ODM's broad-based gamble under scrutiny a year after Raila's demise

When President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga signed a cooperation framework on March 7, 2025, they committed themselves to addressing the country’s economic, social and governance challenges.

This was soon after his party, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), "donated experts" to Ruto's Kenya Kwanza administration under a broad-based arrangement.

The experts include Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi (Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Hassan Joho (Mining) and Wyckliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives).

The move was later fiercely challenged by other party officials and members including Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna- then outfit's spokesperson and who would later lead a breakaway faction out of the party.

Analysts and critics opine Raila's death dealt democracy a big blow. It gave President Ruto a blank cheque to reverse what Raila had fought for for the many decades he influenced: Abductions never ended, the cost of living is unimaginable and getting worse, political party independence is a mirage, executive fiat over the legislature is an everyday occurrence.

Even the glue that stuck them together is now an amorphous document called the Nadco report that may not be implemented with leaders least interested in why the broad based government was formed and everyone angling for the next elections.

His party, ODM, is now a shell of what he left thanks to concerted efforts by the President to water down its influence thanks the split occassioned by the party leader's death. . One year after Raila's death, the party is confronted with the question of whether its leaders who joined government have used their influence to advance the late opposition chief’s reform agenda or gradually shifted their priorities towards political survival and succession calculations.

The four CSs, alongside senior party officials, among others, ODM leader Oburu Oginga, Governor Gladys Wanga and lawmaker Junet Mohamed, have defended the broad-based arrangement as an opportunity to influence government from within.

But their continued cooperation with Ruto, coupled with the emerging commitment to support his re-election, has intensified scrutiny over whether the partnership remains anchored in the agreement Raila signed with the President or has evolved into a political alliance with interests of its own.

For Prof Gitile Naituli, a leadership scholar, the arrangement represents a departure from ODM’s founding ideals.

Political analyst Daniel Juma, however, argues that the partnership has delivered some stability and development gains, insisting that the Constitution, rather than the political agreement, remains the ultimate measure of the government’s obligations.

The competing interpretations expose the central dilemma facing ODM: After Raila's death does has its participation in government given the party meaningful leverage over Ruto’s administration or weakened its capacity to hold the President accountable.

The stakes are particularly high because the broad-based arrangement was not initially presented as a conventional coalition for sharing political power that has now clouded the conversation between ODM and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party.

At the centre of the 10-point agenda were implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report and an end to abductions and extrajudicial killings.

Other issues included inclusivity in governance, protection of devolution, the national debt crisis, youth opportunities, integrity in leadership, public expenditure, corruption, peaceful assembly and constitutionalism.

The agreement followed a period of political tension and protests over allegations of continued disregard of the rule of law, police brutality and other forms of human rights violations, cost of living, and unemployment among others. 

These concerns triggered widespread youth-led protests which also coincided with the June 2024 Gen Z protest 1st anniversary.

Raila and Ruto presented their partnership as a framework for national unity and reforms, rather than an electoral coalition or power-sharing arrangement.

"The derogation of rights to peaceful assembly and protests remains one of the most shameful realities of the excesses of Kenya's law and order responses since independence," the document read in part.

But the political landscape changed significantly after Raila’s death, leaving the implementation of the agreement in the hands of leaders who must now balance its reform commitments against their own political interests and the demands of an approaching election.

According to Joe Nene, a political analyst and Homa Bay gubernatorial aspirant, if Raila was alive, he would have piled a lot of pressure to the Kenya Kwanza administration to a point that there would have had a fall out.

Nene said by now, Raila could be laying the groundwork to campaign for the presidency since Ruto could not have kept their MOU alive.

"The Broad Based arrangement was a marriage of convenience; it would be dead by now and Raila being the people's person, would have exited the arrangement since he could have stuck to their interests as opposed to Ruto's," he said

He added that the former ODM leader would have forced the government to deliver its pledges to Kenyans by publicly pointing out areas where there was laxity."

"Kenyans miss Raila since the country would be moving on well and working for the people due to his pressure,' he said.

According to Prof Naituli, the contradiction between ODM’s historical identity and the governing party’s political philosophy makes the arrangement difficult to defend.

“They joined the government to advance their personal agenda. It has nothing to do with the 10-point agenda,” he said.

Naituli argues that ODM was founded on protecting vulnerable citizens, while the administration it joined does not share that philosophy.

In his view, he believes the presence of ODM leaders in government has not necessarily translated into the implementation of the reforms Raila envisaged.

He draws a distinction between leaders he considers ideologically committed to ODM’s founding principles and those he believes have prioritised access to power.

“The ideological... because Raila’s spirit, if you want, of fighting for the weak, that is now with the Sifuna,” Naituli said, referring to Sifuna and the opposition-leaning faction associated with the Linda Mwananchi movement.

His lenses further raises a broader question about whether ODM’s participation in government has diluted the party’s identity and weakened its ability to challenge policies that conflict with its historical positions.

Naituli also questions the value of the 10-point agenda itself, arguing that most of its commitments are already provided for in the Constitution.

