Gideon Moi's political future in focus after collapsed Ruto deal

The highly publicised political truce between President William Ruto and KANU chairman Gideon Moi has collapsed, setting the stage for a battle over the vote-rich Rift Valley region ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The deal, which saw Gideon withdraw from the Baringo senatorial by-election to clear the way for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), was reportedly  linked to promises of regional development projects. Gideon now says the President failed to honour the commitments, exposing what he describes as betrayal.

The former senator says he later discovered that Ruto had not acted in good faith. He is now preparing to chart a new political path, with the blessing of elders from the Rift Valley.

Political analysts argue that Gideon’s next move could fracture a region long regarded as Ruto’s political stronghold and reshape the presidential contest in 2027.

Observers say Gideon has three main options: renew his pact with Ruto, declare a presidential bid or throw his weight behind the opposition, where he could emerge as a kingmaker. A renewed alliance with the President appears less likely amid the fallout over the alleged broken promises.

Speaking at his Kabarak residence on Friday, Gideon broke his year-long political silence,  accusing the President of betraying their political agreement. He was addressing representatives of Kalenjin sub-tribes and opinion leaders from Narok, Bomet, Kericho, Nakuru, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Trans Nzoia and Baringo counties.

He recounted how Ruto had allegedly reneged on the 2025 political pact and explained what had prompted him to enter the agreement.

“I was told to wait, I waited, and I am still waiting to date. A promise remained a promise until I told myself that a time would come when I would have to make a decision,” Gideon said.

Gideon said he had initially stepped away from active politics after the 2022 General Election before being approached for discussions on unity within the Kalenjin community. He returned to the political scene during the by-elections following the death of William Cheptumo.

He said he was initially reluctant to enter political negotiations because he did not want to be seen as an obstacle to unity. However, after consultations, he agreed to engage, insisting that his participation was driven by the interests of the community rather than personal gain.

The KANU leader said one of the key issues he raised during the negotiations was the employment of professionals from Baringo, arguing that the community had expectations that needed to be addressed.

“I did everything they wanted me to do for two reasons. One, I accepted President Ruto as a leader and believed in the promises he made to the people. That was the primary reason. The second was to give him respect,” he said.

He rejected claims that his position was motivated by business interests, insisting that he had not sought personal favours.

“The intentions were not personal. I did not ask for anything for myself, not even business. I did it without reservations in spite of reservations from my own people,” he said.

Gideon also complained about attacks directed at him, saying the criticism had diverted public attention from what he considered the central issue: the need to honour commitments made during the political negotiations.

“People started attacking me, saying I am Standard media. I am not a journalist. Standard is like any other business and has many shareholders,” he said.

He said he harboured no ill will towards Ruto and wished him well, even as he called for the outstanding commitments to be addressed.

“I do not have anything evil against President William Ruto. May God protect him in his undertaking,” he said.

Gideon asked his supporters to give him room to make decisions, saying he wanted to focus on his community, family and political responsibilities without being constrained by expectations surrounding the negotiations.

“I called you today because I need three things. One is prayer, second, give me room to make decisions. Let me take care of my people, the community and the family name,” he said.

The gathering also heard calls for Gideon to take his message beyond Kabarak and engage directly with communities in other parts of the region.

KANU spokesman Tony Gachoka said the fallout could open the door for Gideon to pursue new alliances, rally support for the independence party across the Rift Valley and expand its political reach ahead of the next election.

“William Ruto has met his match in new alliances. Gideon Moi is going to spread his wings in the vast Rift Valley and in the Baringo Gubernatorial Race, while KANU also targets the influential Nairobi Gubernatorial Seat by leveraging and teaming up with Edwin Sifuna and Rigathi Gachagua for the National Vote..,” Gachoka stated yesterday.

Political science professor Macharia Munene said Gideon had three options, with joining the opposition offering the strongest opportunity to become a kingmaker if it unseats Ruto in the 2027 election.

“Gideon has the option of joining Ruto and supporting the President’s bid for a second term but that would be a terrible mistake as he would lose, himself. But he also has the opportunity to declare himself a Presidential candidate and offer himself as an alternative option for the population in the region that is tired of the Ruto regime. He would be guaranteed votes from the region,’ says Munene.

“By choosing to be a presidential candidate, he must first prove that he is a serious party leader. This way, he is going to revive KANU by being on the ballot. He can then get on the negotiating table with the likes of Sifuna, Gachagua and Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka...”

Munene said Gideon’s public criticism of Ruto  was also laying the groundwork for a political comeback, arguing that his remarks had strengthened his political standing and given him an opportunity to capitalise on the fallout.

“Gideon’s best option would be to join what is perceived to be the winning side. He should weigh his options and join the opposition as a Kingmaker because if he does not act, KANU will be forgotten,” added Munene.

Professor Herman Manyora said it would be premature to write off Gideon, arguing that he was likely to retain a significant place in Kenyan politics.

Manyora cited the disappointment among Baringo residents following Gideon’s withdrawal from the senatorial by-election as evidence that he still commanded political support.

“This shows you that his political comeback is not a distant thing but a very clear possibility.
And as Ruto becomes more under siege with the possibility of losing the election, then the Kalenjin and other communities in the region will see Gideon as the best alternative. Gideon makes it easier himself because of the way he conducts himself with restraint and plays the long game,” states Manyora.

“I however don’t expect Gideon to quickly jump into opposition politics and endorse any candidate. During the 2022 elections, he joined the Azimio brigade because there was a Presidential arrangement and former President Uhuru Kenyatta was at his level ...it would be very difficult for Gideon to jump into the opposition unless he is provoked, or unless after very careful consideration he realizes and confirms that Sifuna, for example will be the opposition’s flagbearer,” he adds.