Tenant tolerance: Why Pipeline Estate keeps attracting more residents

For an outsider, Pipeline Estate in Nairobi's Eastlands is more than just a labyrinth of buildings fighting for space that is always shrinking, yet somehow keeps creating more room.

Its corridors are always full - no matter the time of day -portraying the maze that it is. For a moment, you would believe these are people who seem unable to find their way out of the congested estate, and so they go round and round in circles.

It is the kind of chaos that has created its own rhythm, one that is being played on a loop. And true to this rhythm on loop, as a new survey shows, some people truly cannot find their way out of this estate.

The survey published by the Centre for Affordable Housing Finance (CAHF) calls it tenant tolerance. It notes that despite the challenges that testify to the dilapidated living conditions of Pipeline Estate, not many tenants are willing to have them fixed or move out.

These findings explain why this estate is always full, as tenants have found comfort - or survival tactics - in those difficult living conditions, and landlords are unwilling to raise rents, even when justified, just to improve the status of the buildings.

The Pipeline Social Survey polled 122 households who reported at least one problem. It adds that 37 (30 per cent) said they would pay more rent if problems were fixed and maintained.

“The 70 per cent who said no — despite actively reporting problems — is a precise measure of tenant tolerance. They know their alternative is either nowhere or somewhere worse. The 30 per cent who said yes represent a genuine opening, but it needs unpacking,” the survey says.

For those willing to pay more, the median amount they would part with is Sh400 per month - with the range being between Sh100 and Sh2,000. The survey puts this at a seven per cent increase in rent at a median rent of Sh6,000.

For old-building households paying Sh5,000, the Sh400 represents eight per cent, which the survey says is financially achievable for landlords as a partial cost recovery mechanism if improvements are made.

Infestation of pests, 47 per cent, represents the willingness to pay more, followed by sanitation (42 per cent). Both of these problems, the survey says, are directly caused by shared toilet arrangements. Water challenges, at 23 per cent, are the least common reason a tenant would pay more to be fixed.

“This is a meaningful signal: tenants know that a private or better-maintained toilet is a qualitative upgrade worth paying for. Water supply is seen as an infrastructure problem beyond any individual's control, so paying more for it feels pointless,” the survey says.

It adds that willingness to pay more is also concentrated in old buildings (35 per cent vs five per cent in new buildings) — logically, since newbuilding residents have fewer problems and less incentive.

“The rent headroom is precisely where the quality deficit is worst,” the survey says. “ This is the key fact for any argument that improvements can be partially financed by modest rent increases: the money and the problems are in the same place.”

However, the survey also notes that co-payment for maintenance issues seems not to be of interest.

“Only 25 per cent say they are very likely to join others in paying for a shared service or improvement. This matters for any co-payment or pooled-maintenance model,” reads the survey published in May.

The findings of this survey are part of the Plotting Pipeline study undertaken by CAHF, the SHOUT Group and Gmaurich Insights, with support from the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

The study explores the possibility of improving the living conditions of the over 200,000 people living on less than two square kilometres (2km2) of space, noting how densely populated the area is.

The study notes how this area, despite its challenges, is still thriving with units fully let, tenants paying their dues on time, and the landlords realising a return.

Its purpose is to determine if the living conditions in Pipeline could be improved. “The findings show a complex interplay of cause and effect, and just getting by. They highlight the potential for a better choreographed arrangement of urban governance, service delivery, investment, and simple living that suggest an important opportunity for housing the working poor in Africa’s cities,” it reads.

Some of the findings in the survey, however, are paradoxical. For example, ‘good size’ is the reason why most tenants chose the unit they are in, yet water, which earlier was mentioned as the least reason for someone to contribute to be fixed, is the top reason when it comes to moving out.

Being a low-income area for the working class, you would expect affordability to be the main reason why individuals move here. However, this is the second reason after ‘good size’.

“Unit size is the primary attraction (75 first-choice mentions) – a reason for having chosen this particular unit. It is not, however, mentioned as a reason to move out. Water supply is the single most common reason to move (65 mentions) — yet it is not mentioned as an attraction,” the survey says.

But maintenance and safety appear on both sides: they attract tenants to good buildings and push them out of bad ones. “These are the clearest signals of what would generate genuine tenant preference and loyalty,” the survey says.

The survey shares a testimony of a resident who moved within Pipeline Estate just to get their own toilet, citing private sanitation as a key upgrade in the area. It is one of the aspects that dictates housing decisions for residents.

“It is not aspirational — it is already a revealed market preference within Pipeline,” the survey says.

It documents that when asked whether the outside vs inside appearance made a difference to them, 87 per cent of respondents said the interior of the building and unit influenced their decision more than the exterior.

“This suggests landlord investment in facades has little return in tenant behaviour. Investment that reaches inside — unit condition, toilet quality, corridor maintenance — is what drives choice and retention,” the survey says.