Waiguru's DP bid exposes political dilemma facing outgoing governors

As the 2027 political electioneering draws near, second-term county chiefs appear to be in a race to plot their next move in what analysts describe as a "terrible balancing act." 

Some are seeking national office, others eyeing Parliament, while many risk political oblivion after relinquishing the power and influence of the governor’s office.

Among them is Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru who has thrown herself into the succession battle for the Deputy President’s position, laying bare the political dilemma facing second-term governors as they prepare to relinquish office in 2027.

Waiguru, who has declared her interest in deputising President William Ruto in his re-election bid, is among a growing number of outgoing county chiefs seeking to extend their political careers beyond the constitutional two-term limit.

Waiguru has defended her conviction, citing her experience while working with former government regimes, describing Ruto as the most dedicated president she has worked with during her time in government.

“I have had the privilege to work with Kibaki and Uhuru, and I have worked under Ruto. I have never seen a president more dedicated to working for his country than he is,” she said.Her declaration, however, has opened a window into the difficult balancing act facing governors who must now decide whether to pursue national executive positions, seek elective seats in Parliament or risk fading into political irrelevance.

Political analysts Javas Bigambo and leadership scholar Prof Gitile Naituli say the scramble reflects a struggle to preserve influence accumulated during their tenures, with some governors likely to survive the transition while others could disappear from the national political conversation.

Bigambo argues that the attraction of executive power, financial influence and political networks makes retirement an unattractive prospect for governors who have spent a decade at the helm of their counties.

“Second-term governors are in a catch-22 situation. They have finished the opportunity granted to them by the Constitution to serve in the executive for two terms and they cannot seek the renewal of their mandate as governors,” he says.

Having experienced the influence associated with the office, Bigambo says, many are unwilling to relinquish politics, particularly those who have not established independent careers outside public service.

“They want to retain their influence for the sake of preserving their own egos. Many of them are not old fellows, so they cannot imagine going into retirement from politics,” he says.

For Waiguru, the Deputy President’s position offers a route into the national executive without having to seek another elective county position. She has also declared ambitions to contest the presidency in 2032.

Her declaration places her in a potentially competitive field as Ruto considers the running mate question, with the Mount Kenya voting bloc expected to remain an important factor in the 2027 contest.

According to Bigambo, Mt Kenya is "quite consequential" for Ruto and that Waiguru "can easily play the gender card" to persuade the Head of State to select him as his deputy.

"For Waiguru to consider whether to present herself and be considered for deputy president or by way of such consideration then find herself ending up in the cabinet when  Ruto is re-elected."

But Naituli questions whether Waiguru can translate her ambitions into a viable political bargain, arguing that her political history and public perception could complicate her efforts to secure support in the region.

He also suggests that Ruto could be weighing other figures from the region rather than settling on Waiguru, although the President has not publicly announced his preferred running mate.

Naituli warns that some outgoing governors who align themselves with a politically vulnerable administration could lose their own standing in the process.

“The weak ones will probably go to Ruto and lose together with Ruto,” he opines, arguing that stronger political figures may instead pursue Senate seats or align themselves with the opposition.

Bigambo, however, says the choices are not limited to the presidency and Parliament. Some governors may seek cabinet appointments, while others are positioning themselves to become valuable political brokers capable of delivering votes to rival camps.

He cites Kajiado Governor Joseph Ole Lenku, whose political positioning and efforts to demonstrate influence over the Maasai community could make him attractive to either side of the political divide.

Ole Lenku has threatened to ditch the ODM party on which he rode to second term and announced plans to establish a political party associated with the Maa community.

According to Bigambo, such manoeuvres are part of a wider process of political bargaining in which outgoing governors seek to demonstrate their usefulness to presidential candidates and opposition leaders.

“They are in a state that we can call political bargaining to determine their next direction,” he observes.

The experience of governors who sought other elective positions in the 2022 General Election illustrates the risks.

Former Busia Governor Sospeter Ojaamong, who served two terms between 2013 and 2022, unsuccessfully sought the Teso South parliamentary seat after leaving office. He had previously served as an MP before becoming governor.

By contrast, former Uasin Gishu Governor Jackson Mandago successfully transitioned to the Senate in 2022, winning the seat after completing his two terms as governor.

Mandago was among only two outgoing governors who secured Senate seats in that election, alongside former Mandera Governor Ali Roba.

Other outgoing governors, including Kivutha Kibwana, Alex Tolgos and Samuel Ole Tunai, failed in their attempts to secure alternative elective positions.

The contrasting outcomes underline the uncertainty facing governors preparing to leave office, even when they retain regional networks and political resources.

Bigambo argues that former governors without national political significance risk being forgotten unless they secure another elective position or remain relevant through strategic alliances.

He cites Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka as an example of a politician who has repeatedly reinvented himself, moving from provincial administration to the Senate speakership and the governorship.

Lusaka’s political survival, Bigambo argues, demonstrates how outgoing governors can remain relevant by positioning themselves as influential figures in presidential campaigns and succession negotiations.

But Naituli says the constitutional framework itself may need to be reconsidered to address the immediate transition from county executive office to Parliament.

He argues that governors should not be allowed to move directly into the Senate, which is constitutionally mandated to oversee county governments, without a period outside elective politics.

The debate has recently gained momentum with a proposed constitutional amendment seeking to impose a five-year cooling-off period on serving and former governors before they can contest Senate or county assembly seats.

The Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2026, sponsored by Kirinyaga Senator James Murango, proposes changes to Articles 99 and 193 of the Constitution and corresponding provisions of the Elections Act.

It is intended to prevent governors from moving directly into institutions responsible for scrutinising county expenditure and administration.

The Senate committee responsible for justice and legal affairs has recommended passage of the Bill without amendments, leaving it awaiting further parliamentary consideration.

The proposal is not yet law and does not impose a blanket ban on former governors seeking every political office.

If enacted in its proposed form, it would complicate the plans of outgoing governors eyeing the Senate or county assemblies immediately after leaving office, while leaving other routes into national politics open.

For Waiguru and her colleagues, the analysts avers, the end of a second term is not necessarily the end of a political career.

"They are in a terrible balancing act because either they go into political oblivion by way of miscalculation or two they get aligned with whichever faction whether it's on the opposition side or government side with a view of sustaining their political relevance," he said.