Kalonzo under pressure as Ruto courts Ukambani voters

The 2027 General Election marks a defining, do-or-die moment for Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

Facing mounting pressure from both his Ukambani backyard and the broader opposition, Kalonzo is under increasing pressure to confront President William Ruto directly at the ballot.

At 72, the former Vice-President faces a twofold challenge: securing the opposition coalition’s presidential ticket and mobilising the financial resources and popular support required to unseat the 59-year-old incumbent.

With the August 2027 election approaching, Kalonzo is racing against time to consolidate his Lower Eastern stronghold, which Ruto has been aggressively targeting. At the same time, he must navigate delicate negotiations with his opposition co-principals to secure support for his presidential bid.

In his Ukambani stronghold, supporters insist that Kalonzo accept nothing less than the presidential nomination. His allies warn that settling for a secondary role risks eroding his political stature and leadership in South Eastern Kenya.

Kalonzo’s key loyalists, including elected and nominated MPs, MCAs, governors, senators, business leaders and professionals, are mounting an assertive campaign for his candidacy. They point to his governance experience, diplomatic background and coalition-building skills as key strengths.

At the same time, claims of covert communications between Kalonzo and Ruto’s allies have raised questions about his standing within the united opposition. Kalonzo’s inner circle has firmly dismissed suggestions of any talks to work with the Head of State, blaming what it describes as State-backed propaganda intended to sow division within opposition ranks.

Adding another dimension to the political intrigue, former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama, now a member of the Parliamentary Service Commission within Kenya Kwanza’s “broad-based” alignment, recently broke a prolonged political silence  with mixed signals about Kalonzo. He described the Wiper leader as a formidable political figure who could not easily be sidelined.

Muthama’s fallout with Kalonzo reached a turning point in 2021 when Wiper fielded Muthama’s ex-wife, Agnes Kavindu, in the Machakos senatorial by-election, which she won. Following the split, Muthama withdrew his support for Kalonzo and ultimately backed then-Deputy President Ruto in 2022.

However, a recent closed-door meeting between Muthama and Kalonzo in Nairobi sparked widespread speculation across the political landscape. Muthama subsequently sought to downplay the meeting on social media, describing it as a routine discussion between “brothers” on community and national affairs.

“Where we were seated it was only Kalonzo and I. Others were keeping vigil outside to keep intruders at bay. What we discussed was between Kalonzo and myself and those mouthing about our meeting should know what they are scared of is on the way coming,” said Muthama.

While Muthama later held publicised meetings with other prominent Ukambani figures, including Labour Cabinet Secretary Alfred Mutua, former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko and KAIST Chairman Prof. Emmanuel Mutisya, it was his closed-door meeting with Kalonzo that generated the most persistent intrigue.

Some analysts suggest Muthama was sent by Ruto to persuade Kalonzo to join forces with the President ahead of the 2027 elections. Others speculate that Muthama reached out independently because of discontent within Kenya Kwanza.

Former Kangundo West MCA Titus Ikusya offered a firm interpretation to The Sunday Standard:

“When you see him with Muthama, it is obvious he is heading that direction. That is how he started behaving when he left ODM,” Ikusya said

Conversely, a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) insider disputed the suggestion that Muthama was acting as an envoy for the President, claiming that political power brokers had sidelined him.

“Muthama is no longer considered a valuable political asset by Ruto. That is why his political duties were transferred to Mwala MP Vincent Kawaya. That is why we do not see much of Muthama in Ruto’s activities in the lower Eastern region,” the source told The Sunday Standard.

Vyulya/Masii aspiring MCA Pascal Ndei also rejected claims that Kalonzo was shifting allegiance.

“The chances of Kalonzo joining Ruto are zero as we speak. He is firmly in the united opposition and most likely presidential flag-bearer,” said Ndei, a diehard supporter of Kalonzo.

Makueni Senator Daniel Maanzo similarly dismissed any possibility of Kalonzo compromising with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“Hakuna kitu kama hio (there is nothing like that). Kalonzo will be on the presidential ballot. If Kalonzo will not be the only candidate fronted by the opposition, Ruto could bounce back but the opposition is well aware of that fact.”

On Ruto’s regional tours, Maanzo described the President’s visits as misleading, arguing that his roadside project commitments totalled Ksh4 trillion, an amount he claimed exceeded the country’s entire annual budget.

Former Machakos Town MP Dr Victor Munyaka argued that Ruto’s development pledges would not necessarily translate into electoral gains.

“Ukambani voters are keen with the 2027 election and they will pull an Ol Kalou on Ruto. No matter the cash hand-outs and dummy development projects, their loyalty is in Kalonzo,” Dr Munyaka said.

However, former State House Chief of Staff Nzioka Waita, who is campaigning for the Machakos gubernatorial seat, defended Ruto’s development agenda. He argued that persistent opposition politics had cost the region economic progress.

“For 15 years, political miscalculations and the suffocating single-party dynamics of Wiper have kept Ukambani isolated from national resources, hindering our development and diminishing our voice at the national level.”

“The failure to grasp that opposition for opposition’s sake is not a strategy has further compounded our plight. Ironically, regions with far deeper opposition roots, such as Nyanza, have since found a working formula that secures them a meaningful share of the national cake.”

Waita argued that the current administration was redressing the regional development imbalance by directing funding to Ukambani. He added that pro-government leaders in the region were acting out of economic necessity rather than hostility towards Kalonzo.

“Our singular focus is securing an equitable share of national development for Machakos, Kitui, and Makueni. National politics and individual presidential ambitions must not come at the expense of local service delivery and economic progress. Voters are weighing the high cost of continued political isolation against a fast-approaching 2027 general election.”

Waita added that the region was moving beyond traditional personality-driven politics.

“History will judge us as the champions who broke with old, regressive trends, integrated closer with the national government, and restored our community to the center stage of national power-sharing.”