Speculation after Raila AUC loss on whether he'll join Ruto or lead ODM

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga made a quiet comeback from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia yesterday morning, marking an end to a grueling journey in his quest to represent Kenya on a continental scale the political scene is warming up to new developments.

Raila has not been engaged in local politics since August last year, when he announced to country that he would focus on his continental campaign and went full throttle landing in atleast 20 capitals on the continent.

On Saturday evening, votes were cast and the verdict was out - Raila had lost the race to be the next African Union Commission (AUC). Attention has now shifted on his possible next course of action.

Opinion is divided, even as political analysts and politicians alike give scenarios on the path Raila should possibly take, including whether he will now work with President William Ruto in the Kenya Kwanza Government or lead the anti- Ruto push.

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Some have anticipated that he may return to active politics, specifically back to the helm of his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, that he handed over on an acting capacity.

Others have stated the need to implement National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report to create the position of Prime Minister and allow him serve in that capacity - while some have urged him to take an active role in the opposition.

After conceding, Raila said his plan is to come back home because there are still many things for him to do, but did not expressly say his intentions in coming days.

“My plan is that I will go back home, I have so many things to do. When you go for a contest, there cannot be two outcomes. You can win or lose so this is one of them so I’m not bitter. I’m very happy and still available to offer services to the continent in any other capacities,” he said as he conceded defeat on Saturday.

“I offered myself as a candidate and for the last few months I have been running round the continent talking to leadership, canvassing for their votes. Today (Saturday) they have expressed themselves and as it is now we did not succeed,” Raila added.

A majority of Kenyans have described him as master of politics, with a wealth of experience, which cannot just be wished away.

A section of politicians, including Wiper Party leader, Kalonzo Musyoka have already signaled intention to work with him in what he described as liberating the country.

“Raila is going to look for the African Union seat and I’m telling him to go but if things don’t go well, he should come back so that we liberate Kenya,” Kalonzo said.

Former Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua issued a somewhat subtle message to Raila after his loss, as he commended him for putting up a brave fight, elicited energy, resilience, and the indefatigable Lion of Africa.

“The leap you made motifs the Kenyan optimism and great hope in the continent and the world. In any case, the outcome at the AU doesn't, in any way, undermine your leadership and your energy to fix our nation. Welcome back home, our son Raila, with your head held high; East or West, home is the best. Take heart, you did Kenya proud,” he said on Sunday.

Nandi Senator, Samson Cherargei said Raila’s brilliant leadership and experience should not be allowed to go to waste.

“We must now fully implement the NADCO report by amending the constitution 2010 through creating the office of the Prime Minister and allow Raila to serve Kenyans in that capacity.” said Cherargei yesterday.

Saboti Mp, Caleb Amisi said calls to have the position of Prime Minister would require a fully constituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

“Dear Kenya Kwanza, you now want a referendum to make Raila an executive PM, a referendum that you campaigned against during Tanga Tanga times. Fine let's have it, but you will need to constitute fully a new IEBC then use it to do the more than five by elections first. The results of the by-elections shall be your referendum results,” he said, on his online platform.

“This will be an objective simple, clear, specific, measurable, accurate, reliable and time bound results delivered in record time with less resources! Kenya needs a renaissance!” Amisi stated.

In October, Raila stepped aside for Kisumu Governor, Anyang’ Nyong’o to lead ODM in acting capacity as he fully immersed into AUC campaigns.

ODM is also expected to celebrate its twentieth anniversary this month since it was established.

Prof Gitile Naituli, a management and leadership expert, welcomed Raila back to the country saying it was a loss, not necessarily for him, but for Kenya.

In the event that Raila may want to be a presidential candidate, Prof Naituli said a majority of Kenyans would still support him.

Naituli also held that Raila may not continue working with the government because of his aspirations including being the face of a major political party that exist to win power.

He said Raila may get a lot of pressure from members of his party to position himself for 2027.

“Eventually he will have to agree to position in the party for election. The majority and minority question may be the beginning of parting ways with UDA because that was an attempt to undermine democracy, to buy those MP so that eventually Kenya Kwanza becomes the majority. It was wrong,” explained Naituli.

Last week, Githunguri Mp Gathoni Wamuchomba was on the receiving end by Kenyans following her remarks that Raila should retire if he loses the AUC elections.

“If he doesn’t get it, he should just go retire in Bondo. We’ll get him a good retirement package as an ex-Prime Minister but he shouldn’t come back to get into the ballot for presidential campaigns," Wamuchomba said.

Homa Bay Town Mp, Peter Kaluma said that the AUC campaign should be converted into a political force to transform Kenya.

“A good strategist is one who transforms weaknesses into opportunities and threats into challenges. FORD was a movement converted into a political party, so was ODM,” he stated.