Time to halt slow puncture of Kenya's economic dream

Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate slowed from 4.7 per cent in 2024 to 4.6 per cent in 2025, says the latest economic survey 2026. The slowdown was low, a slow economic puncture.

It’s an echo from Covid-19, Gen Z demonstrations and national anger over unfulfilled political promises. The weather has been kind, but a recent visit around the Aberdares and western Kenya was a matter of concern.

The rains are subdued, and around the Aberdares, frost is a threat in the background, less known than floods and drought. We also expect an economic hiccup from the Iran war.

The complexity with economic growth is that it’s lagging. The effect of events today will be felt in future. A good example is that the effect of the Iran war could be felt next year or many years to come.

Prices of goods and services will not come down significantly even if oil prices fall. The same applies to positive events like innovations; we don’t enjoy the benefits immediately.

We shall not enjoy the full benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) today. It took years before we felt the surge in productivity because of the Internet. The lag in M-Pesa was shorter.

Let’s get back to the slow puncture. Noted how tyre bursts have become rare? Tubeless tyres are safer than “tubeful.” In tubeless tyres, slow punctures are more common; air comes out slowly. It’s less dangerous than bursts, but it eventually slows you down.

How are we slowly puncturing the economy and slowing it?

One is through unfulfilled economic promises. Inflation is still high; leave the official data for now; joblessness haunts the country too. My head is spinning; did I hear the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has been using the wrong model in forecasting inflation?

Citizens adjust to that; they work less, are less productive and angry. If you fail to reward hard-working workers, they reward themselves by working less.

We “feel” the anger over promises on the streets, in the hamlets and media. Few can argue that optimism is high. Good news is rare. Noted even the World Cup is stale? How much is discussed on it online?

Two, demonstrations are an outward expression of that anger. They have been subdued. Now citizens will turn the economic anger to themselves, to each other. Watch the change in behaviour in offices, matatus, and homes.

Happy people are more economically productive. And out of curiosity, is there a connection between the Gen Z 2024 protests and burning of schools, no matter how remote?

Three is the fear. Since a wave of abductions, that fear is real and palpable. A cloud of fear hangs over our no longer young nation. Noted the silence everywhere, even in supposedly private places like WhatsApp groups.

The first victim of fear is innovation, which comes from exchange and challenging ideas. Innovation is not just about the new iPhone or car; it’s also about how we run governments, institutions, and firms.

Lack of innovation slowly punctures the economy. Think of Kenya without M-Pesa or the world without the internet. Innovation is also tied to institutional renewal or rebirth, the main purpose of democracy.

Four is corruption. It’s like a nail on a tyre. It “closes” the hole but air still flows. The slow puncturing of the economy by corruption is limitless. That money you give to a policeman, to get a place in a school, a job or a tender, all slowly punctures the economy.

It’s robbery, a forced transfer of resources from the efficient to the inefficient. You work to give money to idlers. Corruption is modern-day slavery.

Five, but subtle, is keeping us busy. Noted how everyone is busy, in offices and streets, but with no tangible output. That “business” is often tied to nepotism, to obscure the slow puncturing. Met a corrupt man or conman who is slow?

Six is the death of freedom. Our constitution is great on paper. But the reality on the ground is different. Basic freedoms like free speech are taking a backseat.

Conforming is a virtue now. When you hear someone talking about all schools wearing the same uniform, it’s more than the cotton material.

Most of us are old enough to sense and feel “KANU.” Freedom leads to more sharing of information, exposes inefficiencies, allows exploitation of opportunities and reduces nepotism. Freedom of the press is an economic growth catalyst.

Seven, is the popularity of legal solutions instead of real-life solutions; increase the fines and prison sentences, not get to the root cause of crime. It’s easier to jail someone than create jobs.

It’s easier to impose new levies than catalyse economic growth to create more jobs and taxes. Why inspect cars yet modern cars easily show the faults electronically? Why a booking fee? Are our new rules and regulations filtered by economic reality?

Eight, physically closing the economy through road blocks and other restrictions of movement.

Still debating slow puncturing? Check your pocket or bank account in the last five years. You are probably not a victim of a burglary, job loss or a disaster, but you’ve got less and less money.

Is that not an economic slow puncture? Will 2027 polls end economic slow puncturing or make it a tyre bust? Been a victim of economic slow puncturing? Talk to us.