Why political parties are racing against time to forge coalitions ahead of 2027 polls

With just a year to the General Elections and timelines set, Kenya’s political parties are racing against time to forge new alliances and coalitions, with observers arguing that no serious presidential contender can realistically hope to capture power by relying on a single party.

According to observers, the scramble is being driven by the country’s fragmented political landscape, where nearly 100 registered parties are largely built around influential personalities, ethnic and regional interests rather than clearly defined ideologies.

As the 2027 contest draws closer, the political formations, they argue, are therefore being forced to seek partners capable of widening their geographical reach and increasing their chances of winning the presidency, parliamentary seats and positions in the next administration.

And this time around, the emerging political landscape appears to be coalescing around two broad formations, although analysts expect these alliances to undergo significant rebranding and restructuring before the election.

Political analyst Dismus Mokua believes that the probability of a political party winning a presidential election on its own is now "almost zero", making coalitions an unavoidable feature of Kenyan politics.

“For any serious presidential candidate, they must form a coalition,” Mokua says, noting, however, that Kenyan coalitions differ fundamentally from those in established Western parliamentary democracies.

While parties in countries operating under the British Westminster model often come together around political philosophies, policies and ideological positions, he notes, Kenyan formations have traditionally revolved around personalities and electoral calculations.

“In Kenya it is about personalities,” Mokua says. “We have about 100 political parties and most of them come from specific regions and are run by powerful political personalities.”

This reality, he told The Sunday Standard, has ensured that every election cycle produces a fresh political configuration.

In the past, parties that appear powerful in one election often disappear or become marginal in the next, while politicians who were once rivals suddenly find themselves sharing platforms in pursuit of a common electoral objective.

Already, both President William Ruto and the opposition leaders have intensified consultations to expand their influence and consequently increase their chances of winning.

Days ago, Ruto, under his ruling UDA party, and Senator Oburu Oginga-led ODM formed a 10-member committee to draft a joint framework to formalise a coalition of the broad-based arrangement.

The team is expected to come up with a "must-win" manifesto and strategy for President Ruto's re-election bid.

The team, five from each side, emerged from deliberations of a recently held joint Parliamentary Group meeting in Naivasha involving UDA and ODM leaders and chaired by the Head of State.

According to Mokua, President Ruto's side may wait until February to rebrand after the expected resignation of State officials seeking elective positions as required by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

"He is waiting for sometime in February, when public servants are expected to resign. It will be very clear who is with President Ruto and Azimo. He will then restructure his coalition," Mokua said.

Mokua argues that this period could trigger a wave of defections as politicians calculate where their interests are best served and is expected to accelerate the realignment.

On the other hand, the opposition, though appearing to be in a conundrum as leaders pull from different strings on the "right time" to unveil their flagbearer laced with emerging rifts, have also escalated both boardroom and ground efforts to ensure victory.

A section of Mt. Kenya leaders have publicly expressed disappointment with what they termed as "condescending behaviour" by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagau.

Former Cabinet Secretaries Justin Muturi and Peter Munya have accused him of being bullish and 'belittling' their parties.

At the same time, a source privy to the developments in the United Opposition, while acknowledging the simmering rift, intimated to this Publication that it is fuelled by Gachagua feeling uncomfortable with former President Uhuru Kenyatta's weight behind Azimio la Umoja Coalition, which appears to be reactivating.

"When you look at it, it's actually Uhuru Kenyatta who is sending those fellows to speak for him. Because these are Uhuru's friends," he argued. "What I see is that if Gachagua is offended by Uhuru handling Kalonzo."

This, he said, may prompt the Democracy for the Citizens Party leader to consider other options.

"He (Gcahagua) may very well sponsor young leaders like Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna to take on Ruto," he avers, maintaining that "in the event that happens, Ruto still loses."

The arithmetic, he argues, will see Ruto lose the crucial Luyha vote basket.

According to him, this informs the reason behind the "rash" among opposition figures to organise themselves before Ruto takes advantage of the situation and divides them, with the President's rivals agreeing to settle the differences.

“It was agreed that all principals would treat each other as equals going forward and that they will be solving our issues amicably without going public to prevent giving Ruto and government allies fodder to infiltrate and destabilise the Opposition,” a source who attended the opposition's meeting last Tuesday told The Sunday Standard.

After the meeting, Gachagua hailed People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua for bringing together leaders of the United Opposition. “Thank you, my sister, Martha Karua, for being the mother of our liberation and bringing us together,” he said, signaling truce.Prior to the Karua meeting,  Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka had held talks with Azimio affiliates including DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa, Jubilee Deputy party leader Fred Matiang'i, Karua, Muturi, Munya among others, with parties that left expressing interests of rejoining. Some of the meetings have been steered by Uhuru. The new entrant, Sifuna, and his Linda Mwananchi brigade has also made it clear that defeating the current regime requires a concerted effort from the opposition parties.

His sentiments signal intentions of closing ranks with the United Alternative Government to form a broader coalition to face Ruto.

Professor of Leadership and Management Gitile Naituli equally perceives the political matrix in the very direction. 

"While Kalonzo is 1..9 million, when you put the Luhya in the diaspora, you are now approaching four million. So as long as nobody is running alone in Mt. Kenya, Ruto will be defeated," he claims. 

However, while contending with Mokua that no single ethnic or regional voting bloc is sufficiently large to guarantee a presidential victory, he projects a different pattern of voting this time around. That, the electorates, particularly the youth are likely to cast beyond their ethnic bases.

"Because people really are yearning for real change. It may not be business as usual. That is what I am seeing could be tricky," he averred. "They just don't want you to change your personality right now. They want an end to impunity, corruption. looting of public assets. In fact, they are looking for a government that will recover stolen public assets.

Former Kirinyaga county MP Purity Ngirici, while acknowledging that "our politics is very-tribal driven," echoed Prof. Naituli's sentiments saying the current voter could largely be issue-aligned.

"Mwananchi is more focused on delivery, ending bad behaviour among leaders, abductions, and less accidents on the road and extrajudicial killings. People don't want to have selective justice," she opined. 

Mokua places politicians likely to shape the election into different tiers. At the top are those with sufficient political capital to move the national political needle. Gachagua, Kalonzo and other established figures fall within this category because their decisions can influence the direction of entire voting blocs.

The second tier consists of politicians who may not command enormous electoral blocs on their own but possess the ability to influence public opinion and political conversations.

Here, he cited former Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa, for example, as a politician whose recent departure from UDA could have an impact because of her ability to connect with audiences emotionally.

The third tier, according to Mokua, comprises politicians primarily interested in securing positions in the next administration.

This group, he said, includes aspirants and influential political figures who may ultimately gravitate towards whichever coalition appears most likely to form government.

This even as IEBC steps up their preparations towards delivering August 10, 2027, high stakes elections. A week ago the Commission issued strict timelines, scheduling events that will culminate in the polls.

According to the electoral body, political parties are required to submit nominations of their candidates by June 12, while their Independent counterparts are supposed to submit names and symbols to the Commission by May 29.