Bleak future for Kindiki after Ol Kalou defeat

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is walking an increasingly precarious political tightrope as growing uncertainty over his influence in Mt Kenya exposes one of President William Ruto's biggest re-election challenges ahead of the 2027 General Election.

When he assumed office on November 1, 2024, the president’s inner circle had hoped he was the missing part of the puzzle to nail down support in the Mt Kenya region and shape the president’s influence in a region where they had commanded significant support just two years earlier.

But all is not well for Kindiki after an embarrassing and catastrophic week for the UDA government after the party was convincingly handed a devastating defeat in Ol Kalou by-elections, a development that observers believe has deep implications on Kindiki’s political future.

The man who had been tipped to be President William Ruto’s safe pair of hands in the Mt Kenya region is rapidly spiralling into a shaky pair of hands, unable to nail down significant support for the Head of State as he loses the popularity contest to former Deputy Rigathi Gachagua.

He had hoped to build a reputation as a vote-getter and a mobilizer for Ruto in Mt Kenya, and for a start, he had ticked several checkboxes. He possesses academic acumen, an experienced officer of the court, and is a quiet political operative Ruto’s think tanks believed was able to soberly rally masses to his cause.

However, the stars appear aligned against Kindiki’s wishes, and how he handles his political playbook in the next few months is a puzzle many are waiting to see. Observers believe he is a man walking on eggshells, and how he handles the thickening clouds of dissent against his boss from Mt Kenya has strong implications for his political future.

The waves are snorting against his wishes, and time is not on his side as the campaign fever for next year’s General Elections gathers momentum. The battlefronts are many, and the solutions are limited.

Firstly, Kindiki has to regroup and project confidence after the Ol Kalou loss, and come up with a response on how to rejuvenate the support for UDA that appears to be rapidly sliding away. He is also facing a reenergized nemesis, Gachagua, who is using the victory as a springboard to build an anti-Ruto wave in the region.

As this happens, an army of unfaithfuls is developing within the ruling coalition with an eye on Kindiki’s slot as Ruto’s running mate for next year’s polls. The calls have become more glaring after the Ol Kalou loss, further complicating matters for Kindiki. 

Within UDA and their allies in ODM, the drums of realignments are beating hard. If Ruto can't get anything from Mt Kenya, Nyanza and Western are waiting, they say.

The contagion is swiftly spreading across the ruling coalition and their partners in ODM as the jostling for his position continues. Within ODM, political titans view Kindiki’s position as an opening that is up for grabs despite an earlier claim by the party leader that they are not after Kindiki’s position.

ODM leaders from Western, Nyanza, and Coast are building negotiation teams for their region as formal talks of a pre-election agreement begin. In Western, a section of leaders have thrown their weight behind Oparanya to deputize Ruto, while Coast is lobbying for Blue Economy CS Hassan Joho.

Within the Kenya Kwanza coalition, Kindiki’s own allies appear to have turned their back on him and are among those drumming up support for his replacement, but with a caveat that the replacement should come from their regions.

On Friday, after the embarrassing loss in Ol Kalou where UDA’s candidate Samuel Nyagah garnered a dismal 5,450 votes against DCP’s Sammy Kamau’s 35, 440 votes, Bungoma Governor led Western leaders in calling for the president to consider handing over the deputy position to Western Kenya, describing the loss as a wake-up call to the president.

"The President should consider giving Western Kenya the deputy president's slot. Together with the many development projects already underway that will further consolidate support for his re-election," he said.

Sirisia MP John Waluke echoed the sentiments, saying leaders from the region had resolved to back President Ruto's second-term bid but expected Western Kenya to be rewarded with the running mate position. They are routing for National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula to replace Kindiki.

"We are asking the President to consider Western Kenya for the deputy president's position, and we believe Wetang'ula is best suited for that role," Waluke noted.

ODM, too, has made it clear they are lobbying for his post as the party begins formal talks with UDA and are drafting a joint-campaign manifesto.

Yesterday, a senior ODM official told Sunday Standard that the position of the deputy presidency is among the priority items the party is pitching to the president’s camp as part of their pre-election agreement.

The party stalwarts believe they can translate a majority of the late Raila Odinga’s over 7 million votes to make up for the holes in Mount Kenya region where hopes for Ruto to recapture significant support are dwindling by the day.

“ODM is the largest party after UDA and we are convinced that the deputy presidency should be reserved for the party. Our party leader has already made it clear that we won't go for the presidency and that leaves the deputy presidency as our next and viable option,” said the leader.

"From what I see, however, the President is unlikely to rush into replacing Deputy President Kithure Kindiki. Releasing Kindiki would mean appointing someone else, and that could trigger fresh political complications. For now, he would rather stick with the person he already has".

But Kindiki’s woes are his own making. Critics believe he has failed to rally the region to back the president and has not moderated the constant attacks against perceived critics by the government. Others believe he has failed to inspire the government to implement projects.

Within his stint in power, the region that barely witnessed protests in the past has borne the brunt of destructive protests against the government, further clouding Kindiki’s influence to control a populace that Gachagua claims he has a grip on.

