Ruto banks on Kinyanjui to win crucial Nakuru vote bloc in 2027

President William Ruto’s decision to appoint former Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui to his Cabinet has raised his prospects of rebuilding support from one of the key regions that will be instrumental in his re-election in the 2027 polls.

Kinyanjui, a close ally of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, is among those who have been critical of Ruto’s leadership and commands considerable support in Nakuru.

The President is keen to win over the region, which holds one of the highest numbers of votes.

Observers argue that the elevation of Kinyanjui to Trade Cabinet Secretary is likely to have profound political ramifications in the county.

Nakuru, which has 1.1 million registered voters according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s (IEBC) voter register, occupies a special place in the country’s political architecture, influencing the outcome of presidential elections.

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Kinyanjui lost the gubernatorial contest to Susan Kihika due to his association with the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya presidential candidate Raila Odinga, who was Ruto’s main challenger.

The former governor spearheaded the Azimio campaign in the South Rift region, much to the chagrin of UDA supporters, who viewed him as a traitor after supporting him to win the gubernatorial seat in 2017 and who were now backing Ruto’s presidential bid.

Kinyanjui commanded a large political following, which at one point made him consider seeking to be Raila’s running mate in the last General Election.

Over the years, the leader has endeared himself to most people in the region due to his non-confrontational approach to political issues and ability to strike a balance in a region that had previously been regarded as the epicentre of politically-instigated violence.

After his loss in the election, Kinyanjui steered clear of local politics, a characteristic that seemed contrary to the common habit of Kenyan politicians.

He has also been regarded as a level-headed leader who has avoided making inflammatory or divisive utterances in a potentially volatile county, regarded as the melting pot of Kenya due to its diverse ethnic composition.

Kinyanjui kept off public appearances and only attended specific events, such as burials and selected church functions, where he restrained himself from making political statements.

His elevation to a Cabinet position will redefine his political trajectory, especially as he will now stand head and shoulders above other leaders in the region.

Two days before the announcement of the Cabinet changes, Kinyanjui posted a cryptic message on his Facebook account, stating that the last few weeks had offered him valuable lessons and he listed ten of them.

Some believe Kinyanjui will play a key role in President Ruto’s efforts to rebuild bridges with the populous Kikuyu community.

“His nomination to the Cabinet is likely to stir debate among the Kikuyu in the diaspora, who form a key voting bloc outside the Mt Kenya region and who have often been ignored by successive governments,” says Kimani wa Kimani, a former adviser to the inaugural Nakuru Governor, Kinuthia Mbugua.

“Ruto picked Zachariah Njeru to head the Lands docket, and he has picked Kinyanjui for the Trade ministry – this is a good gesture. Kinyanjui has the muscle and brainpower to turn things around. He will be instrumental in roping in the Kikuyu diaspora,” he observes.

However, he cautions that the appointment could be a double-edged sword, as it may endear Kinyanjui to a section of the Nakuru voting bloc that voted against Ruto for failing to support his presidential bid, while also alienating a community that views him as a traitor for accepting the Cabinet appointment.

“There is a huge chunk of the Nakuru voting bloc that rejected him at the ballot for going against their wishes by supporting Raila’s presidential bid. Another group will be unhappy with him for taking the appointment at a time when they are rebelling against UDA,” he claims.

Nakuru Town East MP Samuel Arama says Kinyanjui can rally the people behind the Kenya Kwanza government due to his influence in the region.

“I welcome his appointment to the Cabinet. Kinyanjui is a person who can unite the people and help ease the current rebellion against the government,” Arama adds.

However, Victor Ngatia, a youth who has been vocal about good governance, views Kinyanjui’s entry into government as a double-edged sword. “Kinyanjui’s entry into government can either destroy his political career or reinvigorate it.

‘‘It all depends on the performance of the Kenya Kwanza government. If the poor performance continues, Kinyanjui’s political career is finished,” Ngatia argues.

He says it would be challenging for Kinyanjui to rally the Kikuyu in the diaspora behind Ruto due to the current rebellion against the Ruto administration, stemming from the mounting economic problems facing the people.

“Kinyanjui will not achieve much if the youth rebellion persists and the government fails to deliver. He has a huge task ahead of him.

‘‘He stood a better chance of reclaiming the gubernatorial seat in 2027 if he kept away from the current government,” he says.