Conflict in eastern DRC provokes fears of regional war

The intensifying conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has provoked fears of a regional war.

Several of the DRC's nine neighbouring countries, as well as South Africa, already have a military presence on the ground.

For the last 30 years, successive conflicts in eastern DRC have turned the heart of the African Great Lakes region into a tinderbox ready to catch fire.

During the two biggest wars between 1996 and 2003, around 10 African states sent troops either to support Kinshasa or armed groups.

M23 and Rwandan forces 

Anti-governmental group the M23 (March 23 Movement), which has made a spectacular comeback since the end of 2021, comprises around 3,000 to 4,000 fighters, according to diplomatic sources.

However, security sources say the militants' training and weapons pale in comparison to Rwandan forces who are providing them with vital support on the ground and are known for their combat experience.

There are around 4,000 Rwandan soldiers in eastern DRC, according to the United Nations. They have access to modern equipment, such as GPS signal jammers, drones, aircraft stingers, and even laser-guided mortars.

In addition to the operations in eastern DRC, Rwanda is one of the primary suppliers of peacekeeping troops in Africa and has also deployed soldiers to fight a jihadist group in northern Mozambique.

Congolese army and militia 

The poorly trained FARDC (Congolese armed forces) are widely known to be undermined by corruption and poor level of training.

It is difficult to estimate their numbers, which are often exaggerated by generals seeking to embezzle the salaries of non-existent soldiers.

The high command is also undermined by disagreements between those loyal to President Félix Tshisekedi and those who prefer his predecessor Joseph Kabila.

At the end of January, the Congolese army suffered a serious setback when Goma, capital of North Kivu province, fell to the M23 and Rwandan soldiers despite Kinshasa having stationed its best troops and large quantities of heavy weapons in the city.

Troop morale has fallen, according to observers in the neighbouring province of South Kivu, where the conflict has shifted to in recent weeks.

Some units have perpetrated abuse of civilian populations, while others have refused to go to the frontlines, demanding the payment of their salaries.

Kinshasa has also gambled on the recruitment of local militia, nicknamed "wazalendo" or "patriots" in Swahili.

Poorly equipped and lacking in discipline, they have not been able to stem the advance of the M23.

Burundian troops 

Burundi has deployed around 10,000 soldiers in South Kivu, as well as around 2,500 militants to support Congolese forces, according to security sources.

The troops are considered lacking in combat skills but superior to the FARDC.

For several weeks, Burundian troops have been fighting alongside Congolese forces, exacerbating the diplomatic rift between Kigali and Bujumbura, who have both accused the other of stoking community tensions in a region marked by genocide in 1994.

Ugandan army 

The Ugandan People's Defence Force (UPDF) has been deployed since 2021 in the northern zones of North Kivu and Ituri province, at the boundary of the M23's area of activity.

Between 2,000 and 4,000 Ugandan soldiers have been deployed alongside the FARDC in a joint operation known as "Shujaa" against an Islamist group, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF).

But UN experts have highlighted the "active" support provided to the M23 by Ugandan spies, and analysts claim that Kampala is seeking to widen its influence in the region under the guise of the joint operation.

Since the M23's offensive in Goma, Kampala has sent hundreds of soldiers and heavy weapons, notably tanks, to provide reinforcement in eastern DRC, according to security sources.

South African forces 

Several thousand South African soldiers have been deployed in eastern DRC, where they are supporting the Congolese army.

While the contingents deployed to Goma are still stuck at their military bases, reinforcements have arrived by plane in the last few days from Pretoria at the airport in the city of Lubumbashi, in southeastern DRC, according to a security source.