Luhya unity remains a mirage as politicians, parties scramble for space

With the clock ticking towards the 2027 general elections amid political realignments across the country, the quest for Luhya unity continues to divide opinions.

In the past, Luhya leaders led by the late Masinde Muliro and the late Vice-President Kijana Wamalwa both struggled to rally the region as a bloc, but failed.

As the country gears up for the next general election, there are rising calls from various leaders in the region led by National Assembly Speaker and Ford-Kenya party leader Moses Wetangula, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya and a host of lawmakers, to have one political party to bargain for the position of the deputy president.

On the other hand, another group of leaders led by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, his DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa, Mumias East MP Peter Salasya, and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah are rooting for one of their own to go for the big seat.

Observers believe the appetite for presidency, regional kingpinship, and the formation of many regional political parties is scuttling the chances of the Luhya ascending to power or even securing a deputy president position.

Mudavadi, Wetang'ula, Natembeya, Oparanya, Governor Fernandes Barasa, Mumias East MP Peter Salasya, and Eugene Wamalwa are fighting to be the region's kingpin.

Mudavadi, Wetang'ula, and their cronies are pushing to have the community back President William Ruto in the forthcoming by-election and to be the regional kingpins.

However, their allies are pushing for the position of the Deputy President under one political party, a move that is likely to spark a rift among the local leaders, some of whom are aligned with various political parties.

Mudavadi, while speaking in Malava a week ago, urged the community not to be swayed by Governor Natembeya and other leaders drifting to a different direction and instead back President Ruto's reelection bid.

"It is evident that Ruto is going to win in 2027, he has united with the late ODM leader Raila Odinga and now his brother and KANU Chairman Gedion Moi. I want to urge my community to unite and support Ruto, let us not be distracted by a few leaders whose agenda is insults," said Mudavadi.

The lawmakers under the Western region MP Caucus, led by Sirisia MP John Walukhe, are rooting for a united front under one political party.

Lurambi MP Titus Khamala and a section of lawmakers have vowed to support Ruto's reelection bid under conditions that the post of deputy president be preserved for Luhya people.

"We have leaders who can lead as we plan to take over the presidency in 2032. We want the position of the deputy president in 2027," said Khamala.

Speaker Wetangula, while in a political function in Malava last month, said that he is closer to the presidency, considering that he is number three in the structures of the government and that he plans to succeed Ruto.

"After the President and his deputy, the speaker comes in as third in command, whether you like it or not, that is the truth and if God has decided that I will be the President in 2032, who are you to oppose?" paused Wetangula, adding that they have resolved to support the reelection bid of President Ruto.

However, as calls mount for the region to be given the position of Deputy President, Governor Natembeya, on the other hand, has mounted restless efforts to unite the region and go for the presidency and ensure the region moves away from Mudavdi, Wetang'ula and from Raila's dominance in the Western region and inroads being made by President Ruto under the UDA party.

Natembeya's move has rattled both Mudavadi and Wetangula and their allies with its slogan 'Tawe', which means 'No' in Luhya, that is continuing to gain attraction in the region and threatens to complicate Mudavadi and Wetangula's arithmetic ahead of the 2027 general election.

Natembeya is already crisscrossing the region, meeting Luhya elders from various counties, the first one being in Vihiga two weeks ago.

A week ago, he met King Nabongo Mumia II and Wanga elders, and this week, he has met with Busia elders in an effort to unite the region for the presidency.

"Mudavadi and Wetangula have never helped the people of the Western region; they are championing selfish politics, which I want our people to reject. We want to restore our dignity as the populous region, be part of those forming the government so that we can be on the national table as equal partners when sharing resources and not through a few individuals," said Natembeya while addressing locals during his visit to Nabongo cultural centre in Matungu, Kakamega County.

The community is also grappling with the emergence of regional political parties besides established parties that threaten to further scuttle efforts to have one regional party.

The region has several political parties, such as DAP-K of Wamalwa, Ford-Kenya of Wetangula, National Reconstruction Alliance of Busia Senator and Presidential hopeful Okiya Omtata, Democratic National Alliance under Godfrey Kanoti and United Patriotic Movement (UPM), a newly formed party by Senator Boni Khalwale, which complicates calls to have a regional party as leaders have divergent opinions and are pulling towards different directions.

ODM, which is the dominant party, is also facing uncertainty following the death of party leader Raila Odinga.

In Kakamega County, after a heated ODM county chairmanship election where Governor Fernandes Barasa emerged the winner, a group of ODM lawmakers dubbed G8 opposed Barasa's win and instead rallied behind Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera, who was contesting against the governor.

Barasa maintains that he is the one holding the key in Kakamega County as ODM chairman and that ODM will be part of the formation of the next government and the region.

However, ODM party officials have termed the rebel lawmakers as the Trojan horse of Oparanya, who is plotting to form his own party to lead an onslaught against his political mentor, the late Raila, and that the MPs are creating confusion in the party to get a reason for walking out.

Vihiga Senator and ODM Deputy Party Leader Gidfrey Osotsi has opposed any plans to have a regional party, stating that ODM is the party for the Western region.

"The only party we know in Western is ODM, I am not part of the plans to have a regional party. We have benefited as a region courtesy of ODM. I want to tell those leaders who are beneficiaries of ODM and are causing a crisis to leave in peace," said Osotsi.

The entry of the DCP party in the region through its deputy party leader, Cleophas Malala, has complicated the region's matrix with all leaders chasing different political dreams.

However, political analysts opine that calls to have a regional party are a tall order, and those calling for the region to settle on the position of the deputy president ahead of the 2027 general election are being selfish.

"Why would a larger community in terms of numbers want to be under a small community? What Mudavadi and Wetangula are rooting for is for their selfish interests. The Luhya should go for the presidency, and this tells you why they are reluctant; they are comfortable with ministerial posts and other appointments," said Dr Barack Muluka, a political analyst.

Muluka opined that a region can't have one political party, stating that the constitution allows multi-party democracy.

"We are in a multi-party democracy, and we cannot have one party as a region. The community has not benefited under the two leaders, and if it is to work with Natembeya, we are ready so that we can go for the presidency and not deputy president because the two are doing nonsensical politics," he said.

However, Martin Andati, a political analyst, opines that Mudavadi and Wetangula failed to secure a deputy president post after the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua and that they have no political muscle to do so.

"Mudavadi was cheated into folding his ANC party with a view of appointed as DP, but the post was given to Kithure Kindiki. Right now, the two cannot marshal the community to secure a deputy president position," said Andati.

However, Dismas Mokua, Political Risk Analyst, states that the Luhya nation will determine the outcome of the 2027 presidential general elections, and it is the reason why leading politicians and national political parties are pitching tents in Western Kenya.