Why scaling production, not supply, Is the real SAF challenge

There is enough raw material available to support the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and help the airline industry achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. However, the challenge lies in scaling up production, not in the availability of feedstock or lack of technology.

This is according to a new global study released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), in partnership with Worley Consulting. The study, titled Global Feedstock Assessment for SAF Production Outlook to 2050, confirms that the supply of sustainable feedstock is sufficient to meet long-term climate goals for aviation.

Feedstocks are raw materials used to produce fuel or power industrial processes. The study found that all types of feedstock assessed meet strict sustainability standards and do not require any changes to land use, a critical factor in reducing environmental impact.

Despite the positive outlook on supply, the study warns of two major roadblocks: The slow adoption of technology needed to convert various feedstocks into SAF as well as competition for feedstock from other sectors, which puts pressure on supply availability for aviation.

Currently, only one SAF production method known as Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) is being used at commercial scale. It involves converting used cooking oil into jet fuel.

IATA says the airline industry will need around 500 million tonnes of SAF every year by 2050 to meet its climate targets. This can come from two main sources: Biomass and Power-to-Liquid (PtL) technologies.

Biomass, which includes organic waste, plants, and residues, could provide more than 300 million tonnes of SAF annually. However, some of this may be used by other industries. PtL, also known as e-SAF, will be required to meet the remaining demand.

Increasing investments

To maximise SAF production, the study recommends improving fuel conversion technology, increasing investment in production infrastructure, and streamlining logistics around feedstock supply chains.

“We now have clear evidence that feedstock availability is not a barrier to decarbonising aviation,” said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA.

“There is enough potential from sustainable sources to reach net zero by 2050. But this can only happen if we rapidly grow the SAF industry. We need shovels in the ground now.”

The study notes that building reliable feedstock supply chains, increasing technology rollout, and securing investment in SAF production capacity are critical steps.

It also calls on governments to create supportive policies that prioritise SAF production and reduce financial risks for investors.

Marie Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability, said the report also highlights the economic potential of SAF.

“Local and regional SAF production can create jobs, grow economies, and improve energy security,” she said.

“Governments, investors, and energy producers must work together. Policy certainty and cross-sector cooperation are crucial. The time to act is now.”

In Africa, several airlines are already exploring ways to produce and use SAF.

Kenya Airways (KQ), in its 2024 Sustainability Report launched in June, announced plans to begin SAF production in the next five years. The airline has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a local SAF producer and is looking to plant trees on degraded land in Kwale County, a former mining site, to create long-term feedstock.

More expensive

“We want to be part of the production process,” said Allan Kilavuka, CEO of Kenya Airways.

“We hope that by 2030, the trees will be mature, and we’ll have a working framework for producing SAF, not just for export, but for our own use.”

The airline has also invested in reforestation, planting over 1.2 million trees, with a plan to plant the same number every year going forward.

Kilavuka said that fuel accounts for about 64 per cent of the airline’s carbon emissions, making SAF a vital solution. However, he admitted that the transition to SAF will be difficult due to high costs and limited global supply.

“SAF currently costs four to five times more than traditional jet fuel. With such a price difference, someone has to pay and that will be the passenger,” he said.

Ethiopian Airlines Group also signed an MoU last year with Satarem America Inc. to collaborate on SAF production in Ethiopia.

Airlines in Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa are also looking into SAF development. IATA estimates that South Africa alone has the potential to produce between 3.2 and 4.5 billion litres of SAF annually.

With just 25 years left until the 2050 deadline, IATA is calling for urgent global action to turn SAF feedstock potential into reality.

“The future of SAF depends on decisions made today. We know the feedstock is there. Now it’s up to governments, energy companies, and the aviation industry to make it happen,” Walsh said.