ODM's pending implosion post-Raila

The Orange Democratic Party is teetering on the verge of an implosion as more divisions continue to emerge because of the pressure created by the demands of the broad-based government arrangement.

Internal wars, public mudslinging, legal battles and the emergence of warring factions fighting for the soul of the party now threaten to reduce the yesteryear monolithic party into a fractured regional outfit ahead of the 2027 general elections.

A developing pre-election pact between ODM and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has further put pressure on the party, as leaders jostle to take up key influential positions within the larger broad-based government arrangement. Goodies dished out to key leaders by the powers that be to select individuals are also mounting tensions.

A fresh controversy pitting Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo is the latest indicator of the growing fissures within the party. Observers link the tiff to the 2027 gubernatorial contest.

On Tuesday, Millie Odhiambo issued a public warning to Wanga, threatening to retaliate if she (Wanga) allegedly continued to send goons to disrupt her operations in her constituency.

Speaking at a public event, Odhiambo launched a personal attack on Wanga, simultaneously urging her to desist from disruptive politics, lest she have no choice but to show her hand politically.

“Gladys Wanga, I respect you as my younger sister and ODM chairperson, but do not take that for granted. You send people to undermine and attack me in my constituency, and then you sit back and look nice," said Odhiambo.

The MP went on to clarify that she had no interest in the Homa Bay gubernatorial race and

was instead interested in taking a stab at the Presidency come 2032. She also stated that she had voted for the governor in every election and had never campaigned against Wanga but noted the same had not been reciprocated.

She further warned that sustained attacks could force her to react politically.

"If I confront you, I will even tell these people not to vote for you. I know you are firm because the president asked the people to vote for you, but the president does not vote here. I do not know about hidden or underground war. If you continue, my war will be on the surface with you," Odhiambo cautioned.

The development comes amid growing tension within the party over the funding of its operations. According to ODM party guidelines, elected officials are expected to remit monthly fees to the party. MCAs are supposed to pay an amount of Sh3,000 per month, with the Women Representatives and the MPs remitting a monthly amount of Sh10,000. The Governors and Senators pay Sh20,000 each on a monthly basis.

Leaders from the Chungwa party have, however, in the recent past criticised the manner in which party finances are utilised by the officials and questioned why they are again asked to go out of pocket to fund the party activities such as mobilisation for rallies and for purchase and branding of party merchandise.

Some party officials like Kisii Governor Simba Arati have expressed disgust that UDA yellow colours have been overshadowing ODM's yellow at meetings convened by President Ruto in Nyanza recently. But MPs are not happy that they are being forced to pay for and brand ODM merchandise to counter the sea of UDA's T-Shirts, caps and scarves.

They have also questioned the whereabouts of millions allegedly donated by President William Ruto to fund Chungwa party operations, shortly after UDA and ODM entered into a pre-election pact.

Homa Bay County Woman Rep Joyce Bensuda resuscitated the debate after she revealed that holding ODM rallies, especially in Luo Nyanza, had become expensive. In a video seen by The Standard, Bensuda is seen addressing a small group of people, further revealing how they, ODM leaders, have to pay people to fill their rallies.

Expressing concern that supporters might soon stop attending their rallies if not paid, she explained how she spent more than Sh150,000 on handouts alone during an ODM event in Ndiwa.

“Fifty people multiplied by Sh300 gets to how much? Who is good at math here? That is Sh150,000, together with the 56 buses that I ferried to Ndhiwa. Just calculate. I gave Sh300 each to the people in all the buses. That is before the cost of hiring buses and I haven't included T-shirts, umbrellas and the cheques I issued,” said Bensuda.

“You see, what I am saying is that I have improved because if I don't explain myself clearly to you, how will you convince those who are crying foul? Most of the people I invite to my functions have reduced to just four hundred. In a bus, some get Sh1,000 and others at least a merchandise and I tell my people to make it very clear to them before boarding that if anyone is uncomfortable working for 1k, they can leave the space for those who can to avoid 'mvutano',” she added.

Further stating, “Right now, I have an upcoming event in Homa Bay, and I already have 62 buses. My calculation of total costs comes to Sh1.24 million or Sh1.5 million thereabout. That is before fuel and empowerment because the event is themed Juakali and artisans empowerment.”

Her sentiments gave a contrasting reality to when the late Raila commandeered the ODM ship and crowds organically rallied behind him.

A Controller of Budget report also indicates that in the 2025/2026 FY, ODM Party received Sh200 million as part of a court award.

The Controller of Budget’s National Government Budget Implementation Review Report for the year ended June 2026 documents a Sh200 million request by the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties for the Orange Democratic Party.

CoB says the money was “to cater for a request by the ODM party in relation to a petition for an outstanding court award for the Political Parties Fund”. The National Treasury approved the request on September 25, 2025, while the Controller of Budget approved the withdrawal on January 10, 2026.

The allocation relates to a longstanding dispute over Political Parties Fund arrears. In a 2019 judgment, the Court of Appeal found that ODM was entitled to arrears under the Political Parties Act from the 2012-13 financial year. The case involved ODM against the National Treasury, the Treasury CS, the Registrar of Political Parties and the National Assembly.

Treasury records put the award at Sh4.136 billion, with Sh1.1 billion recorded as having been paid against it. The claim arose from ODM's contention that it had been denied funds due under the statutory Political Parties Fund. The court did not, however, enter judgment in ODM's favour for the precise Sh4.136 billion claimed. Instead, it held that the party was entitled to arrears due under the statutory funding formula, with the actual amount to be ascertained from government revenue figures.

It is these and other funds that critics have accused the ODM party of using to pay supporters to attend rallies.

One such critic is Democracy for Citizens Party Deputy Party Leader Cleophas Malala, who recently claimed that ODM has been splurging billions on campaigns, yet the party had already announced it would not be fielding a Presidential candidate.

“At the time of Raila’s death, ODM accounts had a total of Sh2.7 billion. But as of August, the accounts only had Sh78 million. It means that they have been ‘eating’ this money and that is why they elected to kick out Edwin Sifuna from the party. For 7 months, ODM has spent Sh2.6 billion, yet it has no Presidential candidate,” said Malala during a televised interview on Citizen TV.

He added, “According to the Auditor General’s report, ODM actually spent Sh688.7 million on campaigns in 2022. This means that in the last seven months, they have expended thrice the amount that Raila used in the previous elections. And if you are keen, you will notice that a majority of the party’s functions are held in Homa Bay, Kisumu, and Siaya counties.”

ODM Secretary General Catherine Omanyo, however, refuted the claims by Malala, emphasising that no funds had been misappropriated.

“There are no funds that have been misappropriated. The money is spent on events. You might find the party holding more than four events in a day...We are a vibrant party and we are doing activities as part of running the party,” she stated.

But the biggest existential threat to ODM is perhaps the tussle between the ODM Linda Ground faction and the Linda Mwananchi brigade. The pro-government faction led by party leader Oburu Odinga is pushing for a pre-election merger with UDA and a joint 2027 manifesto, while the Edwin Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction is opposed to an alignment with UDA, terming it a betrayal of the party’s identity.

Analysts now warn that the ODM party is undergoing a moment of truth and it remains to be seen whether it will survive as an institution or will further crumble given the exit of Raila Odinga- the glue that held it together.