We need to stop instability in E Africa

An arc of instability surrounds Kenya; from DR Congo to Somalia. Remember your high school maths and how to draw an arc using a compass? I hope I am not awakening ghosts.

We can use Nairobi as the centre of the arc or Arusha, the headquarters of the East Africa Community (EAC). What makes this arc unique is its longevity, since the wind of change brought independence to Africa.

Congo has had instability since her uhuru. Sudan’s partition did not silence the guns. Ethiopia did not find peace with Eritrea going her way. Neither did Somalia despite Somaliland trying to break away. My last encounter with Somaliland was fascinating. It’s one of the few places one can get a visa to visit Taiwan!

What is the source of this arc’s instability? Can we stabilise the region?

One cause is minerals. DR Congo would probably be more peaceful without her mineral wealth. Lots of wars have been over oil, a critical resource in the modern world. Think of the Gulf wars, Biafra, Sudan, and more. 

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The new oil is rare earth metals used in mobile phones, electric cars, missiles, MRI and other critical industries. With the climatic change and shift to electric cars, these minerals could lead to as many wars as oil. And DR Congo has plenty of them.

The other cause of conflict is cultural. In DR Congo, different ethnic groups fight over land and control over minerals. The fact that ethnic groups live across borders makes the conflicts more portent and last longer.

Ethiopia has no strategic minerals but ethnic differences flare. Think of Amhara, Oromo and Tigray. Grudges over which ethnic group has held power in the past widen ethnic fissures.

In Somalia, they seek differences in clans. You can’t miss differences if you look for them. Remember the Rwanda genocide? In the Balkans, the Croats, Serbs, and other ethnic groups speak the same language, but still look for differences, often digging into history for them.

In Sudan, the differences between Arabs and black Africans simmered for years. Arabisation made matters worse.  After partition, we suddenly realised that beneath the Arabs- black African line, there were different tribes in South Sudan with grudges.

One of the paradoxes is why these tribal or racial differences rarely erupt in foreign lands; for instance, in the USA or Europe. Yet we have lots of immigrants from different nationalities and tribes. Could this be explained by the fragility of our institutions including the governments in Africa?

Religion is another silent factor. Not so much in Congo, but in Sudan, the racial divide between north and south is amplified by religion. We note the religious factor conflicts in the Balkans, Ireland, Middle East, and closer home in Nigeria. In Ethiopia, religion is a hidden factor going by some of the sacred sites destroyed in conflicts.

Colonial legacy can’t be dismissed. In DR Congo, the Belgians ran the country like a fiefdom. They failed to build institutions that could have safeguarded the country after their independence. How did the joint Egypt-British rule affect the future of Sudan?

Why should Ethiopia be having instability with no legacy of colonialism? This is clear evidence the roots of instability in this arc are more than colonialism. What of Somalia and short-lived British and Italian colonialism? They seem to have failed to tame the freedom and independent-minded Somalis, leading to the current ‘chaos’.

What of external influence?

Long after uhuru, the former colonial powers kept their links to African countries. They silently and indirectly controlled the thought process and the economies. Who buys critical minerals in DR Congo? Where do the arms come from? What of Sudan, with her porous borders across the Red Sea and unstable Libya? What of Ethiopia and Somalia? Who are the key and peripheral players in these conflicts?

Was this arc more stable during the Cold War? Is it now a theatre of proxy wars? A good hint; who are the key players in the peace negotiations?

We can’t rule out the fact that many leaders believe the only way to project power is to punish others, at times violently. Violent leaders feel inadequate or inferior. Bullies are usually cowards.

What is sad about instability is that it creates a virtuous cycle stunting economic growth. The resulting poverty makes citizens more willing to take risks to ‘cross’ to the other side. The same poverty and desperation leads to robbers, and other vices.

In developed countries, welfare money (like stipends for our elderly) ensures citizens never get to that stage. But citizens pay taxes, and there is a surplus for welfare with minimal corruption or nepotism.

Enough lamentation. Any solutions?

We thought regional integration would make the arc more stable, just like it did in Europe after the EU. Admitting DR Congo, South Sudan, and Somalia should lead to more stability through trade, movement of labour and sharing of resources. Why should there be violence in DR Congo, a member of the EAC? Does this instability show integration is still work in progress?

What more control over our resources just like Emirates controls their oil or Australia her minerals? After all, every country found itself where it is and has all the rights to the mineral wealth.

Some have argued that external forces should help stabilise the region for economic takeoff just like South Korea, Germany, and Japan after WWII. Why can’t we try that in Africa?

The stabilisation shall include better education, improvements in agriculture, health and governance; more importantly building institutions. Who will contribute the money? What of the dividends?

If democracy flourishes, there will be equity, equality, and most importantly political and economic renewal.