For Kindiki, the situation has been complicated by his failure to consolidate influential leaders from the region to help him galvanise support for Ruto. They say there cannot be two suns in the sky, but for Kindiki’s backyard, his failure to model himself as the only sun in the sky has led to the sprouting of several suns, all angling to please their master Ruto.

In one end, Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku has been leading a separate drive to market Ruto in the region, while other allies have also been on their own.

He has also made several efforts to challenge Gachagua by responding to some of the personal attacks, including the mockery of how he speaks.

In Ol Kalou, Kindiki attempted to deploy the same strategy that Gachagua had deployed but also made spirited campaigns himself for the UDA candidate. Send junior allies to face off with the DCP candidate, albeit with support from state machinery and monetary gifts. While Gachagua’s Senator Methu took the plaudits for the success, the likes of Moses Kuria were left licking their wounds as Kindiki suffered a spectacular failure.

The mockery of how he speaks and claims that he does not command respect from his tone alone hasn’t done him any better. Kindiki has pitched tent in the region, dedicated government resources to help with the push for the region to reaccept Ruto but to no significant change.

Leaders from Nyeri, Laikipia and Kiambu who spoke to The Standard argue that attempts to establish a new political foundation in the region through Deputy President Kithure Kindiki have not produced the expected results, claiming that Gachagua still commands stronger grassroots influence.

They point to the recent Ol Kalou by-election, where the Democratic Congress Party (DCP) secured victory, as evidence of changing political dynamics in Mt Kenya. They also compare it with the Mbeere North by-election, where they argue the UDA candidate’s victory was narrow despite Kindiki taking a leading role in the campaigns.

However, President Ruto’s allies have maintained that political support is not permanent and that voters will ultimately judge the government based on development, economic recovery efforts and service delivery before the 2027 General Election.

Nyeri County Assembly Speaker James Gichuhi Mwangi said President Ruto faces a difficult task convincing Mt Kenya voters to return to his side, claiming that the region has lost confidence in his administration.

“Ruto should know that the mountain is gone. They will not vote for him because he lied to the people,” said Gichuhi.

He argued that many voters in the region supported Ruto in 2022 because they believed his promises on economic transformation and better opportunities, but he claimed that the expectations created during the campaigns had not been met.

According to Gichuhi, the political fallout between Ruto and Gachagua was a turning point that changed the relationship between the President and Mt Kenya voters.

“Ruto thought impeaching Gachagua and replacing him with Kithure Kindiki would give him political mileage in the mountain, but that did not work,” he said.

Gichuhi argued that Kindiki’s appointment did not automatically transfer the political support that Gachagua had built over years through grassroots engagement.

He said Mt Kenya politics has historically been driven by personal connections, local networks and the ability of leaders to mobilise voters at the grassroots level, rather than positions held in government.

The Speaker also accused the government of using intimidation tactics to regain political influence in the region, linking his claims to events witnessed during the Ol Kalou by-election.

Laikipia politician Charles Nyawira PK also questioned whether Deputy President Kindiki could deliver the same political numbers that Gachagua helped mobilise for President Ruto in 2022.

“Kindiki cannot deliver massive votes for Ruto from the mountain compared to Rigathi Gachagua. You can see how Rigathi has managed to consolidate not only the mountain but also the whole country,” Nyawira said.

He argued that Gachagua had managed to expand his political message beyond Mt Kenya by presenting himself as a defender of ordinary citizens who feel excluded or frustrated by government policies.

“He is fighting for everybody not to be oppressed by the William Ruto regime,” Nyawira said.

Lawyer and Nyeri politician Stanley Gacheru Wabandi similarly argued that President Ruto’s support in Mt Kenya in 2022 was largely based on voluntary mobilisation by residents who believed his leadership would protect their interests.

“In 2022, Ruto did not buy votes. People from Mt Kenya campaigned for him freely because he had promised to protect their interests in terms of development and economic development,” he said.

He argued that voters in the region expected the administration to focus on improving livelihoods, creating economic opportunities and supporting businesses.

Gacheru said the UDA candidate in Mbeere North won by a narrow margin despite Kindiki leading the campaigns, while DCP secured a decisive victory in Ol Kalou even without Gachagua personally taking charge of the campaigns.

“That shows Rigathi still has more command on the ground than Kindiki,” he said.

Kiambu politician John Mwaura said President Ruto has a difficult task convincing Mt Kenya voters to support him again, claiming that dissatisfaction with his administration remains high.

“Kindiki is a victim of circumstances. He cannot consolidate votes,” he said.

For President Ruto, the challenge is rebuilding a coalition that was anchored on strong grassroots networks and personal relationships with voters. His allies, however, maintain that political loyalty can shift and that delivery of government programmes will influence voters before 2027.

In the region, Murega Baichu, the husband of former Meru Governor Kawira Mwangaza, released a song urging Kenyans to reject both Ruto and Kindiki.

In the track titled Fagia Wote (Reject all of them), Mr Baichu has appealed to Kenyans not to vote for Ruto-Kindiki and their allied MPs in the National Assembly and the Senate.