What happens after USAID closure in Kenya? Experts weigh in

The recent dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) by the Donald Trump administration is expected to have far-reaching consequences for African nations, particularly Kenya.

Local economic experts now warn that the abrupt decision will severely impact the global aid sector.

“Without USAID, we are facing dire circumstances. Within weeks, we will see deaths, drug shortages, suspension of crucial services, budget cuts, and mass layoffs. The economy will be significantly affected,” said an economist who requested anonymity due to his consultancy work with USAID in Nairobi.

However, economic analyst Martin Kisuu offered a different perspective, arguing that USAID’s operations will not come to an immediate halt.

“USAID does not operate in isolation. It has contracts with local partners in Kenya, and the Trump administration understands this. Abruptly ending or freezing these agreements would have serious implications…this is an international body,” opined Kisuu.

He believes the US is more likely to restructure the agency rather than shutting it down entirely.

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“In my view, this is a temporary freeze. USAID may return with budget cuts, but not a full closure,” he told The Standard by phone.

USAID, known for its humanitarian programs under the banner “From the American People,” has been instrumental in addressing Female Genital Mutilation (FGM), Gender-Based Violence (GBV), food security, and women’s empowerment.

“We were in the middle of a workshop on femicide cases in Nakuru County when it was suddenly halted. Who loses? Who benefits?” wondered Wanjiru Mumbi, an activist.

Impact on refugees in Kenya.

In partnership with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), USAID has played a critical role in supporting Kenya’s refugee camps—Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei—home to hundreds of thousands of refugees, mainly from Somalia and South Sudan.

Mohammed Hutle Bull, chairperson of the Chiefs in Garissa County, voiced concerns about the future of more than 800,000 refugees in Dadaab.

“The news sent shockwaves through the camps. USAID is Dadaab, and Dadaab is USAID. Who will oversee vaccinations, food distribution, medical aid, and feeding programs?

These are vulnerable people. I have seen firsthand how this aid combats malnutrition and supports maternal and child healthcare. Who will step in now?” he posed.

According to USAID’s website, its Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance works with the UN World Food Program (WFP) to provide direct food aid, cash transfers, and vouchers for refugees and vulnerable host communities.

The agency also funds the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has saved millions of lives by providing antiretroviral drugs (ARVs).

Recent data shows that nearly 1.5 million Kenyans living with HIV rely on these medications.

Through PEPFAR, the U.S. government has invested more than $110 billion in the global HIV/AIDS response—the largest commitment by any country to combat a single disease.

Beyond humanitarian aid, USAID has supported Kenya’s education system, agriculture, livestock farming, disaster relief, and security programs.

The sudden suspension of USAID and withdrawal of foreign aid now raises urgent questions about the future of these vital projects—and the lives they sustain.