How 'fear of democracy' cost Raila AUC seat

The recent loss of Azimio leader Raila Odinga in his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship has sparked huge debate with some attributing his failure to Kenya’s foreign policy and President William Ruto’s conduct on the global scene.

However, a deeper analysis reveals that it was indeed Africa’s “fear of democracy,” continental power dynamics, and a phobia-driven alliance of smaller nations that formed an impenetrable wall against Kenya’s candidature.

Africa remains a continent skeptical of “too much democracy.”

Raila’s lifelong identity as a pro-democracy crusader does not sit well with many African leaders. His association with electoral transparency, governance reforms and empowerment of opposition movements made him an uncomfortable choice for heads of state, who have clung to power for decades.

Many African leaders, some of whom have stayed in office through constitutional manipulations and authoritarian rule, viewed Raila as a potential threat. The last thing they wanted was an AUC chair who might push for reforms that could undermine their grip on power.

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Kenya’s regional strength and status as an East African powerhouse became a “liability” that worked against Raila. The long-standing history of stability in a continent beset with conflicts coupled with the growing influence in trade, diplomacy, and security affairs has made Kenya both respected and resented in equal measure.

Many African nations, especially those in competing regional blocs, were reluctant to support Raila, fearing this would further cement Nairobi’s dominance in continental affairs.

Unlike previous AUC chairpersons from less assertive nations, a Kenyan-led commission would have been more influential in continental direction setting, making Raila an unattractive option for leaders who prioritised their own influence over collective progress.

Africa’s smaller nations have always expressed unspoken dislike against powerhouse nations. The Japanese say: “The failures of the high and the mighty tastes like honey to the underdogs.”

The French speak of “Joie Maligne,” a diabolical delight in other people’s misfortune. The English uses the term “schadenfreude” to describe the hidden pleasure some people derive from witnessing the failures, pain, or humiliation of others.

Kenya’s standing has not only evoked love and respect continentally but also some resentment especially from less-visible smaller nations. Notwithstanding the consensus, Raila is committed to advancing a more cohesive Africa where no nation would be left out, a whiff of schadenfreude was detectable in the AU Member States voting pattern.

Raila’s bid suffered from a schadenfreude-driven coalition of continental underdogs as nearly all smaller countries with weaker diplomatic footprints banded together to block his path to victory. President Ruto’s interventions were monumental, yet insufficient.

Amid the swirling currents, President Ruto’s efforts to navigate the labyrinth of formidable challenges to rally support for Raila were nothing short of valiant. He led Kenya in mounting the most vigorous diplomatic campaign in Kenya’s history. He gave his whole to bridge every divide across the length and breadth of Africa, assuage all fears, lobby every head of state, and his best to temper the anxieties surrounding Kenya’s expanding influence.

Undoubtedly, the President’s quintessential maneuverings and persuasive diplomacy helped secure a historic support for Kenya’s candidacy, pointing to the potential for geopolitical realigning and alliance-building. But the challenges proved insurmountable, and his efforts fell short of tilting the scales in Raila’s favour, further highlighting the limits of even the most skillful diplomacy in the face of systemic barriers and biases rooted in continental politics.

-The writer is Marsabit County Chief Officer