Hits and misses of Gachagua's 45-day retreat

As former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s 45-day conclave nears its July 31st deadline, his self-imposed political isolation has yielded a mixed bag.

Whereas the opposition leader has been able to consolidate Mt Kenya’s regional support and even forge a path for talks with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, the conclave has  failed to show white smoke on the united opposition’s flagbearer with the principals yet to agree on a definitive formula for naming its forerunner ahead of the 2027 general elections.

And with just two days to the deadline, Gachagua has hopped back on the campaign trail conducting political rallies in the Mt Kenya East region, further signaling what could be the culmination of what has been a beehive of political activity at his Wamunyoro residence.

At the lapse of the 45-day period, Gachagua was expected to present a report of proceedings at his Wamunyoro residence to his political mentor Uhuru Kenyatta at his Ichaweri home, with the duo expected to jointly give political direction to the Mt Kenya electorate.

Gachagua has however since admitted that the 45 days were insufficient and there was need to extend the strategic conversations past the original deadline.

“I had thought I would take forty-five days, but the conversation has become very big. It has gone beyond the mountain. From the way it is looking, I will have to add ten to twelve days,” said Gachagua during an interview on KTN.

Beginning June 16th, the Democracy for Citizens Party(DCP) leader has turned his Wamunyoro residence into a command center bustling with political activity where he has played host to high-profile political players as Gachagua continues to gather his political strategy to dethrone President William Ruto come the general election next year.

At the 43-day mark, Gachagua has been able to record massive wins during his political isolation period such as orchestrating the political defection of leaders to his DCP party, delivering a win in the hotly contested and high-stakes Ol Kalou Parliamentary by-election as well as rallying the Mt Kenya region towards a united front.

During his disappearance from the political stage, Gachagua has been engaging in consultations involving supporters, political allies, opinion leaders, professionals, clergy and other stakeholders to chart the opposition's next move following the court decision to uphold his ouster.

He has held consultations with high-profile leaders such as Jimmy Wanjigi and met with grassroots leaders and party aspirants from Nairobi, Laikipia, Kiambu, Nyandarua, Narok counties, and from Gichugu, Githunguri and Othaya constituencies.

A major outcome of the conclave was registered last week when Muranga Governor Irungu Kangata announced that he had ditched President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party for Gachagua’s DCP.

 “That impeachment (of Gachagua) was ill-advised, was unnecessary and is among the main reasons the government and UDA are in trouble in the Mt Kenya region. That is why some of us feel that aligning with the two in 2027 would be defeatist,” said Kangata in defense of why he crossed the political divide.

His move to a newly formed DCP party now tightens Gachagua’s grip on the vote-rich Mt Kenya region and asserts pressure on President Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid. Kangata’s decision to seek a second term in office on the DCP ticket also solidifies Gachagua’s charm offensive in the region.

The Governor now joins a list of other political players who have jumped ship and joined DCP’s fold. They include Former Nominated Senator Millicent Omanga who defected from UDA, East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) and Nyeri politician Kanini Kega who crossed over from Jubilee and former Othaya MP Gichuki Mugambi. Other leaders from Laikipia County include Charles Ndegwa, Virginiah Wahome, and Stephen Losiagol who defected from the Jubilee Party.

Several MCAs from Kirinyaga county aligned to UDA have also pledged their allegiance to DCP.

Gachagua’s second win came in the way of a resounding victory in the olkalou parliamentary by-election where his candidate Sammy Kariuki floored UDA’s Samuel Muchina. Kariuki garnered a record over 35,000 votes against Muchina’s 5,500. Despite steering clear of the campaigns in the decisive by-election, the former Deputy President used his Wamunyoro residence as a command centre for his troops namely kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia, Nyandarua Senator John Methu and Muranga Senator Joe Nyutu who were leading the charge against a monied UDA front.

Pundits observe that by devising a strategy to steer clear of the by-election, it effectively prevented the contest from morphing into one between him and his successor Kithure Kindiki and took the wind out of the sails of the UDA brigade, consequently relegating the mini-poll to a local affair.

And during DCP’s celebratory press conference on July 17, Gachagua claimed that his party’s win in Ol Kalou served as a preview of what awaited resident Ruto in the forthcoming general polls.

“I am a person who listens to the ground. I listen to the people. All over this country, people have told me they are done with William Ruto. It is finished, Mr. President...The people are resolute that they will not vote for this rogue administration,” he stated.

It is this win that has spurred defections to the DCP party, with Governors Kimani Wamatangi (Kiambu) and Kiarie Badilisha (Nyandarua) being the latest to give indications of their imminent exit from UDA to DCP.

“The 2027 general elections are to communicate to the rest of the counties what Ol Kalou has already shown us that we will no longer tolerate betrayal and that in the Mt Kenya region no amount of bribery can change our resolve nor buy our votes,” said Governor Wamatangi in celebration of DCP’s win in Olkalou.

While Governor Badilisha is yet to officially announce his move to DCP or exit from UDA, utterances in the recent past have had pundits link him to Gachagua’s party.

In a pre-election address to residents, Governor Badilisha called on them to ensure peace and respect the democratic process because “the people have already made their choice”.

“You have spoken and have maintained peace. You have made your decisions. I don’t want to talk about your decision because I know you have already made it. Moving forward, I want to tell you that the green colour symbolizes wealth,” Kiarie said.

His reference to the green colour, which is associated with the DCP party, was indicative.

Professor of Management and Leadership Gitile Naituli now avers that the impact of Gachagua’s conclave was that it asserted that Gachagua was politically relevant post-impeachment and emboldened his claim to the top seat come 2027.

“The outcome in Olkalou proved that Gachagua cannot be ignored when you are talking about politics of the Mt Kenya region. Whereas the opposition failed to identify a flagbearer, Gachagua emerged as a central opposition figure even without stepping onto the chaotic campaign trail and this has propelled him to believe that he is the most viable candidate to go against Ruto,” says Naituli.

On the flipside, the 45-day conclave has so far failed to bring the united opposition together in efforts to identify a flagbearer as initially claimed by Gachagua, signaling a fractured opposition. The consultative isolation also failed to forestall a splintered Olkalou contest as various parties within the opposition fielded candidates in the mini-poll.

In sentiments that laid bare the opposition’s discord, Gachagua last week reiterated that the United Opposition's presidential candidate will be determined by the number of votes each principal can marshal.

Gachagua maintained that he has consolidated eight million votes from the Mt Kenya region and another two million from the South Rift and Maa regions, saying he remains the best-placed presidential candidate to face President William Ruto in next year's polls.

"The science of politics is numbers. For you to be elected President, numbers are central. Other considerations such as age, education, competence and handsomeness, or otherwise, are secondary," he said in an interview with The Standard

At the same time, Gachagua urged his fellow principals to consolidate support in their respective regions so that, when the time came to choose the coalition's presidential candidate, each would place their numbers on the table.

He, however, assured Kenyans that if his colleagues persuaded him that he was not the strongest candidate, he would support whoever emerged through the agreed formula.

Other co-principals in the United Opposition, including People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua and Jubilee Deputy Party leader Fred Matiang'i, have maintained that a verifiable scientific process is necessary to identify the coalition's presidential candidate.