Gachagua: Voter numbers to determine Opposition's flagbearer

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has reiterated that the United Opposition's presidential candidate will be determined by the number of votes each principal can marshal.

Gachagua maintained that he has consolidated eight million votes from the Mt Kenya region and another two million from the South Rift and Maa regions, saying he remains the best-placed presidential candidate to face President William Ruto in next year's polls.

"The science of politics is numbers. For you to be elected President, numbers are central. Other considerations such as age, education, competence and handsomeness, or otherwise, are secondary," he said in an interview with The Standard on Wednesday.

He maintained that while scientific polls are useful, the reality of politics lies in the number of votes a presidential candidate can consolidate across regional voting blocs.

"I have consolidated the 3.8 million votes that supported Ruto in the 2022 General Election, the 1.2 million votes that went to the late ODM leader Raila Odinga and an additional 1.6 million eligible voters who did not turn out. My party will also get 50 per cent of the Rift Valley vote, especially in the South Rift," said Gachagua.

According to the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader, the outcome of the recently concluded Ol Kalou by-election confirmed that he had firmly rallied the region behind him.

He claimed that, were it not for voter suppression, the constituency would have recorded a 98 per cent turnout instead of 57 per cent, alleging that government-allied leaders used goons to suppress voter turnout.

"The electorate only voted between morning and midday. Goons were later unleashed to discourage them from coming out to vote. Had they not used that strategy, the UDA candidate would only have managed a single-digit vote share," he said.

He said the resilience demonstrated by voters had convinced the Opposition that the government could be defeated next year and that voter bribery and the use of State resources to influence voters would not succeed because Kenyans would protect their votes.

"The by-election has given us confidence that votes will be protected and the electorate cannot be intimidated. We already knew the region had abandoned Ruto, but the Ol Kalou verdict was the ultimate testament," he said.

He claimed: "The people of Ol Kalou took the government's money, received two boats, Sh14.4 billion worth of development projects and Sh1.5 billion in cash, yet still denied the UDA candidate their votes. This shows that Ruto can no longer deceive the electorate the way he did in 2022 with the hustler-versus-dynasty narrative and the bottom-up economic agenda."

At the same time, Gachagua urged his fellow principals to consolidate support in their respective regions so that, when the time came to choose the coalition's presidential candidate, each would place their numbers on the table.

He, however, assured Kenyans that if his colleagues persuaded him that he was not the strongest candidate, he would support whoever emerged through the agreed formula.

Other co-principals in the United Opposition, including People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua and Jubilee Deputy Party leader Fred Matiang'i, have maintained that a verifiable scientific process is necessary to identify the coalition's presidential candidate.

Last month, Karua insisted that political negotiations alone were insufficient to determine the strongest candidate to face Ruto, arguing that the process must reflect the views of Kenyans.

"We all want this government out and a better government in. One way of achieving that is by presenting a credible candidate who resonates with a majority of Kenyans across the country," she said.

She proposed a nationwide presidential primary-style process, acknowledging that it might be difficult to organise but suggesting that scientific polling could form one of the key tools in guiding the selection.

Matiang'i has repeatedly maintained that scientific polling is the most rational and transparent approach to selecting the coalition's flag bearer.

Gachagua's remarks yesterday underscored that the Opposition had yet to agree on the formula for selecting its presidential candidate, although he maintained there was still sufficient time.

"In 2002, the late Mwai Kibaki was declared the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) presidential candidate only two months before the General Election. We are not in a hurry," he said.

Asked about Democratic Party (DP) leader Justin Muturi's decision to endorse Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka as his preferred candidate, Gachagua said Muturi was entitled to his opinion.

"Just like Muturi, former Meru Governor Peter Munya said Matiang'i was his preferred presidential candidate. As for me, I don't have one because I believe I am the best candidate," he said.

Defending his recent appeal urging tourists to avoid visiting Kenya because of rising insecurity and goonism, Gachagua said his remarks were intended to protect the tourism industry in the long term.

"When tourist Judith Tebbutt was kidnapped in Lamu in 2011, it took us more than eight years to recover. The international media discussed that incident for a long time. It is better for the sector to suffer for one year than to damage its reputation for many years," he said.

He added: "It is like a family. When there is a major dispute at home, a responsible head of the family postpones visitors. You may lose some immediate benefits, but you protect future relationships."

He said he made the remarks because he did not want to jeopardise the tourism sector while accusing the government of turning Kenya into "a republic of goons".

Turning to his 45-day consultative tour, the former Deputy President said the exercise had not been completed and could be extended following requests from leaders in Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet, Meru, Isiolo and North Eastern.

"The 45 days started on July 16. I took a break to monitor and guide my team during the Ol Kalou by-election. The timeline was never cast in stone, and I may extend it by another month," he said.

He said the consultations would conclude with a meeting with former President Uhuru Kenyatta at his Ichaweri home, where they would discuss strategies for "liberating the country" and the formation of the next administration.

"He is a nationalist and, given his experience, his opinion on how to remove Ruto matters. I will visit him towards the end of my consultative tour," he said.

On his recent conciliatory tone towards Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Gachagua said he had intelligence that pro-Ruto allies were planning to politically undermine him and had instructed his allies to stop attacking Kindiki.

"When one of us is attacked by outsiders, we must protect him. He is under siege, and we shall not fight him," he said.