Generation Z revolt threatens Raila's traditional role as presidential 'saviour'

For a quarter of a century, four Kenyan Presidents have reached out to Azimio leader Raila Odinga to save their presidency at their political nadir moments essentially making him an enigma in Kenyan politics and a political intercessor.

But what has been a larger-than-life political life for Raila is on the verge of being extinguished by the ongoing Gen Z revolt that is turning Kenya’s political scene upside down.

In the past, Raila has played a critical role in turning around the political lives of the late Mzee Daniel Arap Moi, the Late Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta, and now President William Ruto who had started roping Raila into his press conferences and meetings. Raila has come in handy to the four presidents to steer their ship during turbulent times.

For a quarter of a century, Raila has straddled the Kenyan political scene, enchanting the arena with his prowess.

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Political pundits who write him off after he entered different phases of his political life have been forced to swallow their words, leaving them reluctant to delve into the Azimio leader’s politics.

 Pushed to the wall

Last week, President Ruto facing a revolt of Kenya’s youths picked the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader from his continental campaign trail where he is seeking to be African Union Commission (AUC) chair, to help him wriggle out of the political impasse.

But Kenya’s youngest adults have put the Head of State in political dilemma pushing him to a wall as they seek more and more accountability.

The uprising began with calls for the rejection of the Finance Bill 2024 but later snowballed into a revolution fighting against bad governance and corruption in the Kenya Kwanza government. That has put the president in a politically awkward position.

Now popularly known as Gen-Z protests have pushed President Ruto to the limits forcing him to send the Finance Bill back to the House, have the military police in the streets, and dismiss his  20-month-old Cabinet. Yet Gen Z are not satisfied with that and are today pushing him to make more changes in his government.

On Tuesday, youths held more demonstrations against the government increasing the pressure on the Head of State.

The protests have put Ruto in a precarious political situation with every move making his situation dicey.

Euphorically elected in August 2022, beating a strong government-backed Azimio formation, President Ruto’s approval ratings have plummeted. He has lately been forced to take the beaten path walked by former Presidents the Late Mzee Daniel Arap Moi, the Late Mwai Kibaki and his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta.

But, in recent days, Raila has found himself under firepower from the youths who have warned the opposition leader that he does not speak for them.

Siding with ‘oppressors’

Hours after Raila came out of the KICC meeting with President Ruto and some of Kenya Kwanza's top leaders, where they agreed on a multi-sectoral dialogue aimed at addressing issues raised by Gen Z, the youth distanced themselves from him.

Raila’s bid to have dialogue received an immediate backlash with the youths accusing him of attempting to hijack their movement by siding with their Kenya Kwanza government which they termed as the oppressors.

“Dear Raila Odinga, your decision today, to stand with our oppressors validated our choice of not wanting you involved in our protests from the beginning,” the statement sent on social media read in part.

They added; “We will not allow you to hijack our movement to satisfy your political greed. You do not speak for us and today you have shown that you stand with the thieves and killers. We will not be silenced. We will drain the swamp with you in it. This is not business as usual,” 

Under former Presidents, Raila the son of the Kenya’s first Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga has become a pacifying factor when things went politically south in their tenures.

On 18 March 2002, against the wishes of his family and party members, Raila led a merger of KANU led by the Late President Moi and his National Development Party (NDP) approved by their 6,000 delegates.

Battling a waning popularity in the independence party heading to the third multiparty election (2002) after changing section 2A of the constitution, Moi brought in Raila’s NDP to shower up the chances of Kanu to retain decades-long hold on power.

President Moi said Kenya was entering the lively competitive democratic contest for national leadership and needed to show the globe that it was united and peaceful.

 KANU, LDP Merger

The merger had been preluded by events of the October 14, 1998 political instance where Raila’s NDP used their numbers to thwart a vote of no confidence in Moi by Ugenya’s Ford-Kenya MP James Orengo. 

During the motion, Kanu had a slight majority of 113 against the opposition, 109 MPs and when it came to the vote, most of the opposition MPs as well as Kanu rebels backed Orengo’s move, which was, however, defeated as some opposition members allied to Raila voted with Kanu.

As a payback, President Moi rewarded Raila by appointing him Minister for Energy.

More than 25 years later, President Ruto a week ago approached Raila for a political helping hand and is now on track to incorporate the opposition in a broad-based government after sources said Raila had yielded to the besieged head of state’s request to have the Azimio leader help him stabilize the country.

In a near handshake situation, President Ruto, his Deputy Rigathi Gachagua, and the Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi posed for a photo with Raila and his Azimio brigade outside Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) in a subtly political pacifying opportunity.

Before reaching out to Raila, Ruto had in recent weeks been forced to converse with the youths who had threatened to breach the walls of State House for a dialogue with him.

Ruto could have picked the cue from his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta, who pulled a political masterstroke by climbing down from the political Tower of Babel and reaching out to Raila at the nadir of his presidency.

 The handshake

Coming at a time when sections of Kenyans had called for cessation with maps flying around indicating their wish for a two-state solution on Kenya, the March 9, 2018 handshake that brought together Uhuru and Raila at the steps of Harambee House radically changed the situation, again pacifying the restless country.

With the handshake, Uhuru and Raila not only buried the generational deadly rivalry between the Kenyatta and Odinga families, but also brought down the political temperatures in the country.

The Kenyatta versus Odinga antagonism had been birthed by their feuding fathers, the first President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and his Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga in the nascent period of the 1960s post-independence government.

But it is the secret meeting at the Sagana State Lodge between controversially re-elected President Mwai Kibaki and Raila that sealed the deal that ended 2007/2008 post-election violence that left over 1,000 Kenyans dead. The move by Kibaki to reach out secretly to Raila who had claimed victory in the December 2007 Presidential election saved the country from the precipice of political destruction.

According to political analyst Dismas Mokua, had Raila remained tone-deaf, the fighting would have easily snowballed into a civil war that would  have turned the country into another statistic in the conflict-ridden Horn of Africa. “With his victory perceived to have been stolen, it must take a statesmanlike heart to yield and agree on talks,” said Mokua.

Whether Raila will survive to be relevant in the wake of Kenya’s youngest adults this time is a story historians will be keen to follow.