Jitters as Opposition struggles to agree on coalition to unseat Ruto in 2027

The search for a single presidential candidate by the opposition continues to be complex as more formations emerge in their ranks.

There are now several fronts all pushing for a single presidential candidate, even as squabbling between the formations remains minimal and isolated.

With such a diverse cast but a united message of a need for a single presidential candidate, Jubilee Deputy Chairman Jeremiah Kioni said the only disappointment was that none of the likely candidates had mounted what could be termed as a serious presidential campaign secretariat.

"I think they have all read the public mood, which is for change, and they have opted for the easy way out, which is to ride the wave to victory," Kioni said.

He is among the few leaders in the opposition ranks who support the naming of a joint presidential candidate as early as possible.

"There are many reasons and excuses for a delayed announcement. But it also does have its risks, including lack of time to deal with the disappointment of the announcement and resultant defections,"  said Kioni.

Kioni also spoke of the major risk of a joint coalition candidate, saying there was a likelihood they would not be fully in charge of the government, with the consequent effect of ability to deliver.

"Coalition agreements definitely rob a president of a strong command of his government unless he had the invincible character of Mwai Kibaki," Kioni added.

The third president was described as a tough negotiator who never gave ground to his coalition partner Raila Odinga during the Grand Coalition government.

The description was by Raila's then Adviser on Coalition Affairs, Miguna Miguna in his book Peeling Back the Mask.

But there is a strong agreement that pre-coalition agreements, even when signed and deposited at the Registrar of Political Parties largely remain gentlemen agreements.

"We should always bear in mind that once a president is in office,  nothing compels you to obey such agreements. The president can decide to do away with the pacts since they cannot be supreme to the Constitution," said Kioni.

Political scientist and former University of Nairobi's council chairman Prof Amukowa Anangwe said it was the nature of Kenya coalition-making that personal, ethnic and regional interests are given assurances that they won't be left out but that going into government, everyone eventually fell into place.

"The big risk of horse trading is that boardrooms sometimes forget about the real needs of the people," he observed.

But like Kioni, he warned that a president elected via a coalition route need not follow the script in the signed memorandums.

"He can decide to ride roughshod because political pledges are simply like roses which can wither," said Prof Anangwe. "Cultivating a squabble-free government will largely depend on the political acumen of the person elected."

Prof Anangwe warns that Kenya had no history of obeying pre-election pacts, citing the Narc experience under Kibaki in 2002, the Grand Coalition government under Kibaki and Raila Odinga in 2008, the Uhuruto second term or even the current Kenya Kwanza experience under Ruto.

He noted that while Ruto went ahead to deliver political positions to his coalition partners like Musalia Mudavadi (Prime Cabinet Secretary), Moses Wetangula (Speaker of National Assembly), Amason Kingi (Senate Speaker), a look at the fine print in their signed agreements shows they hardly got their promised share of appointments across government and development projects for their regions.

"While negotiating for a stake in a future government, the participants must appreciate that things never remain the same and that they will have to live with their choice," said Prof Anangwe.

But he is against early naming of a joint presidential candidate pointing out that once named, the competitors can demolish and sabotage the ticket beyond repair.

"My advice is that the opposition continue jostling to the end since you can't organize against a disorganized people," said Prof Anangwe.

Another political strategist and coalition formation player since the Narc days, Prof Peter Kagwanja, said squabbling in coalition governments is a normal occurrence.

In any case, argued Prof Kagwanja, Kenya would reap in two fronts - a popular candidate gets elected and the strongest cabinet since Narc in 2002 gets into office.

"Coalition squabbles are normal because this is not a love affair or happy marriage. This is how the business of politics is transacted," said Kagwanja.

Prof Kagwanja, who is currently the deputy party leader of Martha Karua's PLP was the opposite number to Miguna Miguna in the Grand Coalition government as Coalition Affairs Advisor to President Kibaki.

This is the same argument advanced by Dr James Mithika, who is the Meru branch chairman of the Democratic Congress Party (DCP).

Dr Mithika argued that there is no point in having a strong president as William Ruto with zero achievement.

"Narc under Kibaki and the subsequent Grand Coalition were volcanic governments by all descriptions but they did well in delivering to the people. I think we are heading to another 2002 moment but with great lessons learnt," he added.

Prof Kagwanja added that Kenya was now in the league where no single party will be able to clinch power alone.

"Even the mighty Raila never went into an election on the ticket of his Orange Democratic Movement," he observed.

Prof Anangwe pointed out that the current opposition lacked a linchpin like Raila and that is part of the challenge of current efforts at coalition building.

"For now, opposition leadership is a congery of inchoate elements without a person with gravitas, grit and political acumen to lead the coalition building process," said Prof Anangwe.

Jeremiah Kioni reckoned that the process that will finally pick the single candidate will take long to conclude because of a variety of reasons, chief among them being that all likely candidates are counting on getting the chance.

"They have all read the national mood, which is for change. Two, they all, by public commitment, removed the picking from a popular to a boardroom decision," said Kioni.

The former Ndaragwa MP, who was Musalia Mudavadi's running mate in 2013, said in his own calculations none of the candidates has the resources to mount a serious presidential race.

"For now I would say the most urgent thing is to guard against the opposition lead slipping away as a result of careless pronouncements," said Kioni.