Why the United Opposition is no longer at ease as political heat rises

Uneasy calm could be brewing in the United Opposition amid questions whether they are still ‘united’ if circumstances projecting lately are anything to go by.

Questions are emerging over the status of the opposition, which has also been referring to itself as the ‘alternative government’, coming at a time when murmurs point to growing unease, and is now being accused of not inspiring much confidence as was expected.

The United Opposition brings together about six political parties under one umbrella.

They comprise Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the Wiper Patriotic Front Party led by Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua of People’s Liberation Party (PLP), Democratic Action Party–Kenya, headed by Eugene Wamalwa, Democratic Party (DP) led by Justin Muturi and the Jubilee Party represented former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i.

But as days progress and when they are expected to have more unity than ever, reports have indicated growing unease and power play as insights point to Gachagua possibly pushing to run the show, a situation that may not sit well with some.

This is despite the team, in September last year, appointing former United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Secretary-General, Mukhisa Kituyi, as their spokesperson, to, among other things, be their principal voice and strategic coordinator, something which has seemingly not been fully implemented.

Although there has been constant insistence that all is well and that each party in the united opposition is building ground as they prepare to unseat President William Ruto in the next year's General Election, there have been concerns of fragmentation, and if not handled, could put the team on the edge.

Gachagua, for instance, is being accused by some quarters within of high-handedness and his penchant for running affairs with little respect for structure.

Several leaders are said to be pulling away owing to what has been described as Gachagua's rough style of politics, which some feel uncomfortable about.

What was once considered as an alliance of like-minded seasoned leaders could now be turning into competing strategies as opposed to forging a united front they often speak about.

Signs of a split manifest in what appears to be different wings emerging, Kalonzo, Gachagua, Wamalwa and Muturi on one side then Karua and Matiang’i on the other, and seem to be pulling in different ways.

Individuals privy to happenings of the United Opposition have pointed to a general feeling of bulldozing Karua and Matiangi as schedules are drawn without involving them, for instance, they draw plans to popularise their parties, and then a programme is unleashed.

“Sometimes, they have been forced to abandon schedules they initially had. They do not always sit together to plan as an outfit, and there is a general feeling of campaign by ambush. There is a need for a coordinated plan because the one common goal for them all is to unseat Ruto,” said a source.

Again, a retreat to deliberate on the way forward had been planned in February but did not take place and two months down the line, there has been no mention of it.

 A taskforce headed by former Agriculture Minister Kipruto Arap Kirwa was constituted to look into mechanisms of coalition building and basic ethical code of conduct that each and every member must sign to remain in the coalition, as part of a broader effort to strengthen the opposition after internal disagreements but the outcome is awaiting implementation.

Another bone of contention is the formula on which they should adopt to pick a flag bearer and while Matiang’i roots for a scientific approach, others are in favor of a boardroom decision, and the elephant in the room is that time is running fast and fears of ambushing the process are rife.

Notable absence in the last few weeks among the united team is the Jubilee Deputy Party Leader, Dr Fred Matiang’i and People’s Liberation Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua, with the entire team only spotted together during former Senator Daniel Karaba’s burial.

Both of them have recently been conducting independent tours, with Karua saying she will be doing more PLP work to ensure their voice becomes more significant.

According to Karua, the coalition may have unity of purpose but still, the individual character of each party and candidates must stand even as she states that in a coalition, there are common things that people believe in but must be grounded by rules.

“How will Kenyans be able to grade all the contenders unless, apart from being together, we also market ourselves separately? … We have not agreed on the agenda as yet. We have a technical team that has done the work but we have not gone to retreat to bring that document to even sign on the basic operational rule, how we ought to operate as we move together. That is yet to be done,” she said in an interview a few days ago.

This weekend, for instance, Karua launched the ‘purple train’ which started off in Kirinyaga and continued to Nyeri on Saturday.

“A movement built on justice, service, and leadership that actually works for the people. The People's Liberation Party is a home for every Kenyan who believes in a better and fairer Kenya. A home for change. Together, we move towards a Kenya we know is possible,” Karua posted on her social media platforms.

Matiang’i, on the other hand, was this week building ground for Jubilee initially in Nakuru and later on in the week met with Kisii, Migori, and Kuria delegates, where he urged them to deepen their grassroots engagement and stay grounded in the principles and ideals that define their party.

“We must restore order, uphold the rule of law, and protect every Kenyan without fear or favor. In 2027, I offer a clear commitment to fix what is broken and rebuild a nation grounded in justice, accountability, and opportunity for all. Let’s fix Kenya!” said Matiang’i.

On the other hand, Gachagua, Kalonzo, and Muturi were first in Ukambani and then moved to the Coast region, where they  have been insisting on the desire for change in governance and political discipline, which they say has been lacking in the past three years.

Recently, Mukhisa said that there is the challenge of institutional development as alternative government, which means the development of a secretariat, preparation and operationalization of code of conduct, ethics, issues of inclusion among other things.

He says there has been significant pressure to pick a presidential candidate early and start building a campaign around that person but decided not to on grounds that they had no idea who is out there and thinking of becoming a presidential candidate and what other groups would morph into political forces.

“To foreclose on their ambitions would be to narrow the choices from which we are picking a candidate so let the movement grow and the capacity to cultivate public commitment to alternative leadership growth, let others with ambitions walk out of the woods and then at an appropriate time we get different rivers that have flown into this lake,” Kituyi defended the united opposition.

These, as Muturi has termed, are normal issues that may arise in a coalition, but nothing cannot be resolved.

“Discontent in the processes such as the one that we are involved in is normal, but should be contained within the ranks through discussions and accommodation,” he said.

But Makueni Senator, Dan Maanzo insisted that the United Opposition has organized itself, saying that Karua had not been around for some time, and it is normal to go to her home upon her return, while Matiang’i had already planned a function in Kisii.

“We need to attack from different sides, we all know what we are doing, we know the role of each one of us… people are reading too much into nothing. The main idea of every Kenyan is sending Ruto home. We know all the teams working for one term are together, we are in Mombasa, others are in Western and we are working from different fronts,” Maanzo said.

Already, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, a harsh government critic, has ruled out Gachagua as his presidential candidate.

“We share a history in provincial administration, we speak frankly about issues affecting the people and I’m sure he does not want any other Kenyan to go through what he did just by speaking out… I would not support him as a presidential candidate because I believe it should rotate. Mt Kenya has had it for over 30 years. If Gachagua’s community insists on having the presidency, it creates unhealthy competition,” Natembeya said.

Amidst the challenges, they insist that they are intact and dismiss claims of a rift saying the government is fueling a wedge between them.