ODM's moment of reckoning: Why Kisumu rally will test party unity

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is staggering towards a make-or-break period as a cocktail of perceived political missteps by the party’s top brass threatens to drive the last nails in the historic party’s political coffin.

Today, supporters allied to party leader Oburu Oginga will be convening in Kisumu to attend what they describe as the Luo declaration and have billed it to be the mother of all rallies.

The meeting comes about a month after another faction of ODM led by Siaya Governor James Orengo, embattled Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino held a major rally in the lakeside town and launched scathing attacks on the Oburu faction and the Kenya Kwanza government.

Since Friday, dozens of boda boda operators clad in matching reflectors and chanting pro-ODM and pro-government slogans have been rallying residents to turn up for the event.

The rally, which leaders say will mark the beginning of ODM’s grassroots re-engagement ahead of the 2027 General Election, is expected to bring together supporters, elected leaders, party officials, and grassroots mobilizers from across the Nyanza region and beyond.

But despite an intense, three-week mobilisation campaign by the party stalwarts for residents to attend in their masses, instability orchestrated by the party’s alleged lack of ambition casts a dark cloud on the party’s efforts to rejuvenate its grassroots support.

In the last four months alone, Dr Oburu’s actions, statements and changing political goalposts has left party stalwarts puzzled, weakening the party in the process and reducing its leverage for any negotiations with President William Ruto’s UDA party.

Last week, the party made several strides backwards after Oburu threw in the towel for a bigger political position by declaring that he would be defending his Senate seat in next year’s elections.

Earlier, Oburu had assured Ruto’s deputy Kithure Kindiki that they are not after his seat. On the flipside, he had also claimed that as the party leader, he is the party’s presidential candidate should they opt to compete for the presidency.

But as the cluster of confusion continues, observers believe Oburu has opened another battlefront with party members who had been hoping that the party leader would open space for younger leaders to compete for the Siaya senator’s position.

His return means that the party leader will have to compete with his juniors for the party certificate in party primaries, a move some critics believe dims Oburu and shows his alleged incompetence in running the ODM party.

Similarly, party chairperson Gladys Wanga also declared that she would be fighting for a second term in office as the governor of Homa Bay.

Both, alongside their allies, had earlier indicated that the party would negotiate for a bigger role in Ruto’s government and were eyeing the deputy presidency as well as negotiating as equal partners.

All that now appears to be water under the bridge as members of Oburu’s faction mull ways for their own political survival.

Some observers believe that the party’s top brass are political puppets pulling the strings for Ruto under the pretence of rallying the region to a common political goal.

Strategic Communications consultant Barrack Muluka argues that the ODM faction led by Oburu is being controlled by an unseen hand, and that the party will keep flip-flopping in the direction their master wants.

“They are a puppet on the strings being pulled by a master puppeteer,” said Dr Muluka.

Muluka likened the Oburu ODM faction to a headless chicken that flip-flops depending on what the master wants to do with it.

According to party insiders, the intense mobilisation for residents to attend the meeting in Kisumu is a stark contrast to the past, where ODM never invested heavily in mobilisation and instead just announced the dates and venue for its rallies. They argue the new moves presents ODM as a weak party.

An MP, who asked not to be named, told The Sunday Standard that the lack of a proper agenda for the Kisumu meeting, apart from rallying the region to back Ruto’s reelection, presents Oburu’s faction as a weakling and contradicts the late party leader Raila Odinga’s political ideologies.

“We are struggling. But we are optimistic that we will be able to turn the tide. It is hard convincing people to join and back our train when we do not have any concrete ambitions for a lucrative slot in the next government,” said the MP.

At the apex of the party is a man some insiders say they have already lost hope in and liken his efforts to rejuvenate the party as feeble and money-driven.

Within the larger Jaramogi Oginga Odinga family, Oburu appears to be struggling to rally it to speak in one voice and rally in a similar political direction.

Party supporters will be waiting to see if Oburu’s younger sister and Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga, as well as Raila’s daughter Winnie Odinga will attend the much-publicised event. The two are among those sailing in a different direction and have openly questioned the party’s push for a deal with President Ruto and the seeds of divisions they believe have been sown to kick some party veterans out.

A close ally of Winnie told The Sunday Standard that she will not attend her uncle’s planned mega rally in Kisumu.

Crafted under the need to push for unity of the Luo community, it remains to be seen the magic wand Oburu will pull to strengthen a party that appears to be in tatters.

Yesterday, as other party officials allied to Oburu made final touches on their preparations for the event, Orengo was leading an anti-Ruto and anti-Oburu campaign in Mbita, Homa Bay. This despite a last-ditch effort by Oburu’s allies to convince Orengo and his brigade to reunite with them.

“The truth is Raila left us with a very strong party but it has been auctioned. They are now saying there is no position they want and will only be defending their seats,” Orengo said.

Orengo believes the Oburu-led faction has betrayed the course and claims they have prioritised personal comfort over the concerns of the party’s supporters.

Communication expert Charles Nyambuga says ODM is in a critical stage right now but believes the unity of the party could have made it stronger.

”The two factions are actually very interdependent on each other and would be stronger together rather than separately,” Prof Nyambuga says.

Constitutional lawyer Clifford Obiero believes that both Oburu and Wanga were never interested in pursuing any national seat.

Obiero says their main focus seemed to be consolidating control of the party machinery itself.

That is why Oburu, viewed as a less aggressive and more moderate figure, was strategically positioned to lead the party while influence continued to be exercised from behind the scenes. Even in public appearances and speeches, that reality often comes through quite clearly,” Obiero says.

He says that what is being witnessed now points to a party that has gradually lost direction, footing, and ideological clarity.

”Historically, ODM never needed to market itself in Kisumu. During Baba’s peak political era, support came naturally and effortlessly because the party’s identity and connection with the people were solid and unquestioned,” he says.

Obiero opines that the attempt to aggressively market and popularise the rally in ODM’s traditional stronghold is therefore being interpreted by many political observers as an effort to politically resuscitate a party that appears to be in a coma.

The Oburu-led faction, however, is projecting confidence ahead of the rally and believes they are on the right track.

Speaking in Kisumu after a consultative meeting with the Luo Council of Elders,  Wanga, the ODM national chairperson, said the rally is aimed at strengthening unity within the party while also reaching out to ODM supporters.