Wanyonyi V Arop: Who will break Rudisha's world 800m record?

No soul under the sun can match with precision and class David Rudisha’s brilliance in 800m.

His feat seemed to have a heavenly touch. No one would have directed such a steady progression in the race –not even the prophets, but only God.

And ‘King’ David summoned his powers to stand out as the greatest 800m athlete of all time. His unrivalled achievements in the two-lap race clearly shows a steady evolution in the men’s 800m all-time mark in the last 15 years.

Rudisha was the first Kenyan to win the prestigious World Male Athlete of the Year award in 2010 and won a record three Kenyan consecutive track and field Athlete of the Year awards as he tied with the legendary American track star Carl Lewis.

Rudisha has the world 800m record (1:40.91); two-time Olympic gold medals and two World Championships gold as well as Africa and world junior crowns.

He was the first person to run under 1:41.00 for the event, and he holds the three fastest, six of the eight fastest, and 11 of the 20 fastest times ever run in this event.

Rudisha’s victory in the London Olympic Games in 2012 was the greatest moment of his career.

And his all-time mark remains unmatched for 13 years. Nobody expected him to break his own world record in a non-paced championship setting. Perhaps, it was only Timothy Kitum, whom Rudisha had told before the race: “Don’t follow me or you’ll die towards the end. Go for the silver.”

But a stiff rivalry among two top guns suggests the possibility of the record falling this season. Olympic champion Emmanuel Wanyonyi and Canada’s world champion Marco Arop –oozing a perfect combination of speed and tactical brilliance – have fired warning signals.

Like many other Kenyan world beating stars, Wanyonyi endured numerous childhood hardships.

The Olympic champion overcame exploitation as he did menial jobs –including herding cattle –to put food on the table for their family.

And this gave him the mental strength to withstand day-to-day life challenges.

READ: Rudisha remains the 800m world record holder

Wanyonyi made his intentions clear when he went two tenths of a second off Rudisha's world record at the World Athletics Diamond League meeting in Lausanne, Switzerland, last August. He equaled the 1:41.11 world record set by former Kenyan Wilson Kipketer of Denmark. 

With advancements in training techniques, competition spikes, and race pacing strategies –Wanyonyi’s latent talent and mental strength –Rudisha’s world record could fall this season.

Renato Canova, the veteran Italian athletics coach who has coached a number of top Kenyan athletes, said the new shoes can give the advantage of about one second. 

“There is a study that considers the advantage of about five to 10 per lap. At the pace speed of 1:40 (12.5 for every 100m), I think Wanyonyi can summon steps long enough of about 2.25m. When Rudisha set the world record of 1:40.91, he did 326 steps with an average length of 2.45m. This means that Wanyonyi uses about 350 steps. 

“If the new shoes result in the possibility to increase the length of every step of one centimetre only, with the same frequency, this means there is a possibility to gain about 3.5m,” he said.

Canova said wave lights may not give any advantage in 800m contests, “where the personal feeling is very much more important than an external conditioner of the pace.”

“We should remember Sebastian Coe ran 1:41.73 in 1981. I don't think there was real advancement in training at that time. This is something that is fundamental for longer distances.”

Canova pointed out that events from 400m to 1500m have over the years employed traditional training techniques, which significantly washed away aerobic training at high altitude.

For massive improvement in the timings in these races, Canova said, there is a need to return to old methods of training.

ALSO READ: Wanyonyi, Marco Arop renew rivalry in Kingston

“For an athlete to run 1:40, he needs to have fast splits. I think it is very difficult to find pacers able to run with even distribution of splits. Having 400m pacemakers, who are under pressure for fast pacing need to do the first 200m in 24 seconds with uneven distribution, which might not be good enough.

“For this reason, I think the best pacer can be the 800m runner of 1:45, who can maintain the 500m. At this point, an athlete like either Wanyonyi or Arop must hit the front since every record is built with a fast 200m between 400m and 600m.”  

Athletics analysts have always had varied views on the height of Wanyonyi and Arop.

But Canova downplays it. “There is a difference in height between Wanyonyi and Arop, but not in speed. Arop has a personal best in 400m of 46.10 seconds, having competed in the event a few times with the last time three years ago. I think Wanyonyi too can be at the same level.

“Arop has been aggressive. He loves front runs, and always has problems in the last 40m because his energy distribution doesn’t match his effort. But last year he started to be a little more prudent, and increased his final speed. Remember in the 800m, nobody is able to increase the speed in the last 100m.

“I think Wanyonyi is more resistant in the last 200m, looking at his training based on the increase of the level of aerobic power,” said Canova.

The Italian coach said front running in 800m can give an athlete an advantage.

“An athlete has the possibility to use an even pace at the speed he chooses. There is also the possibility to avoid getting tripped. Here, he has the leeway to mental concentration and the possibility to control the race.

“Talking about Wanyonyi and Arop, we must take into account that they use the same method and both are mentally equal,” he said.

In this mad-rush for Rudisha’s all-time mark, Algeria’s Djamel Sedjati can provide the surprise factor.

“Sedjati prefers to stay behind the pack up to the last 50m, and can be a third athlete able to direct the race in a different direction,” he added.

These three top stars –Wanyonyi, Arop and Sedjati –displayed unrivalled consistency last season.

ALSO READ: Wanyonyi faces Arop once again in Silesia Diamond League meet

Wanyonyi ran four times under 1:42. That is 1:41.11, 1:41.19, 1:41.58 and 1:41.70. He is the youngest (August 1, 2004) and probably the one with more room for improvement.

Arop ran three times under 1:42. That is 1:41.20, 1:41.72 and 1:41.86. He is 27 years old (May 20, 1998) but still has room of improvement in his running technique too.

Sedjati ran three times under 1:42. That is 1:41.46, 1:41.50 and 1:41.56. He was born on May 3, 1999 and has a fast sprint, and the ability to change pace with his short kicks that’s better than Wanyonyi and Arop.

Wilson Kipketer, who was born and bred in the village but later changed his nationality to Denmark, snatched gold medals in 1995, 1997 and 1999 World Championships.

He comes from Kabirirsang village. This is the birthplace of the late Henry Rono, the man who broke four world records (3,000m, 3,000m steeplechase, 5,000m and 10,000m) in just 81 days in 1978, 2007 world 800m champion Janeth Jepkosgei and Wilfred Bungei, the 2008 Olympic 800m champion.

Kipketer was undefeated for three consecutive years. He ran eight of the 17 current all-time fastest times. His best performance was a silver in Sydney (2000) and bronze in 2004 Athens. He still holds the indoor world record for the 800m.