With Raila by his side, the next election is Ruto's to lose

The Kenya Union of Savings and Credit Cooperatives scandal continues to fuel a slow burn. Perhaps the muted response, especially from officialdom, stems from the fact that the extent of malfeasance is yet to be fully revealed.

Billions are alleged to have been lost through theft at the umbrella body for saccos. It is quite probable that many prominent Kenyans, including a section of the political elite without whose connivance the scam would not have been possible, may be implicated in the days to come.

Still, political realignments continue to take shape. As the saying goes, in politics, “there are no permanent friends, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests.” Erstwhile friends have become bitter foes as sworn enemies set aside their differences for a common cause. There are two distinct formations; for and against President William Ruto and his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua.

Mr Gachagua, Kenya’s second DP was impeached by Parliament. Unless the impeachment is overturned, it is unlikely that he will be a presidential contender in 2027. Gachagua blames Ruto for his impeachment. Yet the reason for his animus goes beyond the prima facie resolutions of the august House. The President’s close friends and confidants allege that Gachagua was a benefactor of the Gen Z uprising that threatened to upend the Kenya Kwanza administration. Environment Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale has publicly claimed as much on national television.

Gachagua commands a huge section of the populous Mount Kenya. Even as DP, he complained about their exclusion from the government when in reality, they held more public positions than any other ethnic group in Kenya. It is now the same ethnic constituency that he holds in his thrall as he seeks other alliances.

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Martha Karua, former running mate of Raila Odinga, is now an ally of the former DP. She did not fare well in the last elections even in her own home county. It remains to be seen what value she brings to Gachagua’s table.

Gachagua has made overtures to Kalonzo Musyoka, the Kamba nation’s de facto leader. Mr Kalonzo, a long-standing MP and former Vice President (VP), passes himself off as a conviction politician. Yet his stand is constantly repudiated by his post election alliances. In 2007, after campaigning against Mwai Kibaki, he accepted to be his VP, an action that gave Kenya’s third president legitimacy.

In the last elections, he abandoned his presidential bid and supported Raila Odinga even after vociferously declaring he would be “stupid” to do so.

Prevarication on issues of national importance is Musyoka’s Achilles heel. It has earned him the pejorative “water melon” moniker.  Further, he has led his community in a long stint of exclusion from the government which may be wearying to some of his staunchest supporters. There is rising dissent from his backyard if recent anecdotal evidence is to be believed.

President Ruto and Raila’s rapprochement has certainly cooled the country’s political temperature. Only Odinga has the requisite gravitas to marshal the entire country against a cause with nothing more that his sheer strength of personality. With luminaries from the former PM's party now in the government, the next presidential election is Ruto’s to lose.

Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst