Wetang'ula's 2032 ambition and the battle for Western Kenya

National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula is banking on his support for President William Ruto’s re-election in 2027 to strengthen his claim to succeed him five years later, as he seeks to turn decades of political experience and regional influence into a national presidential bid.

Leaders from Western Kenya and the Rift Valley have begun openly backing his ambitions, arguing that his loyalty to Ruto  deserves political recognition when the President’s tenure ends.

But the Speaker’s path to State House will depend on whether these endorsements can translate into a durable coalition beyond the next election.

The latest declaration came during a rally in Bungoma County, where Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot led lawmakers in pledging support for Wetang’ula’s 2032 ambitions.

“Wetang’ula commands immense respect among the Kalenjin community for his role in ensuring that President Ruto won the last elections and his tireless campaigns for his second-term bid,” Cheruiyot said.

The Kericho Senator promised that his community would reciprocate the Speaker’s support when Ruto leaves office.

“At the end of President Ruto’s tenure in office, we will ensure that our community rallies behind him as a payback for his unrelenting support to the President,” he said.

Butere MP Tindi Mwale said Western Kenya leaders had agreed to prioritise Ruto’s re-election before turning their attention to Wetang’ula’s ambitions.

“As leaders from Western, we have decided to rally our arsenal towards President Ruto’s bid for a second term. We will do the same for Wetang’ula to take over from him upon his retirement,” Mwale said.

President Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet reinforced the message, assuring the Luhya community that the Speaker would not be abandoned when the succession contest arrives.

“Wetang’ula has stood with President Ruto during the last general elections and while in office. I want to assure the Luhya community that we will not abandon him when the right time comes,” Kibet said.

Yet political promises made ahead of an election do not automatically translate into succession agreements. Wetang’ula will need to sustain relationships across regional blocs while navigating competing ambitions within the broad-based government.

His political journey offers both experience and a record of shifting alliances.

He was a key figure in opposition formations including the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and the National Super Alliance (NASA), before assuming his current position within the government-aligned political establishment.

He has also served as Foreign Affairs Minister under former President Mwai Kibaki and now presides over the National Assembly, giving him experience in executive and legislative leadership.

Navakholo MP Emmanuel Wangwe cited his diplomatic experience as an advantage.

“I urge our people to back Wetang’ula because he is  a polished politician capable of running the country after President Ruto’s retirement,” Wangwe said.

Likuyani MP Innocent Mugabe also backed his candidacy.

“The experience that Wetang’ula has gained, no other politician from the community can match. He is our choice for the presidency in 2032,” Mugabe said.

However, Wetang’ula’s ambitions are unfolding amid changing political dynamics in Western Kenya.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, through the Linda Mwananchi movement, has emerged as an influential voice mobilising support for an alternative political direction and positioning himself as the movement’s presidential candidate for 2027.

Sifuna’s growing profile introduces another dimension to the region’s political calculations, challenging established leaders to demonstrate that their influence extends beyond traditional political networks.

For Wetang’ula, the question is whether support secured through government alliances can compete with alternative grassroots mobilisation.

Bungoma’s electoral significance will also matter.

Some analysts have argued that the county played a decisive role in the 2022 presidential contest, highlighting Western Kenya’s importance in national electoral arithmetic.

However, a presidential victory depends on votes secured across all 47 counties.

Wetang’ula has linked his ambitions to the Luhya community’s long-standing desire to produce a president.

“I am determined to ensure the Luhya community realises the dream of the late former Vice-President Michael Wamalwa Kijana of delivering the presidency. The support by the leaders today is well received, and I will not let them down,” he said.

For now, the immediate priority is Ruto’s re-election. Wetang’ula cited planned infrastructure investments, including the expansion of the Malaba-Eldoret Highway and electricity connectivity projects in Bungoma, as part of the government’s development agenda.

His challenge is to turn his role in Ruto’s coalition into a national political platform of his own.

Whether the endorsements made today endure until 2032 will depend on the alliances, negotiations and electoral calculations that emerge after 2027.