Fight for numbers: Why Ruto's political footing looks fragile

When President William Ruto spoke on Thursday, his utterances exposed a rare moment of political vulnerability as he voiced frustration over what he termed “humiliating” voter apathy within his Rift Valley stronghold.

Pundits say the desperation exposed a President putting on a brave face, cognisant of the fact that he will find it difficult to win the 2027 presidential contest without sufficient numbers in his home turf.

The President faces myriad challenges ranging from the hostility in Mt Kenya, fueled by his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua, and a restless voting bloc in Western, angling towards Senator Edwin Sifuna and Governor George Natembeya.

“These two regions that gave him substantial votes are slipping away, and that is why he now needs every Kalenjin vote in his bag, but the numbers from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission are not encouraging,” says an MP from North Eastern and a Ruto ally.

Speaking during the burial of Edwin Kipchirchir, father to Roads Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir, this week, Ruto delivered a stern lecture, warning that his region’s reluctance to register as voters could jeopardise his 2027 re-election bid.

The President claimed that 2.3 million voters from the Kalenjin do not vote and that another 500,000 individuals who have attained age 18 had not applied for identity cards, rendering them ineligible to vote.

“We have 1.3 million Kalenjins who have identity cards but have not registered as voters, yet I am struggling to beg for votes from other communities, while we have our own voters simply idling around. Please, please help me, if you truly love me as you say,” said Ruto.

The President called out his community for allegedly neglecting him. “You know I do not like to use my vernacular language, especially at a burial and in the presence of other communities, but allow me today, briefly, to say one thing,” the President said.

It is telling that his fears came barely a week after Sifuna and his Linda Mwanachi brigade held an earth-shaking rally in Kisumu, another area where Ruto thought was safely in his bag following his broad-based government deal with Oburu Odinga and Gladys Wanga’s ODM wing of Linda Ground.

Despite the President’s lamentations, data relayed by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) actually shows Rift Valley is leading the nation with 671,958 new voters - yet this still falls significantly short of the region’s total potential, leaving the incumbent feeling exposed.

In counties such as Bomet, 44,637 new voters were registered as of April 28. Kericho recorded 52,290 new voters, Nandi 52,630, Baringo 38,388, Elgeyo Marakwet 29,740, Uasin Gishu 64,774, Nakuru 102,207, Kericho, Narok 46,794, Samburu 19,418, West Pokot 39,605, Turkana 58,428, and Kajiado 55,013.

Coming in second was Mt Kenya with 399,220 new voters. This includes 67,651 new voters in Meru, Nyeri 46,552, Kirinyaga 36,617, Muranga 49,791, Kiambu 128,859, Nyandarua 20,467, Embu 22,999, and Tharaka Nithi with 26,284 new voters.

The President’s worry, however, could be the underwhelming numbers registered in the Kalenjin-speaking counties of Uasin Gishu, 64,774; Nandi, 52,630; Kericho, 52,290; Baringo, 38,388; and Elgeyo Marakwet, 29,740.

In Nyanza, 278,185 voters were registered, reiterating the Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) foothold even as the party navigates its cooperation framework with Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) under the broad-based government arrangement.

Other regions such as Nairobi, which has been a traditional battleground in national politics, recorded 276,886 new voters, while the Coast added 198,314, and Lower Eastern 191,886, and North Eastern recorded 97,859.

The President’s remarks came amid rising political tension across the country, as various formations explore ways to oust him in next year’s election. Ruto has been under intense pressure from Mt Kenya, which voted for him overwhelmingly in the last election but has since shifted its political allegiance following Gachagua’s impeachment.

His efforts to court the ODM support base are also facing headwinds due to internal party wrangles that have resulted in two rival factions. The Orange Party has split into the Linda Mwananchi and the Linda Ground factions.

It is seemingly the reality of UDA’s waning support across the country that led Ruto to strike an emotional tone in Bomet. In a salient admission, the President said low voter registration within his own community had left him politically exposed, forcing him into the uncomfortable position of constantly seeking support elsewhere.

“I go round begging, kneeling, asking for support because I have to consolidate numbers due to people who have failed me—some of whom are in this meeting today,” he said.

Other leaders who attended the burial in Kipketii, Bomet County, included Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and Speaker Moses Wetangula.

The President said he had been reduced to a beggar, moving from one home to another and from one region to the next, blaming his own people, including those present at the burial.

He insisted that the community had at least 2.3 million unregistered voters, making his task more difficult and forcing him to seek support from other communities despite being the President. 

He took a swipe at some community members allegedly present at the burial, whom he claimed were not registered voters.

“Among them is one who speaks loudly and is seen in centres and towns declaring support, belief and love for Ruto, yet he has nothing!” he lamented.

“Are you listening? I am saying help me. What must I say to convince you to help so we can minimise the begging?” he asked.

The President said once they register as voters, he would find time to return home, visit them, share stories and spend time together. “If I come home and we share stories and there is nothing… have you heard me? Do you want me to beg and say please, or what do you expect me to do?” he asked again.

President Ruto said he had instructed leaders from the community to mobilise voters and ensure his path to retaining the presidency is smooth, without the need for him to beg again.

Political rivals have since been quick to pounce on the narrative, with former DP Gachagua attributing President Ruto’s apathy to a sense of neglect within the Rift Valley.

Gachagua, who was speaking a day after the remarks by Ruto, accused the President of shifting his focus toward other regions, specifically Mount Kenya and Nyanza, leading to a sense of abandonment in the Rift Valley.

“I have seen William Ruto crying at home in Bomet; he has been rejected by all Kenyans, and now he has returned home in shame. People are listening to him there and asking, ‘Why do you only come here to church and funerals? Why are you coming here in tears?” Gachagua said.

Politician Alfred Keter,a longtime critic of the President and his Kenya Kwanza administration, also did not hold back, accusing the Head of State of taking the Kalenjin for granted.

“William Ruto has always been taking the Kalenjin voters for granted, but he has now realised that things are tough. One-term is one-term. Save Kenyans from the hiked fuel prices first,” stated Keter.

Pundits now term the lamentations by President Ruto as a desperate move to consolidate his support base, reeling from the spectre of being relegated to a one-term Presidency.