“What it should have asked was simply implementation of specific sections of the Constitution, which Ruto is not in the mood to implement,” he told The Standard.

His argument is that the MoU’s success should not be measured by the number of ODM leaders appointed to government, but by whether the administration has translated constitutional promises the party stood for into tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Kenyans.

Juma, who is also Africa's Global Peace Foundation representative, while agreeing with Naituli that implementation of the Constitution could honour the MoU, offers a contrasting interpretation.

He says the partnership has contributed to political stability, cautioning against dismissing the broad-based arrangement despite having not fully delivered every commitment.

He cited that the political relationship has opened up opportunities for development in areas that previously were 'marginalised." 

At the same time, he also points to what he describes as a reduction in abductions during the period under review, even as he acknowledges uncertainty surrounding incidents reported during political rallies.

This even as there are reemergence of reports of abductions in the recent past. The whereabouts of some of the victims are yet to be established.

“The broad-based arrangement has been able to bring some stability, of course, to the coalition, and they have tried, even though not perfectly, but they have tried,” Juma said.

His position is that cooperation with the government can offer a practical route to reform, particularly when political actors have limited leverage outside the Executive.

Juma also argues that the 10-point agenda should not be treated as a separate Constitution against which every government action is judged.

The obligations to protect civil liberties, respect the rule of law and provide social and economic rights, he observes, already exist in the supreme law.

For him, the question is whether the government is making progress in fulfilling those obligations, not whether every political aspiration in the MoU has been achieved.

“I always believe in changing things from within,” he said, arguing that Sifuna and other critics would have greater leverage if they remained inside ODM and challenged the government through the broad-based arrangement.

“When you are outside and trying to shout from outside to within, you cannot deliver much change,” he added.

Juma defended Raila lieutenants in government, arguing that cabinet positions and participation in government provide access to decision-making while admitting that they do not guarantee every reform will be implemented.

But that defence also raises an accountability question: if the partnership has given ODM influence, what measurable reforms can its leaders point to as evidence that they have used it effectively?

That question has become more pressing following the release of the implementation committee’s report in March 2026.

 The committee outlined progress in several areas but also identified outstanding legislative and policy measures requiring further action.

The official assessment, however, did not settle the political dispute over the agreement.

The Linda Mwananchi faction, led by Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, rejected the government’s assessment and gave its implementation efforts one mark out of 10, describing the report as misleading.

The competing assessments illustrate why the presence of ODM leaders in government, critics insist, cannot, by itself, be treated as proof of progress.

Equally, the existence of outstanding reforms does not automatically establish that the partnership has achieved nothing.

A rigorous assessment must examine the substance of the commitments: whether pending NADCO reforms have been enacted, whether the cost of living and youth unemployment have been addressed, whether public resources are being managed transparently, and whether the rights to peaceful assembly, free expression and constitutional protection are respected.

According to Sifuna, his former colleagues in the party joined the KK administration for self-enrichment, claiming that Raila himself had once reprimanded them for "speaking for the party and community."

The Equitable Party leader, during his latest interview with reporters, recalled a meeting in Karen following the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, where Raila met members of ODM’s Central Committee and the four Cabinet Secretaries from the party’s ranks.

In Sifuna's account, Raila told the CSs to concentrate on their government responsibilities rather than claim to speak for the party or their communities.

 He also claimed that Raila defended his right to scrutinise their performance in Parliament despite their shared party background.

“You are now CSs who are subject to interrogation. Know your stuff,” Sifuna recalled Raila telling them.

"You have no authority to speak on behalf of the party, you have a spokesperson, you are now a cabinet secretary, focus on your work, focus on helping the government deliver, whatever it is that you can do to help the country to grow."

He says he has been left wondering "how they have turned out, because these were comrades we used to sit in rooms like this and you would think that all of us believed in the same philosophy until money and power showed up."

Babu, meanwhile, described his former party colleagues who joined the government as those pursuing personal interests rather than advancing the values of the party.

"They are people whom Baba used to fight for them. They were being given direct tickets, they are told you are going to be the next MP, Governor, Senator, etcetera," he recently told The Standard in an exclusive interview.

And for the Nairobi governor hopeful, the direction of the 20 year0-old party post Raila was a question of political independence and loyalty to ordinary citizens.

"So they have found that Baba in Ruto, they are hiding behind Ruto because they are weak, they can't stand on their own. They know that supporting a government that is not working for the people is wrong, they know that supporting Ruto is wrong, but they are saying he's the new Baba because they are looking for their selfish interest."

“I wanted to be in opposition because I felt I should stick with wananchi, that’s where I should be providing checks and balances to the government of the day,” he said.

Ultimately, the fate of Raila’s 10-point agenda, analysts say, will depend on whether its commitments can survive the political calculations that have followed his death.

Raila’s signature gave the 10-point agenda political weight. His death has left its implementation dependent on the judgement and resolve of those who inherited the arrangement.

Their record, rather than their proximity to State House, will determine whether the agreement becomes a vehicle for reform or a political bargain whose promises remain unfinished.