Can UAE deal make Kenya Dubai of Africa?

The recent signing of a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (Cepa) between Kenya and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) heralds a significant shift in economic relations that could position Kenya as a central player in Africa’s trade landscape, analysts say.

The agreement, the first of its kind between the UAE and an African nation, aims to enhance trade, attract investment, and create jobs.

UAE and Kenya government officials reckon the Cepa is not merely a bilateral trade agreement, adding it represents a “strategic manoeuvre for both countries.”

For Kenya, the agreement is an opportunity to solidify its status as a gateway to East Africa, while the UAE seeks to diversify its oil-dependent economy and expand its reach into African markets.

The potential for Kenya to emulate Dubai’s rapid transformation into a global trade hub is also seen as significant, given the right investments and infrastructural development, experts said.

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President William Ruto emphasised this potential during the signing ceremony on Tuesday, saying the deal would catalyse job creation and accelerate economic growth.

With the UAE already Kenya’s second-largest source of imports and sixth-largest export destination—bilateral trade reached $3.3 billion in 2023—the groundwork for a more integrated economic relationship is firmly established.

Documents reviewed by The Standard show that the pact aims to eliminate trade barriers, improve market access, and foster investment across key sectors including agriculture, tourism, and technology.

With Kenyan exports, particularly in meat, fruits, vegetables, and flowers, poised for growth, the agreement could substantially boost the nation’s agricultural sector.

In 2023, for example, Kenya exported Sh9.9 billion worth of meat to the UAE, comprising over half of its total meat exports.

The agreement facilitates enhanced cooperation in services, recognising the sector’s essential role in economic development.

Areas such as professional services and the digital economy are set to benefit, creating opportunities for Kenyan service providers in the UAE market.

Dubai’s transformation from a desert backwater to a bustling trade and tourism hub serves as an aspirational model for Nairobi.

While Dubai is renowned for its luxury shopping, modern architecture, and vibrant nightlife, Nairobi possesses similar characteristics on a smaller scale.

This potential for growth hinges on strategic investments, improved infrastructure, and a conducive business environment. The UAE’s experience in creating a global logistics and financial hub could provide valuable lessons for Kenya.

As Dubai has become a center for expatriates and global professionals, Nairobi could similarly attract talent and investment, particularly if it leverages its geographical advantages and rich cultural heritage.

However, challenges remain. Ensuring effective implementation of the agreement requires both countries to ratify the deal and commit to fostering a favourable investment climate.

The Cepa aligns with Kenya’s broader trade strategy, which includes agreements with the European Union, the UK, and the African Continental Free Trade Area.

The agreement holds the potential to transform Nairobi into the ‘Dubai of Africa’ but this ambition will depend on strategic execution and collaboration.

By capitalising on its strengths and learning from the UAE’s successful economic model, Kenya can enhance its trade capabilities and economic resilience, analysts say.

As the agreement moves toward ratification, the real challenge will be to ensure that it translates into tangible benefits for Kenyan businesses and creates sustainable job opportunities for its citizens.