Will he thrive where others failed? Ruto makes strides to bag Nyanza

Winning over the hearts and minds of the Nyanza voting bloc is a dream that several past presidents have harbored and made efforts to achieve as they strived to tighten their grip on power.

It is an effort that has taken toil, sweat, and tears for some amid political goodies and appointments in an attempt to woo over the region.

But still, very few have come close to cracking the support of the stubborn enclave that has been a fruitless hunting ground for nearly all the country's past presidents.

Here, the shelf life of the acceptance of past presidents has been dependent on the political position of ODM leader Raila Odinga and his late father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

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In his four-day visit, Ruto borrowed the script that was adopted by former president Uhuru Kenyatta by promising the region with a set of his own list of Handshake projects.

Unlike Uhuru, however, he has tweaked his goodies to the region by high-level appointments of Raila's allies to his government.

The strategy he adopted to win over Nyanza is a stark contrast to past presidents who never considered top political appointments from the region. Some of them even sidelined top qualified experts from the region to consider other regions.

Observers believe Ruto has made significant strides in winning over the region and claim several factors appear to favor his incursions. These include the change of Raila's focus from local politics to continental politics.

Political Strategist Mark Bichachi said Ruto has a high chance of winning the support of the people of Nyanza in an effort to retain his seat in 2027.

Bichachi argued that the people of Luo Nyanza are characterized by following political leaders, rather than rebelling against governments in Kenya.

“The people of Nyanza have shown that they follow their political leaders and this can be substantiated through their support to Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and currently, ODM leader Raila Odinga. The most important factor is who their leader supports,” Bichachi said.

He opined that Raila is supporting Ruto and this will enable Ruto to win the support of the people of Nyanza.

“Raila Odinga is the leader Azimio but he is frustrating Azimio because he is supporting Ruto. He is killing the opposition and this is giving Ruto 100 percent chances of winning the Presidential election in 2027,” Bichachi said.

High Court Advocate and former Homa Bay County Assembly Speaker Samuel Ochillo said the ongoing political goodwill gives him a high chance of winning the support of the entire Nyanza people.

This has resulted from his decision to support ODM leader Raila Odinga for the African Union Commission Chairmanship (AUC) post and appointing John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi as Energy and National Treasury cabinet secretaries respectively.

“President Ruto will succeed in winning the support of the  Luo community and Nyanza in general. This is based on the ongoing political goodwill between him and the Luo community,” Ochillo said.

The lawyer said the community feels that they should be in government; hence they will easily support Ruto to enable them to achieve their dream.

Leaders from the region claimed the president has shown them goodwill and rewarded the region more than the rewards they got during the 2018 handshake between former president Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila.

At the time, Uhuru was serving his last term but rewarded the region with key infrastructural projects including the revival of the Kisumu-Nakuru railway line, construction of the Kisumu port, Uhuru Business Park, a stadium, among others.

However, in his list of goodies to the region, none of Raila's allies became part of his cabinet.

Observers believe the appointments is part of the masterstroke the president hopes to dangle to the region to win over their support. In his visit to the region, the president attended the homecoming ceremonies of the two leaders.

ODM insiders told Sunday Standard that the homecoming ceremonies were planned strategically to help the president market his appointees and pitch to the region why they should back his presidency.

On Friday, the president was showered with praises for appointing Wandayi to lead the Energy docket as the leaders also rallied the region to back the president, arguing that he is supporting Raila for the AU post.

"The president is a true friend. He supported Raila to become the Prime Minister and is now supporting him for the AU position," said Governor James Orengo. 

Although some of Raila's allies maintain that ODM will field a candidate in 2027, observers believe the likelihood of Raila not being in the ballot advances Ruto's chances of winning over his support bases.

“There are high chances that Raila will not be on the ballot come 2027.  This will make the Luo community support President Ruto because the mood in Nyanza is that the people should no longer be in opposition,” says Ochillo.

The region has been in opposition for many decades since independence. The community also rebelled against former presidents Jomo Kenyatta, Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta.

President William Ruto has also been witnessing similar rebellion since was sworn into office after 2022 General election, with his few allies subjected to hostility in most parts of the region.

During the thanksgiving ceremony of the National Treasury CS John Mbadi in Suba South Constituency,  President Ruto said he is ready to partner with ODM which is the most dominant political party in Nyanza, in forming the next government.

“Because people want to be in the government, let ODM join me so that we form a government. This will enable us to have a win-win situation. We want to do away with politics of ethnicity and division in this country,” Ruto said.

Unlike his predecessors, Ruto has started his efforts to crack the region in his first term in office.

Before his soft handshake with Raila, the president through his allies had embarked on an ambitious drive to market the UDA party in the region in a series of membership drives.

Questions, however, remain whether the efforts will bear fruit in the long term.

Pints of success of his incursions appeared during his visit to the region as Raila's allies also threw their weight behind his presidency.

According to the National Assembly Minority Leader and Suna East MP Junet Mohammed, the time had come for the people of Nyanza to be in the government.

Junet argued that the people of Nyanza will no longer be in the opposition after the 2027 General election.

“I am holding this position of this position as the National minority leader for the next three years only. Thereafter, we will be in the government,” Mohammed said.

Rangwe MP Lilian Gogo said President Ruto has shown seriousness in wooing the support of the Luo community and people of the entire Nyanza.

Dr Gogo said the appointments that Ruto made for the Cabinet secretary positions demonstrated that he is interested in supporting of Nyanza people.

“My observation is that the President is serious in working with the people of Nyanza. He has seen the significance of working with Mr Odinga and this will help him a lot,” Dr Gogo said.

She said Ruto will succeed in wooing the people of Nyanza if he fulfills his pledges by completing the development projects he started in the region.

“What Kenyans require is truthfulness in leadership. If the President completes the development projects he started and continues the good relations with Raila, I think he will find it easy to win support of the people Nyanza,” Gogo said.

The MP warned Kenyans against political enmity.

“It is only a fool who can maintain a permanent grudge in politics. But a smart politician must know that there is neither permanent enmity nor permanent friendship in politics.  Ruto is a Kenyan and he is free to traverse Nyanza region and win the support of residents but all these depend on how he plays his cards,” Gogo said.

On any possible fallout, the MP said further decisions will be made as the electioneering period nears.

For a region yearning for development, questions remain whether the projects that the president had dangled to the region will be completed. Some observers believe the impact of the projects will be crucial in pushing for Ruto's popularity in the region.

Some of the projects are the construction of Koru Soin dam, the revival of small ports and the construction of a fisheries research center in Kano that have all stalled.