Don't take Kenyans back to 2007 zero-sum politics ahead of 2027

Kenya’s high octane political campaigns are on. That they are premature is not a big issue. That is our style. The big issue is the nation must be careful not to return to the future.

ODM’s Raila Odinga and President William Ruto, and indeed former DP, Rigathi Gachagua, especially need to guard against driving the country back to the 2007/2008 drama from hell.  

Twenty years is a long time. Memory fades away. People surrender to natural attrition. Some die. Others are born. They know nothing of what happened, except what they have heard.

Accounts are told from slanted perspectives. Some people inanely yearn for a repeat of the past. Others want their own experience of similar dramas.  

The 2027 elections will come two decades after the activities that took Kenya to the Hague. There will be a lot of fresh youthful energy that was not yet born. Many of the voters will be aged 18 to 35.

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Majority are not able to remember the jarring trauma their country went through in that tragic season. But our leaders, President Ruto, Raila, Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang’ula, and Gachagua, remember. Or, at least, they ought to remember.  

After a hiatus of sorts in local politics, Raila is back on the hustings. He has returned with remarkable energy, after the Addis Ababa debacle of February 15th. He literally flew into the waiting arms of President Ruto. We may not know what was discussed. But, the jolly camera work showed chummy individuals. Raila then set off on a flurry mission, “to consult widely on the next move.”

President Ruto, meanwhile, continued with his whirlwind marketing of his “broad-based government.” In the next few days, they will lift the lid on their joint political future. Hopefully, it will not be a future that fans ethnic tensions.  Since the Gen-Z uprisings of last June, President Ruto’s pet subject has been what he calls “uniting Kenyans through a broad-based government.” By this he means embedding the Opposition in government, and silencing them in the process.

Bid to cage Raila

The first steps were, of course, taken in July-August, through inclusion of ODM luminaries in the Cabinet. UDA and ODM supremos now seek to formalise this tango. This wish will be legitimised through an announcement next week. It will be reported that this is what Kenyans have told Raila Odinga. 

Ruto’s effort to cage Raila and ODM has largely paid off. The Orange team’s cuddling with the Kenya Kwanza government is proving sweet. It has turned ODM human sirens into the proverbial outsiders who weep louder than the bereaved. The magnitude of their zeal embarrasses even those whom they found in Kenya Kwanza. There is even some degree of consternation. The sirens cannot wait for Raila’s announcement  next week. They will then zoom off, to proclaim the good news. 

Meanwhile, insiders say Raila is Ruto’s living hell. He had hoped to keep him away through the failed AU assignment. Now that Raila is back, he must be contained.

Insiders in both Kenya Kwanza and ODM say the roadmap was reached even before the August 15th fiasco. First, forays across the country “to consult widely.” After that, the NADCO Report will be pulled up from the shelves. It will be dusted and blended with elements of the BBI Report that the courts threw out.

Willy-nilly, the National Executive will be expanded. It must accommodate ODM big wigs while also retaining Kenya Kwanza regional kingpins.

But there is another angle to this drama – even a sinister angle. There is an effort to recreate the 2007 ODM team. It comes with the ethnic agenda of that year. Barring the Ford-K inclusion in the Ruto-Odinga-Musalia axis, the partnerships that led to the clarion call of 41 against one are back. So, too, are veiled accusations against top Mt Kenya politicos as “tribalists.” And ex-DP Gachagua plays into their hands by flexing his own ethnic muscles. 

Where Mathioya MP, Joseph Kamotho, starred in the 41 versus one formation in 2007, there is Kikuyu MP, Kimani Ichung’wa. He fires from the hip against political chieftains from his own region, just like Kamotho did.

The rest of the major stars are exactly where they were in 2007, ahead of the 2008 catastrophe. Their message is the same as it was then. They preached unity, while also isolating one region. They have the same script.

The 2007 season ended up before the ICC, following tragic fires, murders, forced migrations, and other things that have been called crimes against humanity. We don’t have to return there.

-Dr Muluka is a strategic communications adviser