Kenyans are angry, but their leaders have other things to worry about

Hours before last week's reorganisation of Kenya Kwanza’s troubled government, Luhya leaders, acutely aware of shifting political dynamics that could upset the status quo, sought assurance from Ruto that the National Assembly Speaker's position would remain their preserve.

Their desperation missed the fact that Ruto is increasingly becoming a lame duck President in his first term. He is caught between fierce competing forces, all critical to his re-election bid in 2027 and whatever concerns him immediately is his survival, not that of Moses Wetang'ula or Musalia Mudavadi. 

Besides, there is a new sheriff in town whose plans threaten to pull the rug from under top leaders from Mulembe nation. He is responsible for the tremors in Kenya Kwanza that have formed the broad-based government. The earthquake proper is yet to come, but its destruction path is already mapped. If Sheriff Raila Odinga gets accommodated in government, which is the end game anyway, the PCS position will become obsolete, or his. 

Where will that leave Mudavadi, especially after he got rid of his political vehicle and bargaining power, the Amani National Congress, against good judgment? Wetang'ula is equally at a crossroads. First, ODM is circling, waiting for an opportunity to kick him out as the National Assembly Speaker following a court ruling that stripped Kenya Kwanza of the majority status in the assembly. The same court also directed Wetang'ula to choose between holding onto being the Ford-K party leader or being the Speaker because he cannot hold both. Something must give. 

An MoU that secured Wetang'ula and Mudavadi plum jobs in government can be trashed by Ruto if it becomes an impediment to his plans. The worst that can happen in that eventuality is a court case. Of course, Wetang'ula has a large political constituency that could make perfunctory noise should he be axed, but that is just about it. The same can't be said about Mudavadi. 

Ruto got very few votes in Vihiga while Bungoma delivered the highest in the entire western region. The reward for Bungoma in line with our political culture was the plum Health CS docket. It has since been taken away in a vortex of ineptitude.

Which is not to say the current Health CS Aden Duale is the magic wand we have all been waiting for. Doctors have objected to his appointment. Incoming PS, Dr Ouma Oluga, is a technocrat, a professional who plays by the rule book. On the other hand, Duale is a dyed-in-the-wool politician whose overriding concern is remaining on the right side of the appointing authority. The upheavals in the health sector could continue into the foreseeable future.