Top operator? Uhuru Kenyatta's political moves questioned

Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s move to support opposition political camps separately, as opposed to identifying one candidate to back, has caused ripples and confusion, with analysts speculating on his motives and agenda.

While Uhuru has formally endorsed Fred Matiang’i, whom he appointed as his successor as the Jubilee Party leader, for the presidency, he has supported other factions within the Opposition, such as the Linda Mwananchi team led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, and the larger Opposition, where he serves as the Azimio Council chairperson.

Uhuru has held private meetings with Wiper Patriotic Front Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who has also formally announced his presidential bid, with a view to uniting the Opposition. Separately, he has referred to Matiang’i as “kifaru ya kazi”, a term often used when one wants to associate a person with a rhino because of its relentless determination, unmatched physical endurance and single-minded focus.

Within Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi, both the government side and some Opposition supporters have repeatedly claimed that Uhuru is the one bankrolling the group.

Last week, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka said the government had come up with the issue of Uhuru bankrolling them but did not talk about billions of shillings being used in empowerment forums.

“The government has come up with the issue of it is Uhuru who is funding you people with billions and everything, that is true, but the government doesn't talk about Ruto who is sponsoring all these empowerment funds, funds which are not budgeted for,” he said.

Additionally, both Linda Mwananchi and Azimio, whose chairmanship is held by Uhuru, are embroiled in a tug-of-war over the use of the name ‘Ukombozi’, with two teams declaring their interest in using it for a political party and a coalition political party.

Analysts say Uhuru’s moves have caused confusion in the Opposition, with Matiang’i’s political chemistry with Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, who recently acquired the Peoples Party of Kenya (PPK), adding more fog.

Matiang’i has since abandoned the Opposition’s meetings, with his last attendance being on September 9, while he has skipped about five meetings.

Matiang’i did not attend the Opposition’s big announcement on September 21, when Kalonzo announced that Azimio had rebranded to Ukombozi. This was despite a communication by Jubilee’s National Executive Council (NEC) earlier this year that Matiang’i would be representing Uhuru in the Opposition meetings.

He has, however, focused on coalition-building with Nyoro’s party, as the two have held joint rallies and private meetings about four times.

On September 12 and 18, the two met in Kangema and Kiharu, respectively. This week, Nyoro visited Matiang’i to discuss a joint rally that they will be holding today in Narok. They will be joined by Siaya Governor James Orengo, who has been a key player in the Linda Mwananchi team.

In Kiharu, Uhuru joined Matiang’i and Nyoro at a funeral ceremony, with the MP using the opportunity to brief the former President that he felt he was equal to the task of leading a political party. He said he had followed in Uhuru’s footsteps when he formed his party, the National Alliance (TNA), in 2013.

Despite Nyoro announcing that his party is a member of the Opposition, he has never attended a meeting organised by either the Linda Mwananchi team or the United Opposition.

While the group will be in Narok, the United Opposition faction led by Kalonzo will be in Busia, where they will attend a church service and later hold a ‘meet the people’ tour.

Yesterday, Nyoro defended his political alliance with Matiang’i, saying he was working ‘with the people who are ready and available’, even as he stressed that his party was still in the Opposition.

“There is nothing like coming together and forming a cabal; we are working with everyone ready and available for us, aspirants and officials of other political parties are welcome in our meetings and when they come, they are accorded a chance to popularise their political ambitions,” he said.

As the Matiang’i-Nyoro axis, where Uhuru is the overall leader, takes shape, the Kalonzo-Gachagua-Muturi group, where Uhuru is the chairperson of the Council, is still there, with Muturi announcing that if he were not the Opposition’s preferred presidential candidate, he would choose Kalonzo to be the flagbearer.

Analysts believe Uhuru’s moves will continue jolting the Opposition and risk creating narratives that he could be working with President William Ruto to split the Opposition to the advantage of his re-election bid.

According to Herman Manyora, a political analyst, Uhuru’s decision to support factions within the Opposition could lead to suspicions that he was in a secret pact with Ruto to confuse the Opposition so that all end up on the ballot, with Ruto emerging as the biggest beneficiary.

“While it could not be the case, those who want to accuse Uhuru of working with Ruto will use scenarios of him supporting a fragmented Opposition to hammer their point,” he said.

He, however, said it could be Uhuru’s strategy not to have a definitive Opposition presidential candidate due to ever-changing political dynamics, saying settling on one candidate could close doors for more leaders who have ambitions and want to associate with the Opposition.

“This time last year, Kalonzo was the single most preferred Presidential candidate for the Opposition, but Sifuna has since joined the camp and changed the political arithmetic; therefore you may not blame Uhuru for not settling on a candidate,” he added.

On his part, Safina Party leader Jimmy Wanjigi equated Uhuru’s actions in the Opposition to a self-preservation strategy where he would emerge as a winner if any of them wins and if Ruto is re-elected.

He claimed Uhuru’s move to introduce the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) and later support the late Raila Odinga’s presidential ambition after the BBI referendum failed showed that the former President was on such an adventure.

“This is the continuity of the BBI political project. He supported Raila's Presidential bid with the intent of making sure that, if Raila won, they changed the Constitution and introduced a Parliamentary system. Uhuru intended to come back to power through this system and complete his power succession plot. He has never dropped this political game plan. Today, he is supporting different factions of the Opposition with the primary goal of accomplishing his failing mission,’ Wanjigi claimed.

He added: “On the other hand, he and Ruto share a problem with the debt crisis they jointly engineered. Therefore, they work together to protect each other. Ruto and his troops have been pushing changes to the constitution to introduce a parliamentary system. This is a shared goal with Uhuru, which gives them complete power control away from the people. People will not have a say in electing their President.”

Gitile Naituli, a professor of management and leadership at Multimedia University of Kenya, separately supported Wanjigi’s views while cautioning the Opposition to be careful with the former President.

“Uhuru may not want a new slate of leaders to occupy the Presidency, as they may demand an audit of odious debts and this may work against him as he and Ruto are the ones who borrowed the huge debts that have burdened Kenyans. Even in 2022, despite him endorsing the late Raila, he never campaigned for him but only spoke to Mt Kenya region in vernacular media stations and at Sagana State Lodge.”

He added: “Uhuru ought to be uniting the Opposition and only endorse the candidate who has been agreed upon by all Principals, but him supporting different camps sends mixed signals on his commitment to a united Opposition.”

Muturi admits that speculation was rife in the Opposition and urged Kenyans to reject any leader who departs from the Opposition.

“People must work together to liberate this country from Ruto's bad governance schemes; people must be ready to subordinate their personal ambitions for a greater cause,” he said.