Opposition is missing the mark as Ruto struggles, analysts now say

Opinion is divided over the role the opposition can play in unlocking the current stalemate between the government and Gen Z protesters to bring the country back to normalcy.

The country's minority parties in the house, which in Kenya's context are official opposition, have been lacklustre, failing to offer alternative leadership as is envisioned in the current constitution and democratic tradition.

The United Kingdom remains a most recent example where the new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, leading a robust opposition under the Labour party, took advantage of a sickly majority party under the Conservatives' Rishi Sunak, gave the country an alternative voice winning the recent election with a resounding majority. The UK is now expectant as things begin to point towards the normal. 

Some analysts argue that it is time Kenya's opposition took the lead in convening the young people and build a framework that will help address governance issues they want addressed by President William Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza administration.

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But a different school of thought posits that opposition politicians have no moral obligation to lead the conversation because they have been identified as being part of the old order.

Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University thinks the opposition should use the opportunity to not just assert themselves more, but to also direct the young people to achieve their objectives.

“I think the opposition made the right choice not to jump into the protests early and that allowed the protestors to identify the problems they want to be addressed as soon as possible,” says Naituli.

And so the opposition gave the Gen Zs space to demonstrate that they also have solutions to serious issues in the country. Interference could have denied them that opportunity and everything raised could have been lost.

It is also worth noting that the opposition has raised the same issues in the past but not with the same force and agency. It was therefore necessary for them to take a backseat and allow the new generation to exert themselves.

The Gen Z have said they are raising problems that their parents and other Kenyans currently face, including also those that will affect their own future and that of their children.

Naituli, however, thinks that although the young people have so far done well and forced unprecedented gains from the government, time is now ripe for the opposition to redirect the Gen Z energy to positive outcomes.

That is because they cannot continue with endless demonstrations, which can only stop once Gen Z come up with an objective through a structured discussion.

“The opposition can provide such a platform because they have the experience and knowledge to redirect the energy of the youth and get good results that can benefit the country,” says Naituli.

The problem is that the young protestors have repeatedly cautioned the opposition to keep off, and only a week ago cautioned ODM leader Raila Odinga against promoting the call for dialogue with them and President Ruto.

Naituli says the animosity was because they didn’t want to be taken advantage of, and the fact that they have watched politicians mess their future by introducing bad policies that have made education almost inaccessible.

Gen Z have also repeatedly called on the government to implement and uphold the Constitution, arguing that dialogue between them and politicians would be unnecessary if the law was followed to the letter.

Political observers have called for a sober approach from agitated youth because the slogan “Ruto must go” may not be realised, largely due to demands that the entire government, including the deputy president leave office.

If they remove the president and his deputy, then the Speaker takes over for 90 days, before calling for elections, but more chaos will follow because the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission is not constituted.

Naituli thinks it will be wise for the opposition to constitute town hall meetings across the country and give some wisdom for young people to register as voters in large numbers and also make them understand that elections can only be held every five years.

“They need town hall meetings from where they will explain to them that they are not interfering to give Ruto any space, but to preserve the integrity of the country,” added Naituli.

Prof Peter Kagwanja of The Africa Policy Institute does not see opposition leaders playing any role in the way forward because all top politicians, both in government and Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition, belong to the old order.

He says the Gen Zs may be too young to recall that what the country is going through resulted from political realignments that President Daniel arap Moi made at the Kenya African National Union (Kanu) delegates conference on March 18, 2002.

During that famous meeting at Kasarani, New Kanu was formed after delegates endorsed the merger of Raila Odinga’s National Development Party into Kanu with the opposition leader being appointed Secretary General.

Kagwanja pointed out that all those appointed on that day into senior positions in New Kanu, including Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, and Ruto are still influencing politics, something the Gen Z don’t want.

“From their differences, they have influenced and shaped our politics but they should realise that the old order is dead because of the Gen Z protests. Kenya is going through the birth of a new moral order that must exclude all those people. I think there is no letting off until this old order goes,” says Kagwanja.

He further argues that the current politics based on rewards and paybacks to loyalists will cease because people are now demanding scrutiny and examination of morals for those seeking leadership positions.

He further noted that Ruto will be under intense pressure to return some people, especially former CSs from Rift Valley and Mt Kenya into the Cabinet, but that will not be possible because the country wants a clean slate.

“Ruto’s future does now depend on a new moral order. If he wants to create one, then he must go along with this new crusade but those seeking change must also play by the rules,” says Kagwanja.

He further stated that Ruto can still recover and get re-elected in 2027, depending on how he navigates out of the current crisis without creating room for more discontent against him.

He cautioned President Ruto to: “Chaperone this turbulent phase well so that the country can forge ahead. Removing him from power in the interim is going to throw the country into unknown uncertainty because it is at a tipping point.”

Dr Hassan Khanneje, The Director of Horn Institute, a research and policy think tank based in Nairobi, also advices that although the “Ruto must go” slogan is exciting to the youth and the opposition, it is recklessly pushing things to the limit.

“Let us face it, he was elected to serve until 2027 and there is likelihood that whether or not you like him, we are going to be with the current president until then,” says Khanneje.

He says the extremist position taken by Gen Z and some opposition leaders does not provide a decent environment for dialogue.

He however called for a serious consideration of the demands Kenyans are making because they want a more competent and accountable government that is more balanced, and which does not overburden them with excessive taxation.

“Kenyans are also calling for an end to corruption which is a national security threat. If State House moves in that direction, then we can have the bare minimums met from demands raised by Gen Z,” he added.

Khanneje thinks Ruto’s government can be taken seriously if it starts holding corrupt people to account, and those responsible for extrajudicial killings produce abducted victims who are still missing.

He argues that the president has a judicial mandate to lead and should not be forced to resign, because then the deputy president takes over but that is not what Gen Z want.

Naituli echoes those sentiments, also cautioning that removing him could create a problem for the country. He has asked President Ruto to act on issues raised that may not need dialogue by simply implementing what is in the Constitution.

“I understand the Gen Z pain. Ruto needs to return health insurance for the children, free primary education, full secondary school capitation to secondary and return the old university funding model,” added Naituli.

He also called on the president to order a stop to all ongoing abductions, the release all arrested people, compensation of all injured and dead and then request time to do other things listed by Gen Z.

The president should also treat Gen Z as partners and problem solvers, but not as enemies, to stop radicalising them, otherwise they will be more emboldened and then create a big problem for the country as they are all over Kenya.