Three factors that led to Raila's loss in the AUC chairmanship contest

There are many times when Kenya plays high geopolitical stakes, wins some and loses others. In the aftermath of defeat, blame shifting appears to prevail as it happened when Kenya failed to clinch the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. It was not the first time that Kenya had sought that post but it was the first time it approached the issue as if it was domestic political campaigns.

The strategists, with much hallabaloo, overwhelmed themselves with expressions that displayed poorly anchored over confidence. Its effect was to psyche the public to believe the Kenyan candidate was winning. Besides chest-thumping, they made claims of having secured support across the continent, often after high-level photo-ops. Since the reality on the ground was different, the loss was surprising to many Kenyans. It should not have been.

The election itself was secret ballot, involving leaders who each had three critical interests to consider while casting the ballot. First was the self-interest of survival as the accepted leader of his country. Second was the perception of one's country’s national interests to be enhanced or protected. Third was the leader’s perception of what the continental interests to be protected and enhanced were. Having considered the three critical interests, each leader then considered the candidates as they were likely to affect each of the three interests. To Kenyans, their candidate, Raila Odinga, looked solid but this was self-deception PR. The campaign fell short due to three critical factors.

These factors were what each leader’s relations with President William Ruto, what each thought of Kenya as country in the context of the African continent, and what each voter knew of Raila as person. Ruto works hard to appear to lead other African leaders, would like to be well thought of in Western circles, and is seemingly intellectually handicapped by his lack of exposure to, and failure to appreciate, the ‘Humanities’. He, as result, makes questionable statements that contradict African Union positions on Western Sahara and on Palestine, thereby making other leaders to wonder about him. He takes pride in being associated with Frenchman Emmanuel Macron, Britain’s King Charles III, and Joe Biden of the United States. He goofed when he announced that he had consulted Macron on the crisis in Eastern Congo, rather than his fellow African leaders, and that Macron had endorsed his thoughts. Southern African Development Community (SADC) seemingly reacted by announcing that it had its candidate to support. The impression created was that other leaders could not trust Ruto and his candidate to support continental interests and that he might be a proxy for extra-continental forces in Africa. All this made the Ruto factor negative.

Then came the factor of Kenya as a country, how the others see it. With the world media giants in Africa headquartered in Nairobi, negative government behaviour damages Kenya’s reputation everywhere. It acquired a battered image in which foreigners and citizens were not safe due to abductions, Kenya successfully competing for corruption championship, and seemingly having surrendered sovereignty to extra-continental forces. Kenya’s image, as a country, was therefore not good to most African leaders.

Then there was the Raila factor or his past record. Those who know him as reformer and progressive were seemingly 15 and stood with him throughout. There were those who had serious reservations, about 26, or were wavering, about seven. The reservations and wavering were because some know him as coup maker, creator of ungovernability, and one who likes praises from the West. Worried about Raila fomenting coups with extra-continental help, many sought self-preservation by voting him down. Those who worried about him threatening national and continental interests by succumbing to extra-continental forces also avoided him.

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The three factors of Ruto, Kenya, and Raila failed to appeal to each leader’s three interests. Given the preceding bragging about “Addis Ya Baba”, the loss hurt although it was expected. It was fiasco.