Will Gachagua's ouster return to haunt Ruto?

Following the messy divorce between President William Ruto and his former Deputy Rigathi Gachagua that has degenerated into a war of words, questions linger whether the impeachment is among many choices that will return to haunt Ruto.

Since he took office, President Ruto has made a number of political and policy decisions that have angered the people. Some of these decisions include the infamous Finance Bill 2024 that he was forced to withdraw following Gen Z protests.

At the height of the protests, the President maintained that the Finance Bill was good for the development of the country but he was forced to eat his words after the protests escalated.

Other major policy interventions that the President had initiated only vehemently opposed by Kenyans and stakeholders include the new university funding model and the Housing Levy, privatization of 11 parastatals, Maisha Namba, the appointment of Cabinet Administrative Secretaries and the Shakahola commission that the court blocked.

The Social Health Authority (SHA) that the President has insisted will transform the health sector and incorporate the rich and the poor has also earned him criticism with Kenyans rallying behind a retired nurse, Grace Mulei who was arrested for allegedly storming Afya House to demand answers from the Ministry officials.

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With Ruto’s ‘unpopular policies’ the situation has been exacerbated by other key factors including police brutality, abductions, runaway joblessness, disappearances and the killings of youth that have worsened under the Kenya Kwanza government.

Gachagua’s recent outbursts against his former boss has turned him a nightmare with political experts and elected leaders pointing out that the he would have been ‘managed from within’ than outside, as there was nothing to lose. Gachagua is now using every opportunity to embarrass  Ruto’s administration.

While some of the government apologists have admitted albeit in low tones that they had not foreseen Gachagua’s influence after his impeachment, others led by his successor Prof Kithure Kindiki remain bullish that his popularity will die slowly and gradually.

“The time is coming when the exam of all that we said we will do will be set and we will be required to answer and sit for the exam. Those making noise are even helping us to work harder. We know there is an exam. The health programme is part of the issue; we are trying to stabilise it. We will have more people insured medically and accessing better packages in the long run than we used to have with NHIF,” he told a delegation from Mt Kenya region that had toured his official residence last week.

However, a section of MPs maintain that Gachagua was venting for being hounded out of office and maintained that his noise will fade off even as they remained optimistic that the President will redeem his image in Mt Kenya region.

Leaders led by Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, Nominated MP Wilson Sossion, and Mbeere North MP Geoffrey Ruuku believe there was still time to rally the region behind the Head of State.

“The scathing attacks from Gachagua are expected. He is bitter, and it’s natural. Let him vent.  The fact is the president is in office courtesy of the people of Kenya and the commitment he made to them. He should not bend to every whim of the people. The president should focus on his agenda. The indicators are that the government is working and no amount of attacks can refute that,” Sossion said.

Kiunjuri said: “We will oppose attempts by Gachagua to isolate the region for his political benefit. He is not giving solutions to the issues afflicting Kenyans, it is too early to claim that the Ruto administration has abandoned us? There is time to counter that narrative.”

But an MP from Mt Kenya region differed with the leaders saying, “we had thought and had been convinced that Gachagua had no popularity beyond Wamunyoro village in his Mathira backyard. The Gachagua we have is stronger and more influential than the Gachagua who was the Deputy President.”

Kangema MP Peter Kihungi who has been Gachagua’s ally but recently shifted to Kindiki's camp and was at his Karen residence has called for a truce between Ruto and Gachagua saying that their differences were putting the region in a restive mood.

Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu, a Gachagua’s ally said the impeachment motion remained part of President Ruto’s political miscalculations that alienated him from the people from across the country as it depicted him as intolerant and unforgiving.

“We had warned them that people did not support the impeachment, they went ahead and came up with cooked public participation results, they now must live with the aftermath of their misdeeds,” Nyutu said.

Albert Kasembeli, a communication expert and political analyst, warned that the former DP’s impeachment, just like some of the government policies, had significant implications for Ruto’s government in terms of stability and delivery.

“Gachagua, being a key ally and a critical vote-getter from central Kenya, helped solidify Ruto's support base. It is not in doubt his ousting has alienated voters in the vote rich region.  Gachagua was instrumental in helping to rally crucial votes in the region.  This puts Ruto’s bid for the second term in jeopardy. This has forced Ruto into serious political realignments to strive for the western Nyanza vote,” he said. 

According to Kasembeli, Gachagua's recent outbursts against President Ruto suggest rising tensions within the government, highlighting dissatisfaction with Ruto's leadership style, which Gachagua described as intolerant and dictatorial.

“This discord could undermine the stability of Ruto's administration, potentially leading to divisions among supporters and complicating governance. Gachagua's open criticism, especially of the President's inner circle, breaks traditional political protocols and raises concerns about political survival for both him and Ruto,” he said.

Dr Kamau Wairuri a policy analyst said as a result of the impeachment, Ruto had lost one huge block in Mt Kenya region and that he could not be sure that the group he is courting will end up being with him ‘or even if they do whether they will show up for him the way Mt Kenya showed up for him in 2027’.

“For Gachagua he lost the trappings of power, has limited access to state resources which means that his movement is impacted negatively but he then gets a lot of political mileage since he has received high status in the society despite losing his seat. He has a solid vote bloc that he has galvanized around him with political power which he is milking due to the feeling of political neglect and betrayal,” he said.

However, Javas Bigambo, another analyst noted that the policy interventions and Gachagua’s impeachment provided a critical learning point to the President even as he opined that the two issues were not related to each other.

“Education funding model and the SHA should be considered by the President as critical learning points especially the realization that policy formulation should not be given the political urgency but a comprehensive stakeholder engagement but on Gachagua, he had turned himself around like a political ogre and sought to outshine his boss. The President had erred in making him his Deputy but also did not have a complete plan of ‘finishing his rival politically that that is where the problem is,” Bigambo noted.

“Ruto and the government perhaps assumed they would destroy Gachagua after successful impeachment but they did not kill the snake with its egg like keeping him busy in court. If he is allowed to continue he will pose a political threat to the President,” he added.