Will William Ruto's charm offensive tours in Western give him votes come 2027?

As political realignments in the country continue and new centres of influence emerge, questions abound about whether President William Ruto’s charm offensive in Western will solidify his shaky popularity.

For a whole week, the government’s show of power and opulence reverberated through the skies of Western Kenya as luxurious vehicles and helicopters honked through the region in search of support.

While it had been described as a working tour, observers believe the President’s visit to the region and his bags of goodies are part of a wider strategy to build grassroots support for his administration and his reelection campaign in 2027.

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka kicked off the storm by accusing Ruto of engaging in premature campaigns disguised as efforts to unite Kenyans.

“Kenya is more united than before to get rid of him in the next general election since he has displayed high levels of incompetence in running the country,” Kalonzo said, referencing the President’s activities in the region.

• .

  Keep Reading

• 
  'Not our State House', Kenyans outraged over renovations
• 
  'Not our State House', Kenyans outraged over renovations
• 
  Lawyers: What's next after Cabinet's decision on dissolving, merging State Corporations?
• 
  Lost in translation: Kenya's endless dance with parastatals and the IMF expectations

However, President Ruto while in Busia County dismissed the claims emphasising his focus is on implementing his development agenda.

“There are those saying that I am campaigning. Don’t start to panic this early because if we start campaigning, you will run away,” Ruto remarked during a rally in the county.

Ruto said he is a man on a mission of ensuring all regions in the country have an equal opportunity to benefit in terms of development, accusing Kalonzo of poking holes in the process of giving sugarcane farmers from the Western region a bonus.

READ: Ruto pledges timely delivery of key projects during Western region tour

“A year ago, I promised the people of Kenya that I would streamline the cane farming, and it is exactly what I did after getting rid of sugar cartels, and that is why this Monday, we have paid our farmers their first-ever sugar bonus. I am shocked that some leaders are asking why the government has helped Mumias Sugar Company to pay farmers bonuses. Is a cane farmer not a Kenyan farmer? The coffee and tea farmers are getting bonuses. When sugarcane farmers get bonuses is when people are asking questions. I think these people have been visited by the devil,” said Ruto.

Since the impeachment of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Raila Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship and his newfound relationship with Ruto, Western Kenya’s political landscape has been in flux.

Traditionally a stronghold for Odinga, who has dominated the region since 2007, the area is now up for grabs.

In the 2022 general election, Western Kenya, with over 2.2 million votes, was a key battleground, with Odinga scooping the region in his favour save for Bungoma County.

In 2022, Ruto’s activities in the region included working with Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula (Ford Kenya), both of whom shifted alliances to support the now-president, enabling him to win big in Bungoma, where he polled 255,907 votes against Odinga’s 145,240.

Out of the five counties of the Western region, Raila garnered 955,185 votes against Ruto who got 611,475 votes.

However, following the fallout with his former DP Gachagua, which led to resistance against him in the Central region that propelled him to power in 2022, the President has shifted his focus to the Western region with development goodies ahead of 2027.

During his entire tour of six days, the majority of the leaders who spoke during roadside rallies focused on development and rallying the community behind President Ruto.

Wetangula (the National Assembly Speaker), Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa, Cabinet Secretary for Cooperatives Wycliffe Oparanya, Busia Governor Paul Otuoma and Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka led other elected leaders to rally behind President Ruto for 2027.

Wetangula suggested that supporting Ruto in 2027 was the best path for a Luhya leader to ascend to the presidency in 2032.

READ: Ruto begins tour of Western as leaders cite bias in funds sharing

“My people, let us support President Ruto in 2027. The sure way for us (Luhyas) to one day ascend to the presidency is through our friend William Ruto,” Wetangula said in the Bukusu dialect. 

Wetangula and Mudavadi emphasized the role they played in the 2022 general elections to form the Kenya Kwanza government.

“People of Bungoma, you know well that you helped make this government. You voted in numbers for President William Ruto in the 2022 General Election,” Wetangula said. 

He urged the youth to register for government programmes and defend their community’s interests. He further asked President Ruto to pitch tent in the region to secure an easy re-election.

“Mr President, after every two months, be coming here in Bungoma, and for sure in 2027, they will vote for you as they are honest people with a stern stand in matters politics,” said Wetangula.

Mudavadi, who doubles as the Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary, echoed Wetangula’s sentiments. 

He highlighted efforts by President Ruto to unify the nation, emphasising the Head of State’s support for his 2022 presidential competitor Odinga to take up the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).

According to Mudavadi, Odinga’s potential exit from local politics has left the region up for grabs, and Ruto is suited to inherit that support.

“If Odinga is working with Ruto, I want to ask you, who else do you see can enter the race and defeat Ruto in 2027?” Mudavadi posed.

Political analysts believe that President Ruto has shifted his focus to the Western region to consolidate the 2.2 million votes after sensing that the Central region will not fully back his reelection bid due to his fallout with Gachagua, arguing that he still has a lot of work to do to win the region.

“The President is trying to court the region in the form of bringing development projects that to some extent are not substantive.

“However, this is after realising that he can equate the region’s vote with that of the Central region which is not with him. But he should know he has an uphill task,” said Baraka Muluka, a political analyst.

“Ruto managed to get more votes in the Central region because they had an issue with former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, which is different in the Western region. The Luhya nation has no issue with Raila or Kenyatta that will make them an enemy for them to vote for Ruto. Therefore, the President has a tall order and he will only manage to get 15 per cent, considering most of his promises and key programmes are not working,” Dr Muluka added.

Furthermore, Muluka opines that Mudavadi and Wetangula cannot help the struggling Head of State as it is too late for Ruto to redeem himself.  He, however, argued that Ruto should go back to the Central region to seek forgiveness for betraying the region or, if not, he should prepare for an exit path.

ALSO READ: Ruto shifts focus to Western and gives restless Mt Kenya wide berth

“I don’t think he will manage to get the 90 per cent he got in Central if he banks on Mudavadi and Wetangula to deliver the votes. The President should just seek forgiveness from the people of Central for failing them and being untrustworthy to see if he can pick from where he left off. But if it is impossible, then he should prepare for his exit because Kenyans know who to vote against,” said Muluka.

Western leaders across the region, however, emphasized the need for development projects as a basis for electoral support for Ruto’s re-election bid.

Sirisia MP John Waluke urged residents to register as voters in huge numbers to match other regions with large voting blocs.

“Take a message back home for everyone to get national identification cards and register as voters. In 2027, we will vote, and people from Mt Kenya will not believe it,” Waluke said.

Teso South MP Mary Emase highlighted the current government’s impact in the region, saying this will be a factor in determining support in 2027. 

“Things have changed, my people, and we should put all our votes in the basket for our dear President,” she declared during the launch of Bumula Market.