Political defections expose UDA's soft underbelly

A wave of defections and realignments within the political landscape has exposed the soft underbelly of the ruling United Democracy Alliance, with pundits now arguing that it risks being relegated to a shell of its former self.

 Ahead of the high-stakes 2027 elections, leaders elected under the UDA banner have in the recent past ditched their traditional home and sought political refuge elsewhere, even as political observers question President William Ruto’s silence on the developments.

A peel back of recent happenings reveals that the UDA party has largely been dealt a political blow in Nairobi, Mt Kenya and Western regions where sitting MPs and high-ranking officials within the Kenya Kwanza administration have ditched the ruling party and joined other parties such as the newly launched Linda Mwananchi party led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy For Citizens Party (DCP), the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party and Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper party.

The latest to defect is incumbent Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, who switched camps from UDA to ODM in a bid to defend and clinch his second term in office. While he has denied reports of being assured of clinching the party’s ticket for the gubernatorial seat, his dalliance with ODM’s top brass has signalled that he is the clear favourite to bear Chungwa party’s flag in the city governor contest.

In the Western Region, firebrand Senator Boni Khalwale has been vocal about his departure from UDA and the same was confirmed after he was named the Linda Mwananchi Movement’s Secretary for Political Affairs and Campaigns, placing him in charge of a key area of the organisation’s political mobilisation.

Isaac Omery resigned as the UDA Nambale Constituency chairman and left the party to join the Linda Mwananchi brigade.  

In the coastal region, Nyali MP Mohammed Ali cut ties with UDA and joined the Wiper party, where he is now serving as the Deputy party leader. He is seeking to contest the Mombasa Governor seat and will go against ODM’s Abdulswamad Nassir for the county’s top seat.  

Similarly, former Gender Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa in August announced her exit from UDA and her joining of the Wiper party. There, she is banking on getting the party’s ticket to vie for the Kilifi gubernatorial seat and will face off with Governor Gideon Mung’aro, who is seeking his reelection an ODM ticket.

“We are the ones who registered UDA members in Kilifi, and we are embarking on a grassroots campaign to deregister them from UDA and join Wiper...If they (UDA) are depending on the Coast votes, I want to tell them that they will fail terribly," Jumwa said in August shortly after joining Wiper.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP party, however, seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the defections with the developments strengthening the party’s influence, especially in the Mt Kenya region. 

The latest departures from UDA in the Mt Kenya region are by Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba and Nakuru Senator Tabitha Karanja. Their exit from the party not only pointed to the ruling party’s waning appeal to the electorate but also to a widening disconnect with a region that was instrumental in securing Ruto’s presidency.

“After soul-searching and serious consultation with my voters and community leaders and the church, I feel like my conscience does not allow me to dine, associate and cluster with people who have no regard for others and therefore I am not going to defend or campaign or seek any political seat through my party UDA,” said Wamucomba in October.

While she is yet to announce her next political move, Senator Karanja -who  has since been dewhipped as the Senate Deputy Majority Leader – has joined DCP and will face off incumbent Nakuru Governor Susan Kihika for the seat.

Nyandarua Governor Kiarie Badilisha’s move to DCP has also strengthened Gachagua’s efforts to establish the party as a credible alternative to the ruling coalition. Murang’a Governor Irungu Kang’ata has also announced his exit from UDA and joined the Linda Mwananchi party, with which he will be seeking a second term in office.

UDA has suffered notable losses, with several sitting MPs shifting allegiance to DCP, including Gabriel Kagombe of Gatundu South, Benjamin Gathiru of Embakasi Central, James Gakuya of Embakasi North and Edward Muriu of Gatanga.

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro has also ditched the ruling UDA party and joined the People’s Party of Kenya, with which he hopes to realise his Presidential ambitions. Other politicians who have dissociated themselves from President Ruto’s party include former Kirinyaga Woman Representative Purity Ngirici.

Pundits now aver that the mass defections from UDA are slowly reducing the outfit to a Rift Valley party and that, if it survives the pre-election season, will have to forge alliances with other parties come 2027.

And although defections do not automatically translate into a corresponding shift in voter support, observers argue that the mass exits from UDA threaten its grassroots network and ability to mobilise ahead of the general polls.

They also interprete that President Ruto’s continued silence over the realignments as him being on board with the developments albeit as part of a larger political play. The Head of State’s use of the newly coined ‘Usawa ni Sawa’ slogan has also ushered in speculation that either UDA will be rebranding or he intends to establish the Usawa ni Sawa coalition to accommodate the ODM party that joined the broad-based government arrangement.

Professor of History and Politics Macharia Munene argues that the political defections are about survival and are informed by the realisation that ‘Ruto’s goose is cooked’.

“Ruto’s political support is shaky much like American President Donald Trump’s and the signs are clear for everyone to see. Those jumping ship from UDA know this and understand that they should not be seen with Ruto. They know that they will survive better elsewhere,” says Munene. 

“There are over a hundred political parties in Kenya and those who are defecting know that if they themselves are popular then they don’t need a major political party to win the forthcoming election, they just need a political vehicle to get them through,” he adds.

The professor also holds that the President will remain politically isolated ahead of the 2027 election regardless of whatever slogan, party or coalition he comes up with.

 “For the four years he has been in office, the Mt Kenya region has been victimised. The Usawa ni Sawa is a code to other communities to gang up against the populous voters from Mt Kenya  region. However, this is not new, we have seen it before with former opposition leader Raila Odinga under the ’40 vs 1’.  The President should however not think that Kenyans can’t read through the lines or that they will forget his misdeeds over the last four years,” Munene observes.

Safina Party Secretary Joakim Simiyu, while agreeing that the realignments were to ensure leaders’ self-preservation, emphasises the need to vet the principles and motives of those crossing over to the opposition.

“I have looked at people defecting from William Ruto, and I wonder, why now if it is not about their own survival and nothing about how the country is being led?” posed Simiyu.

“I can see that there are people who celebrate when leaders leave from President Ruto’s side and add to those of us who want to change government. But again, with what motive? You can’t be the person who has been pushing all the punitive ways of leadership then one year to an election, you suddenly realise it’s not working...” he added.