The big political issues shaping 2027 presidential contest

Recent presidential elections in Kenya have revolved around either key political developments or fallouts among erstwhile allies, events that have been repeatedly used to shape serious campaigning.

Kenyan politics has therefore developed a recurring strategy in every election that produces a defining political debate. They revolve around key developments in the political space or predicaments facing individual candidates.

In 2013, the question was heavily shaped by the International Criminal Court cases facing former President Uhuru Kenyatta and President William Ruto the Deputy President.

Uhuru and Ruto presented the ICC issue through the language of sovereignty, national dignity and resistance to what they portrayed as external interference, turning the cases into a powerful rallying point for their campaign.

By 2017, the question had changed. Having secured the Presidency, Uhuru and Ruto asked voters to allow them to continue with what they called their development agenda.

Then came 2022, when the political question was recast in more populist and class-oriented terms: hustler versus dynasty. Ruto’s campaign sought to present the election as a contest between ordinary Kenyans struggling to survive and an established political elite that had dominated power and economic opportunity.

The “hustler” narrative gave the campaign a language through which economic frustrations, generational aspirations and resentment of political privilege could be expressed.

The pattern raises a bigger question for 2027: what will be the political question that defines the next election?

Already, competing narratives are taking shape. The governing side is likely to defend its record and development agenda, while opposition politicians are increasingly focusing on the cost of living, taxation, debt, unemployment and the perceived failures of the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Presidential aspirants such as Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka have shaped their campaign narrative with the intention to restore good governance, while Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna is riding on adherence to the rule of rule and respect for human rights as his clarion call.

Former Deputy President and the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua have focused on the Wantam (one-term) clarion call to unseat President Ruto maintaining that removing the President from the ballot will solve most problems affecting the country.

Last month, Siaya Governor James Orengo admitted in an interview with Hot 96 that the Opposition had not crystallized on their agenda for change.

“So far what we have not done in the Opposition which I accept is talking about what is our agenda for change. What is the opposition going to do once they take over the government? That part of the dialogue and the discussion is still not very fulfilling,” he said.

He added 'There's a depth of presentations on what the Opposition is going to do from day one, but there's a lot that we have said about what is wrong and very little about fixing what is wrong with the current regime.’

But Safina Party Leader Jimi Wanjigi is challenging the opposition to go beyond simply creating another slogan or coalition around removing Ruto.

He maintained that the political alliances must be accompanied by a concrete economic program that answers what happens to Kenyans after the political contest is over.

His intervention attempts to shift the electoral conversation from ‘Who should occupy the State House?” To “What economic system will change the lives of Kenyans?

He says he has positioned his 2027 campaign around what he calls economic liberation, with proposals touching on taxation, public debt, access to credit, education, manufacturing and agricultural production.

According to Wanjigi, the Constitution already guarantees Kenyans bill of rights, and has created safeguards in the fight against graft and therefore, the next year’s General Election clarion call should be based on economic liberation rather than another personality, ethnic alliance or anti-incumbency slogan becoming the central organizing idea.

“Our Presidency will be consequential. A completely new political and economic order. It will be a rupture of the system. A fundamental reset of the system. We are ushering a pivotal new direction to the people of Kenya and the country for better life, greatness and prosperity,” he said in an interview.

The Safina party leader says he has fashioned his presidential campaign on 'Eliminating Poverty: People – Economy First’, and maintained that his agenda will be focused on a people-centred alternative anchored on economic sovereignty, social justice and democratic renewal.

Wanjigi proposes a dramatic shift in fiscal and financial policy, including a firm “debt brake” to halt runaway borrowing.

His plan includes suspending and cancelling repayment of any unconstitutional or illegal debt pending a comprehensive forensic audit, with the aim of freeing capital, lowering credit costs and stimulating entrepreneurship.

“This pillar is based on the Debt Liberation Covenant. It will be Executive Order Number One. It will free more than Sh2.8 Trillion going outside to pay illegal debt. This is a massive economic stimulus and money to pay core essential services,” he said.

Wanjigi says he presents a radical economic transformation to make Kenya an economic crucible of possibilities and infinite opportunities, saying it will require to lead with vision, innovate with purpose, and grow with equity.

He proposes that competitiveness, innovation, entrepreneurialism, and a dynamic supportive ecosystem will be the fundamental drivers of people’s economy.

Safina also proposes strict adherence to constitutional fiscal discipline, balancing budgets, limiting deficits and aligning public spending with economic growth.

On taxation, Wanjigi promises sweeping reforms, including repealing VAT and replacing it with a sales tax capped below 10 percent, simplifying the tax code and reducing regulatory burdens to stimulate domestic demand, investment and innovation.