2027: How regions that made Ruto president are now his biggest test

In August 2022, President William Ruto achieved what many political observers had considered improbable.

Defying the political might of the 'handshake' establishment, surviving an intense campaign led by then-President Uhuru Kenyatta against his candidature and overturning decades of conventional political arithmetic, Ruto crafted a coalition that cut across regional and ethnic voting blocs to secure Kenya's presidency.

His victory was not built solely on the unwavering support of the Rift Valley. It rested on a broader political alliance that stretched into Mt Kenya, penetrated Western Kenya and made inroads in parts of Eastern Kenya while limiting his losses in regions traditionally considered opposition strongholds.

That support, which appeared formidable after the 2022 election, is now showing signs of strain.

With political realignments gathering pace ahead of the 2027 General Election, the electoral map that handed Ruto victory is being redrawn. 

Regions that once appeared firmly within Kenya Kwanza's grasp have become contested political frontlines, forcing both the President and the opposition to recalibrate their strategies.

The question confronting Kenya's political class is no longer whether Ruto can expand his support. It is whether he can hold on to the regions that delivered his presidency.

Nowhere illustrates that shift more than Mt Kenya.

 Home to an estimated 5.1 million registered voters, the region was the single biggest prize in the 2022 election. 

Despite Uhuru Kenyatta throwing his weight behind Raila Odinga, the mountain overwhelmingly rallied behind Ruto, persuaded by his Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda and the mobilisation of his running mate, Rigathi Gachagua.

The numbers transformed Mt Kenya into the backbone of Kenya Kwanza's victory.

Four years later, that political fortress has become President Ruto's biggest political headache.

The impeachment of Gachagua fundamentally altered the region's political landscape. Instead of retreating into political obscurity, the former deputy president emerged as one of the administration's fiercest critics, accusing Ruto of betraying the region that stood firmly behind him in 2022.

His public meetings continued to draw thousands, while the opposition increasingly embraced him as its point man in Central Kenya. The recent Ol Kalou by-election, won by the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), further emboldened his allies, who argued that the result reflected growing discontent within a region once regarded as Kenya Kwanza's safest political investment.

Whether that momentum can be sustained until 2027 remains uncertain. What is clear is that Mt Kenya can no longer be treated as guaranteed territory.

Political analyst Suleiman Bashir said the region remained central to President Ruto's re-election prospects because of the numbers it contributed in 2022.

"When we look at how President Ruto came into office, some of the regions that supported him overwhelmingly were Mt Kenya, Western Kenya and the Rift Valley," he said.

"Politics is about numbers. If you lose one support base, you must replace it with an equal number of votes. The President has made gains in parts of North Eastern, the Coast and even Nyanza, but those regions do not give him the numbers that Mt Kenya delivered in 2022," he added.

Bashir argued that President Ruto still faced a difficult political equation.

"For him to win, he still needs the constitutional threshold of 50 per cent plus one. He has lost a lot and has a lot of homework to do between now and 2027,’’ he said.

Western Kenya tells a remarkably similar story. For years, the region largely formed part of Raila Odinga's political base. 

That changed in 2022 when Ruto forged strategic alliances with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula, enabling Kenya Kwanza to make significant gains across Bungoma while becoming increasingly competitive in Kakamega, Busia, Trans Nzoia and Vihiga.

With about 2.6 million registered voters, Western Kenya remains one of the country's most influential electoral blocs.

Today, however, that advantage appears increasingly fragile.The emergence of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna as one of the opposition's most prominent figures has injected fresh momentum into Western Kenya politics. Coupled with intensified opposition mobilisation, the region has once again become a key battleground ahead of 2027.

Bashir said even with the backing of Mudavadi and Wetang'ula, retaining the region would not be straightforward.

"There is new political energy in Western Kenya. It will not be easy for the President to secure the same number of votes he received in 2022. He must find a way of winning over emerging leaders because if you win influential political leaders, you also stand a better chance of winning their followers,” he said.

North Eastern Kenya presents another political puzzle.

Traditionally, the region's approximately 626,000 registered voters overwhelmingly backed Raila Odinga and the opposition. However, the political landscape has become less predictable following the broad-based political arrangement between President Ruto and Raila before Odinga's exit from active local politics.

Whether the opposition can retain the region under a new presidential candidate, or whether Kenya Kwanza can build on recent engagements, remains an open question.

Bashir argued that if support in Mt Kenya continued to decline, President Ruto would have to compensate by posting stronger performances elsewhere.

"If he no longer enjoys the support of Mt Kenya, he must perform exceptionally well in Western Kenya, the Coast, North Eastern and at the same time retain the Rift Valley. That is a much harder political equation than the one he faced in 2022," he said.

Beyond the regional contest, Bashir said Kenya's politics was gradually shifting from ethnic mobilisation towards performance-based politics, particularly among younger voters.

 "The promises President Ruto made in 2022 are now being measured against delivery. Young people are evaluating leaders based on what they have done rather than simply where they come from," he said.

He argued that the growth of digital platforms had accelerated the shift by giving young voters space to debate leadership and government performance.

"Today, people exchange ideas instantly through digital platforms. Leaders are being scrutinised every day, and that is changing how voters make political decisions," Bashir observed.

He explained that the incumbency had also become one of President Ruto's biggest political hurdles.

"In 2022, he presented himself as the alternative through the Bottom-Up agenda. Today, he is being judged on performance, and that has given opposition leaders an opportunity to present themselves as the new alternative,’’ he said.

The opposition, however, faces its own challenge. While it has succeeded in exposing cracks within Kenya Kwanza's coalition, it is yet to settle on a presidential candidate capable of uniting its diverse political interests. Whoever emerges will have to build a coalition broad enough to transcend regional loyalties, just as Ruto did in 2022.

Four years ago, President Ruto's path to State House was built on assembling alliances across Kenya's political divide. As the country edges closer to 2027, those same alliances are being tested.

Mt Kenya, Western Kenya and North Eastern are no longer political fortresses but increasingly competitive battlegrounds. Whether the President can rebuild the coalition that propelled him to power, or whether the opposition can assemble a broader alliance, will shape not only the outcome of the next election but also the future direction of Kenya's electoral politics.