Ivory Coast opposition weighs next move ahead of presidential vote

Ivory Coast's opposition is weighing its options after four of its top figures were excluded from the October 25 presidential race.

Tidjane Thiam, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI), was removed from the electoral roll in April after a court questioned his Ivorian nationality.

Former president Laurent Gbagbo, his former ally Charles Ble Goude and exiled ex-prime minister Guillaume Soro were also ruled out over past convictions.

None of the four can run or vote.

Can the disqualified candidates be reinstated?

Reinstatement hinges on revising the electoral roll before an August 26 deadline which has been ruled out by electoral commission head Ibrahime Kuibiert Coulibaly, who cited time constraints.

Gbagbo, Ble Goude and Soro would also need an amnesty law or presidential pardon to wipe their records.

"In the current context, nothing indicates we are heading towards such a decision," William Assanvo, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told AFP.

 Do Thiam and Gbagbo have a plan B?

The option of a surrogate candidate -- as seen in Senegal when opposition firebrand Ousmane Sonko endorsed Bassirou Diomaye Faye in the presidential ballot after he was barred from running himself -- is off the table for both the PDCI and Gbagbo's PPA-CI.

"Gbagbo never imagined such a scenario. He is part of the generation that blocks the political horizon of the youth in his party," said Francis Akindes, a political analyst at Bouake university.

"If we put forward someone else with a chance of winning, they too will be eliminated," a close associate of Thiam said.

The government insists it is not meddling in the electoral process and is merely implementing rulings from an independent judiciary.

The idea of rallying behind Jean-Louis Billon, a former trade minister and PDCI dissident who says he wants to represent the party, is not under consideration.

 Is a boycott on the table?

With no alternative plan, talk of a boycott by the sidelined opposition parties is resurfacing.

"We will never again miss elections," Gbagbo said in August 2023.

Gbagbo on Thursday unveiled a civic movement called "Enough is Enough" aimed at rallying social demands and resisting a potential fourth term bid by President Alassane Ouattara.

On Saturday, he told supporters to be "ready for a fight". "At some point, we will have to flood all the streets of Abidjan."

Assanvo, from the ISS, said Gbagbo's PPA-CI has mobilisation capacity, but for Thiam's PDCI party, taking to the streets is not part of its "political culture".

"What's happening is playing out among a political elite that young people don't feel connected to," said Akindes.

A source close to Thiam said the results of an election without the PDCI or the PPA-CI will have "no legitimacy".

Can the opposition unite behind one candidate?

The PDCI and Ble Goude's Cojep party have joined a broader opposition group known as the Coalition for Peaceful Change (CAP-CI).

The coalition has two declared and eligible candidates -- former first lady Simone Gbagbo and ex-prime minister Pascal Affi N'Guessan.

For now, CAP-CI members are calling for political dialogue and electoral reforms and are avoiding committing to a single candidate.

Gbagbo's party, at odds with both his ex-wife and Ble Goude, remains outside the alliance.

"This coalition is not an electoral alliance, it's a coalition to demand a fair vote," Assanvo said.

"Will it change its nature? That seems unlikely."