Kenyans can no longer bank on Raila to take them to 'Canaan'

Albert Einstein once said: "No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it". So, we ask ourselves: Does Raila Odinga's consciousness still hold hope in solving Kenya’s leadership problems? I don’t think so, and here is why.

Raila has been central in shaping and perpetuating Kenya's political problems for the past four decades. Many Kenyans believed that if he were to become president, he would solve these issues and lead the country to its envisioned political 'Canaan.' It hasn’t happened and is not likely to happen at all.

Therefore, it is time for the nation to move beyond relying on Raila to deliver the 'Canaan' he has long promised—if such a place ever truly existed.

The country must realise that even the biblical Moses did not set his foot on the land of milk and honey that he envisioned for the children of Israel when he led them out of Egypt—and so it will be with Raila. He will remain as many political pundits have described it; the president Kenya never had.

Therefore, the pact between Raila and Ruto a week ago did not surprise many people. To those outside his circle, Raila is highly predictable but to those who sit in his circle, he is unpredictable.

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To describe Raila’s political trajectory, one must be outside his circle—those who want to understand Raila must be in his opposition. Those who want to understand his opposition must be in his inner circle.

Since 1997, Raila's political journey has followed a recurring pattern: Losing an election, leading his followers in revolting against the government, and eventually forming a pact with the ruling regime.

This played out with Kibaki in 2008, Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017, and most recently with William Ruto—marking his record reconciliation with a president.

Notably, he forged pacts, popularly called handshakes, with the other heads of state during their final terms or twilight years in office. For example, he aligned with Kanu during Moi's final months as president and struck agreements with Kibaki and Uhuru during their last terms.

Ironically, despite opposing political handshakes with Raila during the 2022 presidential campaigns, Dr Ruto is the first head of state who has embraced Raila swiftly. 

Two factors explain Ruto’s decision. First, Raila is nearing the end of his political career, and Ruto aims to win over Raila’s supporters for his 2027 re-election bid. Second, Ruto is wary of losing support from the Mount Kenya region in 2027. Thus, he has strategically set a part of his government and wants to rent it to Baba.

However, by bringing Raila into his fold, Ruto faces significant challenges in 2027: Backlash from Kenyans dissatisfied with his governance, criticism from those who dislike Raila, and opposition from Raila’s supporters who resent Ruto.

What does the future hold for Kenya which has long relied on Raila? The outlook seems bleak. Let me illustrate with a relatable story.

Recently, parents across the country criticised a renowned socialite. They accused her of 'behaving badly' and being a poor role model for young girls and women. In response, the socialite asked, "Who told you I wanted to be a role model for your children? Every parent must be a role model to their own children." 

Similarly, many Kenyans have blamed Raila for allegedly betraying them by joining Ruto’s government, which they perceive as oppressive. They argue that Raila should hold the government accountable on their behalf.

But the question remains: Who told Kenyans that Raila is still interested in solving their political problems or becoming their president? Just as the socialite reminded parents of their responsibility, Raila could just as quickly tell Kenyans, "Every Kenyan has the responsibility to take themselves to their own Canaan."

Isn’t it time the country decided to look elsewhere for the solution to their political quagmires?

Dr Ndonye is a senior lecturer at Kabarak University’s Department of Mass Communication