Which way Sifuna: Options for the Linda Mwananchi leader as rifts emerge within

The past week has seen the Linda Mwananchi movement thrown into turbulence that appears to test its grip in the country's political landscape as reports of differences within its top ranks continue to escalate.

The aftermath of last Sunday's Jacaranda rally saw a section of supporters of the prominent faces of the movement, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East lawmaker Babu Owino, clash in a bitter exchange online, applifying competing narratives that depicted a supremacy battle.

A day after the rally, Babu addressed some of the issues that had emerged, in remarks that have further fuelled speculation over simmering differences within the ODM breakaway faction.

The two-term lawmaker announced that, going forward, he would only attend "some" Linda Mwananchi rallies and shift focus on his Nairobi gubernatorial ambition, even as he assured his support for Sifuna.

“I will support Sifuna as a presidential candidate in 2027. He is our presidential candidate,” Babu said on Monday during a live broadcast on his Facebook handle. 

Professor of leadership and management, Gitile Naituli, sees the emerging friction as a contest over political space and influence within a movement whose prominence has grown rapidly.

He argues that the rivalry reflects a sibling rivalry triggered by what he termed “primitive jealousy" as "Babu did not expect whatever he was doing to be belittling Sifuna."

“The bickering is being driven by what is called primitive jealousy,” Naituli told The Sunday Standard. “Only one person can be a leader at a time.”

Naituli argues that Sifuna’s growing profile  may itself be contributing to the tension, particularly as different political figures seek to associate themselves with a movement that has acquired momentum.

He draws a distinction between the political roles of Sifuna and Babu, saying the two have different strengths and political trajectories that are complementary.

“Sifuna is more peaceful, eloquent and with euphoria while Babu is a big mobiliser,” Naituli said, dismissing reports that President William Ruto's hand may be fuelling the perceived rift.

"I don't want to impugn what people are saying, that William has everything to do with it. But, that one I doubt.  Because nothing can come by James Orengo.That guy has been very idealistic forever. Babu has a future. I also don't believe he will be compromised in order to undermine his friends. So I think these are just what is called the sibling rivalries."

Political analyst Prof Peter Kagwanja says the emerging issues are largely a normal thing, placing the friction within the larger struggle over the political inheritance of the late Raila Odinga's political empire.

“The disintegration started from within the Odinga family,” Kagwanja said. “Then it moved to its loyalists..And it is now beginning to acquire another dimension," he observed.

The tensions are unfolding against a backdrop of growing attempts by several Sifuna allies to persuade him to use their political parties, as the fate of registering Linda Mwananchi as a party remains in limbo.

Already, Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, and Babu are among leaders jostling to have Sifuna contest for president with their parties.

Amisi leads the newly registered Renaissance Party, Natembeya is linked to Ukombozi Party, while Babu has been associated with the Mwananchi Party.

According to Kagwanja, this means an uphill task for Sifuna whom he described as a beneficiary of euphoria and has to find a constituency.

“He's more of a beneficiary of euphoria than what you can call a self-made politician,” Kagwanja said, observing that Sifuna’s challenge is that his political support remains heavily associated with the energy of urban politics and the youth-driven demand for generational change.

He points to Western as one possible base, although he notes that the county is already politically crowded, with established leaders competing for influence.

"Nairobi is nobody's constituency. So Sifuna has to begin carving out a constituency, which is a rural constituency."

Similarly, Naituli believes the immediate challenge is not simply managing the disagreement between supporters of Sifuna and Babu, but ensuring that the movement does not lose momentum because of internal competition.

For him, Sifuna should avoid starting another political party and instead use an existing party to consolidate his position and enter negotiations with other opposition principals, even as he dismissed Amisi's advances

“Sifuna should just grab her party, which is available, then use that party because there is a very small window left before they decide on opposition candidates,” Naituli said.

He added: “He should grab that party by now and use it so he can start sending delegations to the United Opposition. So now when they decide to get the presidential candidates, he becomes part of it.”

But that proposal carries its own political dilemma.

The first term and his team has spent considerable political capital building the Linda Mwananchi identity, and abandoning or changing the platform could create questions among supporters who have come to associate the movement with a new generation of opposition politics.

The Political Parties Disputes Tribunal is expected to rule whether Sifuna can continue to push for registration of Linda Mwananchi as a party after the Registrar of Political Parties declined to allow Sifuna to preserve the name.

Naituli, however, opines that therefore the movement cannot by itself provide the institutional structure required for a presidential contest.

"He needs to use his party. He cannot hang.  If he earns, he will end up becoming like the Gen Zs. They were leaderless,and party-less, and everything collapsed because they didn't have a unit of focus,"

According to Kagwanja, the Linda Mwananchi is a social movement which "can produce useful political change but can also become destructive if they fail to acquire structure."

They argue that the challenges leaves Sifuna facing several simultaneous battles: consolidating his position within Linda Mwananchi, managing relations with Babu and other allies, building a constituency beyond Nairobi and deciding which political party can provide the institutional machinery for a national campaign.

Kagwanja says the contest for leadership of Linda Mwananchi is not over, particularly as the movement seeks to transform itself into a political vehicle.

Naituli believes joining an existing party would allow Sifuna to negotiate from a position of strength within the wider opposition arrangement. Kagwanja, meanwhile, sees the bigger question as whether Linda Mwananchi can transform itself from a social movement into a coherent political force capable of negotiating with other parties.

Kagwanja warns against the movement becoming consumed by internal battles at a time when it needs to broaden its reach.

For now, Sifuna remains at the centre of a political experiment whose direction is yet to be settled.

Whether Linda Mwananchi becomes a party, a coalition vehicle or remains a broader social movement could shape his next chapter.

But equally important will be whether he can contain the emerging tensions with allies such as Babu while building support beyond the urban constituencies where his political profile has grown.

As Kagwanja puts it, the wider battle is part of the continuing contest over Raila Odinga’s political inheritance.

“The battle for the soul of ODM, and the battle for the empire of Raila Odinga continues,” he said. “And like that of Alexander the Great, Raila's empire is being shared among his generals, one of whom is Sifuna.”

"You have to go beyond that self-deception, and join with other political parties," he said.