Wetang'ula dilemma: Give up Ford-K party or Speaker's perks?

Amani National Congress’ (ANC) earthquake seems to have lost its force, with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi strategically removed from the political equation in Western Kenya as part of the 2027 political landscape.

With ANC out of the way, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula now finds himself in the crosshairs of President William Ruto, as he stands in the way of the President’s dominance of the Western block.

Wetang’ula, who has resisted merging his Ford Kenya party with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), has attracted the ire of the ruling coalition, which has already absorbed Mudavadi’s ANC, a party that had been in existence for over a decade.

The push to dislodge Wetang’ula from his perch has intensified, both inside and outside Parliament, following a ruling by a three-judge bench which found that he violated the Constitution by failing to step down as Ford Kenya leader before assuming the role of Speaker.

The Standard has learnt that there are behind-the-scenes efforts by UDA to pressure Wetang’ula into following Mudavadi’s example and folding his party. The plan is to consolidate into one formidable party that will back Ruto’s re-election the 2027.

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The court ruling has sparked debate about Wetang’ula’s suitability as Speaker of the National Assembly, aligning with the ambitions of a faction within Azimio La Umoja that is pushing for one of their own to assume the position, in the spirit of a broad-based government.

These developments bring to mind the political machinations that led to Wetang’ula’s removal as Senate Minority Leader in the second Senate during the “Handshake era” of then-President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga.

In March 2018, Wetang’ula was replaced by the then-Siaya Senator James Orengo, prompting Wetang’ula to threaten a “messy and noisy divorce” from the opposition coalition, NASA.

On Tuesday, UDA national vice-chairperson Kevin Lunani confirmed the party’s efforts to unite with other political formations. He responded to The Standard’s inquiry about UDA’s merger efforts, stating that they were rallying other leaders to follow their lead in uniting the country.

Azimio, on the other hand, argues that the court ruling disqualified Wetang’ula from holding the Speaker’s position, as it found him to have violated the Constitution.

Minority Whip Millie Odhiambo on Tuesday asked Wetang’ula to resign, citing the court’s ruling that also overturned his ruling that Kenya Kwanza was the majority coalition.

However, Wetang’ula rejected the calls for his resignation, arguing that no substantive motion had been brought before the House to warrant his stepping down.

“I have read the judgment thoroughly, and nowhere does it cast aspersions on the Speaker,” he said.

Already, threats to dislodge Wetang’ula have been voiced. Starehe MP Amos Mwago called for his resignation or face dismissal, arguing that Wetang’ula had failed in his leadership of the House and was responsible for some of the public unrest, including the nationwide strikes triggered by the 2024 Finance Bill.

In response to the High Court ruling, Ford Kenya has turned to the courts to protect Wetang’ula’s position as Speaker. Ford Kenya’s Secretary-General, John Chikati, confirmed that the party had filed an appeal against the ruling.

“What the judges attempted to do was to rewrite Articles 106 and 108 of the Constitution,” said Chikati.

On the issue of party dissolution, Chikati insisted that Ford Kenya would not fold, saying the party belongs to the people of Kenya.

“If anyone thinks they can use the courts to force us to dissolve the party, they are daydreaming,” he said.

Chikati said that following the dissolution of ANC, its members were keen to join Ford Kenya, which had boosted the party’s membership.

“We have intensified our membership drive. By 2027, we hope our ranks will be full, and we will compete based on numbers. We are ready to contest for the leadership of this country,” he added.

Political analysts suggest that Wetang’ula’s current challenges may be part of a calculated political move to eliminate his party, placing him in a difficult position. He needs his parliamentary position to exert influence, but his party is also crucial as a bargaining chip.

“If he steps down as party leader, he will be at President Ruto’s mercy, making a political miscalculation akin to Mudavadi’s. If he resigns as Speaker, he loses access to the trappings of power, which would hinder his ability to consolidate resources for future political ambitions,” said Dr Kamau Wairuri, a political analyst and policy researcher.

The ANC’s dissolution last Friday was seen as part of a broader strategy linked to succession politics, with claims of a political pact between Mudavadi and President Ruto to support Ruto’s 2032 presidential bid. This only adds to the complications surrounding Wetang’ula’s political future.