Oburu's authority tested as ODM pushes for bigger slice of Ruto deal

ODM leader Oburu Oginga has defended the party's decision to work with President William Ruto, insisting that its participation in the broad-based government is deliberate even as competing demands within the party threaten to complicate negotiations for a formal coalition ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Oburu has maintained that ODM was not supporting the President blindly, saying the decision to cooperate with his administration was informed by political considerations and a structured engagement that would eventually determine the terms of an electoral partnership.

In his first public address since leaving hospital, Oburu sought to reassure party members that the relationship with Ruto was not an abandonment of ODM's political identity or independence.

Speaking through a recorded address during the conclusion of the Raila Odinga Month celebrations at Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi on Saturday, he said the party had established mechanisms to guide its engagement with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

"We are in this broad-based government and we are not there blindly. Raila did not go there blindly and we are not ourselves there in this broad-based government blindly. We are there consciously and we are there knowing what we are doing," he said.

But even as Oburu defended the partnership, the rally exposed the difficult balancing act facing the party as it seeks to translate its participation in government into a formal political agreement without alienating members who want clear guarantees before committing to Ruto's re-election.

One of the most contentious demands emerging from the party is the Deputy President's position in a possible second Ruto administration.

Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir openly declared that the position should go to ODM, signalling the party's intention to negotiate for a substantial stake in the next government.

The demand puts Ruto in a delicate position, given that Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is already his running mate and has the backing of sections of UDA for another term.

Accommodating ODM would require Ruto to consider dropping Kindiki from the ticket, potentially unsettling his political arrangements with the Mt Kenya region, which has a significant stake in the current administration.

It could also generate discontent within UDA, where leaders who have rallied behind Kindiki may view the decision as a reversal of an existing political commitment.

For Ruto, therefore, the question is whether the political benefits of securing ODM's support would outweigh the risks of upsetting an established alliance and opening fresh succession battles within his own camp.

Kisii Governor Simba Arati, another ODM deputy party leader, also called for a negotiated arrangement, insisting that the party must secure favourable terms rather than offer unconditional support to the President.

The positions expose the difficult task facing Oburu: maintaining a working relationship with Ruto while convincing ODM members that the party will not enter an electoral arrangement from a position of weakness.

Oburu sought to address the concerns by revealing that ODM had appointed five representatives to work on its constitutional and policy framework. A separate coalition negotiating team, he said, would be established before February next year.

The team would be jointly appointed by his leadership and that of Ruto, with the responsibility of negotiating the terms of their political cooperation.

"A broad-based government is completely different from a coalition government and it cannot function the same. If you think it can function the same, that you just go in there without any talks, that you go there without any negotiations, we tell you that as a party, we are negotiating," he said.

The distinction is important because participation in the broad-based government has not automatically settled the terms of a formal electoral alliance, leaving questions of power-sharing, political zoning and the distribution of positions open to negotiation.

The divisions are also playing out against the backdrop of ODM's leadership transition following Raila's death.

For years, Raila's influence helped accommodate competing interests within the party, while his political stature provided a unifying reference point for supporters. His absence has left Oburu with the responsibility of preserving that political coalition while establishing his own authority.

The absence of East African Legislative Assembly MP Winnie Odinga and Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga from the Jacaranda gathering further drew attention to tensions surrounding the party's direction.

Both have previously raised concerns about ODM's relationship with the government and the need to protect Raila's political legacy.

Oburu appeared determined to contain the disagreements, warning members against making public statements that contradict official party positions.

"If you want to express your own view, don't express it against the policy of the party. If you are a member of the party, please be disciplined and follow the policies of your party," he said.

He also cautioned leaders against allowing the 2032 succession debate to overshadow preparations for the 2027 elections, arguing that the two political contests should remain separate.

The ODM party leader used the occasion to defend Raila's political legacy, describing his emergence as a national leader as a product of personal conviction and a sustained struggle against oppression rather than family inheritance.

As ODM prepares to establish its coalition negotiating team, the central challenge will be reconciling its demand for a meaningful share of power with the need to preserve unity within its ranks.

For President Ruto, the negotiations will test whether he can accommodate ODM's ambitions without destabilising his existing political alliances, while for Oburu, they will determine whether he can hold together a party whose members increasingly have different expectations of what cooperation with the President should deliver.