Broad-based government losing ground nationwide, survey shows

Support for the broad-based government arrangement between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has sharply declined in the months following Raila’s death, with a new TIFA survey revealing growing public discontent, deepening ODM divisions and shifting political loyalties ahead of the 2027 General Election.

According to the survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11 2026, 56 per cent of Kenyans now oppose the Broad-Based Government (BBG), compared to just 30 per cent who support it.

The figures mark a significant reversal from November 2025, when support for the BBG stood at 44 per cent against 48 per cent opposition.

“TIFA’s last four surveys reveal that while support for the BBG is higher than it was a year ago, the increase in its support seen over the previous two surveys has now dropped, nearly returning to its modest August 2025 level,” the report states.

The poll shows that the political arrangement has lost ground in nearly all regions of the country, including areas previously viewed as supportive of the UDA-ODM cooperation.

In Western Kenya, support for the BBG dropped from 62 per cent in November 2025 to 29 per cent in May 2026. In Central Rift, President Ruto’s political base, support declined from 60 per cent to 32 per cent.

In Nyanza, Raila’s traditional stronghold, support fell from 59 per cent to 49 per cent, while Lower Eastern registered one of the sharpest drops, from 38 per cent to 19 per cent.

‘’Even at the Coast, where support slightly improved from 23 per cent to 26 per cent, the BBG still remains unpopular among a majority of respondents,’’said Tom Wolf,the CEO at TIFA.

The survey links the growing resistance partly to internal wrangles within ODM following Raila’s death and the battle over the party’s future direction.

“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people-centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government,” Wolf noted.

The findings show that 73 per cent of ODM supporters back the Linda Mwananchi faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, while only 24 per cent support the pro-government Linda Ground camp associated with Oburu Odinga.

Among ODM supporters opposed to the BBG, support for the Sifuna-led faction rises to 90 per cent.

The poll further shows that ODM supporters are increasingly rejecting any plan to back President Ruto’s re-election in 2027.

According to the report, only 8 per cent of ODM supporters want the party to support Ruto on a UDA ticket, while another 8 per cent would support him only if he contested under ODM.

In contrast, 32 per cent want ODM to field its own presidential candidate, while 21 per cent prefer the party backs another opposition figure.

“A slim majority of ODM supporters support having an opposition candidate to challenge President Ruto in next year’s election,” the report stated.

The survey also highlights  a steady collapse in the dominance previously enjoyed by ODM and UDA nationally.

It noted that ODM support has fallen from 32 per cent during the 2022 election period to 18 per cent currently, while UDA has dropped from 38 per cent to 17 per cent.

At the same time, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) linked to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has doubled its support from 9 per cent in September 2025 to 16 per cent in May 2026.

“The findings suggest a significant decline in support for both ODM and UDA compared to their August 2022 levels, highlighting possible voter fatigue, shifting political loyalties and growing uncertainty within the political landscape,” Wolf said.

Despite the decline in support for the BBG, President Ruto still leads the fragmented 2027 presidential race with 24 per cent support nationally.

However, the opposition vote remains divided among Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 per cent, Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Sifuna at 10 per cent and Gachagua at 9 per cent.

The survey also found that only one-third of Kenyans believe the country currently has a strong opposition, with many respondents saying the broad-based arrangement has weakened oversight and accountability.

Among those opposed to the BBG, 41 per cent said the arrangement mainly benefits political leaders rather than ordinary wananchi, while 27 per cent argued it weakens opposition oversight.