Why July 7 protests were a nightmare

One day can make a difference to the life of a country. Saba Saba protests 35 years ago did just that, they ushered in a multiparty political system and a new constitution 20 years later.

The protests had origins in centralisation of power through one one-party system and abuse of that power. Sounds familiar? 

The 35th anniversary of Saba Saba protests may also change the life of this middle-aged nation. The day started as expected but I got suspicious when I noted the journey to CBD from my residence was taking three times longer on Google maps. Use that map to “smell “trouble on the road. Someone from my house returned home after about 30 minutes, the roads to CBD were closed. It reminded me of Covid-19 curfews and road blocks. 

Closing the CBD clearly demonstrated that politics takes precedence over economics. Yet in the run-up to 2022 polls, economics was the key issue. In addition, the anger and fear engulfing this country are all about the state of the economy. 

It seems to me that July 7 anniversary was a logical extension of June 25, the first anniversary of Gen Z riots over the Finance Bill, another economic issue. July 7 was more vicious and scary. In both cases, the economy got hurt. One curious observation is presence of young men armed with rungus alongside policemen. Was the police service 'outsourcing' some of its work? Who are these 'GoonZ', as I have heard them called? Can someone explain? 

On June 25, it was about looting in the city. On July 7 the city was locked and no business. Either way, entrepreneurs lost. What left everyone mouth agape was rioting and looting outside the city. Some something akin to scorched earth.

Were policemen brought to the city leaving the countryside unguarded? Is the use of goons a symptom of de-institutionalisation and its unintended consequences? How can a supermarket be looted in broad daylight? Remember August 1, 1982? 

Let’s put the CBD blockade in context. Kenya’s GDP is about $132 billion (Sh17.2 trillion). Divide that by 365 days assuming we work every day. Then factor the contribution of Nairobi to GDP, which is about 30 per cent. The loss is about Sh14 billion per day. Closing the city was that costly. 

Why are these anniversaries an inflection point. Remember your math? 

The protests clearly show Finance Bill, 2024 was only a symptom of deeper socio-economic problems. National anger came out clearly in June last year over unfulfilled economic promises, corruption, taxes, health, housing levy, education and feeling of exclusion from government we voted for. These issues are close to our lives, hence the depth of anger. 

We did not give the nation any means to dissipate this national anger. A good avenue would be holding by-elections. What of superordinate goals such as Vision 2030 or free education? Something to leave Kenyans talking. 

Instead of dissipating fear, the government has cross-pollinated it with fear. No wonder July 7 was so bad. The fear is espoused by abductions, killings, looting and language and the tone used by some of our leaders. A mixture of fear and anger can be explosive. It’s worse when it’s doused with hopelessness. 

Let’s give credit where it’s due: someone must have listened to Winston Churchill, never waste a good crisis. We wasted one last year by not turning Genz protests into real reforms. We have wasted this year’s crisis by labeling Saba Saba anniversary protests as tribal—read mountain riots. Yet the mountain vote made all the difference in 2022 polls. Can we institute some genuine and far reaching political and economic reforms?

Where do we go from here? 

The reaction to July 7 anniversary riots has been perplexing. Piling more fear with shooting the legs and terrorist charges. A video of a dead Kenyan being dragged into a police station traumatised me. It reminded me of a Mau Mau freedom fighter tied to a tractor and dragged along to teach others a lesson, a true story as told by a witness. 

Why are our leaders so hard on ordinary Kenyans, treating them as crooks needing discipline or punishment? Ordinary Kenyans are just seeking an honest living. 

One solution to our current political stalemate is to give Kenyans hope, that tomorrow can be better than today and we be honest with them. False promises erode trust. That truth should be about jobs, health, education and other issues annoying them. 

Two, we must bring Kenyans to the table for a dialogue. At 60, we are old enough as a nation to resolve our issues. A 60 year-old man is an elder! Is that why the international community is quiet unlike in the 1990s? Ninety-nine per cent of Kenyans will never leave this country. We must learn to live together. The problem is who to bring us together, who can we trust? With everyone co-opted into the government, getting 50 righteous men, to be biblical, is proving hard. 

Three, by-elections can be a safety valve. The excitement will dissipate anger and fear over 2027. Remember polls are one of the most effective political safety valves. Why Did USA get midterm elections, which we conveniently ignored while copying their constitution? Did we see nominated MPs or Women Reps? 

Four, every Kenyan should feel part of the government, as a stakeholder. The feeling that some Kenyans are political squatters is unhealthy and toxic. 

Five, it's the economy, stupid—to quote Bill Clinton's advisor James Carville. The business and entrepreneur community is gripped by fear. Have we forgotten 80 per cent of our economy is informal? They fear regulations and tax will destroy their livelihoods. They are too cautious to invest or expand. The consumers fear spending. That is why inflation is falling! The trust between the government and private sector must be restored. They need each other just like a pair of scissors. 

Six, use humour to deflate anger and fear, it’s the most parsimonious approach. See the Kenyan humour online? 

Finally, the solution to our socio-political problem lies within our borders. After handling the nullification of presidential polls, Covid-19 and Gen Z riots, we have enough resilience to resolve our problems. But do we have enough national patience and goodwill among all the political players? Crises spawn leaders. Can they stand up?