Why the work is cut for the Opposition ahead of 2027

Kenya’s Opposition plot has thickened, with the unveiling of Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) on Thursday.

Gachagua is entering a political party minefield, both at home in the Mt. Kenya region and elsewhere in the country. The battle for soul Kenya is just about to begin. It promises to be titanic.  

Will Gachagua run for State House in 2027? The answer remains uncertain. He has repeatedly said that he does not have to run. His big goal is to send Ruto home in 2027. Anybody who can remove him will get his support, he says.

Accordingly, his first objective is to unite the Opposition against Ruto. Yet, his search for Opposition unity is itself a big conundrum.

For a start, this call has challenges right in the Mt. Kenya which boasts of a plethora of political parties.  For the unity call to make sense outside the Mountain, Mt. Kenya itself must hold together first. It is after such regional unity that engagement with the rest of the country begins making sense. The arrival of a new party by a towering regional giant of Gachagua’s stature is one more complication to the pre-existing effort to balance the equation. 

Almost every political titan in the region boasts of his or her own party. Some of the more notable of these are the Jubilee Party of President Uhuru Kenyatta and Jeremiah Kioni; PNU of former CS Peter Munya; Martha Karua’s people’s Liberation Party; Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party; Kiraitu Murungi’s Devolution Empowerment “Mbus” Party; Sisi Kwa Sisi of former Trade Cabinet Secretary, Moses Kuria; and Jibebe Party of CS William Kabogo. Other notable political leaders in the region with political parties are former Murang’a Governor, Mwangi wa iria; former Permanent Secretary under President Mwai Kibaki, Cyrus Njiru; former Gatanga MP and presidential contender, Peter Kenneth; and former Minister in the Moi government and Speaker for Kiambu County Assembly, Stephen Ndichu. Also notable is Trade CS, Lee Kinyanjui, whose Ubuntu Party is active in Nakuru County. MP Muthoni wa Muchomba is also believed to have her own party, or about to unveil one. 

It is without a doubt a very crowded field, even before Gachagua ventures outside. Over the past two years, he has preached the need for unity at home, almost to the extent of demonizing himself outside the Mountain region. Now is the time to walk the talk. But even as he attempts to walk this steep journey, he has to contend with Uhuru Kenyatta as the most prominent leader from the region. It is difficult, perhaps even impossible to wish away Uhuru and the Kenyatta family. 

Gachagua burnt his boats with the Kenyattas during the 2022 Hustler Campaigns for power. He was at the cutting edge of demonising the Kenyatta family. He spared them no invective that the political mind could invent. In the aftermath of the Ruto victory in the elections, he made it his personal mission to harry and sully the entire family. Not even the family matriarch, Mama Ngina, was spared. Gachagua has since sought reconciliation with the Kenyattas, with little success. 

The Kenyattas are primarily a political family, whatever else they may be. They are also Kenya’s foremost political family, as political families go. It is naïve to attempt to rule them out of the political space. Even if it should only be for the sake of protecting their vast business empire in Kenya and beyond, they must maintain a powerful presence in the political arena. As charity must begin at home, they will be keenly watching the unfolding of things both in the Mountain and beyond. But they will not just watch, they will want to influence, and possibly to drive civic affairs in the Mountain and farther away. It is thought that they have preference for former Interior CS, Fred Matiang’i, who has recently thrown his hat in the ring, as a presidential hopeful. How CDP navigates its way around both Matiang’i and the Kenyatta family will have a telling impact, both on his own future in politics, and on that of his allies and his new party. 

Among the Kenyattas, President Uhuru’s younger brother, Muhoho Kenyatta, is now the person to watch, as Uhuru is constitutionally barred from running for President again, having done the maximum two five-year terms. Muhoho is the next eminently placed Kenyatta to gun for office. Would he pick up the gauntlet, or would he shy away, perhaps out of the thought that the Kenyattas have been on the throne one time too many? Whatever the case, Uhuru has recently made political remarks that have left the ruling class wondering what could be afoot around him. He has been calling upon African youth to stand up for their rights and to resist misgovernance. His remarks have rubbed the wrong way Kenya Kwanza notables and grandees. He possibly has some hares in his political magic bag. Should he pull them out, it is possible that one of them could be his brother Muhoho, while the other one could be Matiang’i. 

Matiang’i has the look of Uhuru’s preferred flagbearer. Following his return to the country after self-exile in the wake of harassment by Kenya Kwanza in their incipient days, photos of the two together have been circulated.  If Matiang’i is Uhuru’s candidate, Muhoho is possibly the preferred running mate. Could this be why the Jubilee Party has recently floated the Matiang’i balloon? It is instructive that Gachagua has been quick to welcome Matiang’i in the opposition space, but equally also quick to advise him not to take up the Jubilee offer.  Instead, Gachagua has advised Matiang’i to fashion his own Kisii dominated party, to bring to the bargaining table. 

Clearly, if he should become the Jubilee candidate, Matiang’i would complicate matters for Gachagua in the Mountain, and at the alliance formation table, should things come to that. First, he would arrive with the Kisii following.  Recent optics in the two Kisii counties have shown that the former Interior CS is the next rallying force there, after the departure of Simeon Nyachae who passed on in 2021. But apart from the Kisii numbers, Matiang’i would also get to the negotiation table with a swathe of the Mountain support, courtesy of the Kenyatta factor. Gachagua will certainly, therefore, continue asking Matiang’i to go back home in Kisii to consolidate his act, and only thereafter talk to the Mountain. 

Setting the Mountain aside for a moment, the question on many pundits’ minds is whether  Gachagua has now unfurled the magic wand to galvanize the Opposition into a lethal united movement. Or, conversely, is he only throwing a new spanner in the Opposition works? The entry was as dramatic as is the vintage Gachagua. It came complete with fiery speeches against his former boss, President William Ruto, and was crowned by a violent invasion by hostile goons. 

Yet there was typically nothing very new about the occasion, except for the party itself and its symbols, instruments, props and gimmicks. In a sense, the impeached former DP unveiled his message as soon as he was impeached in August last year. He has since carried it everywhere in the Mt. Kenya region. It is simply that the Mountain has been betrayed and Ruto must go.  It is of the essence that DCP finds new ways of exciting the electorate, in the Mountain and beyond, with fresh strategic messaging. The country will be waiting for some freshness when the unveiled party is formally launched on 4 June. 

For now, the message remains that Ruto must serve only one term. He must be disrupted and stopped on account of betraying those who supported him on his way to State House. Ruto is also accused of what has been characterised as habitual lying, grand corruption, tribalism and, in a word, misrule. Accordingly, he must serve only one term, and the Opposition must solidify so as to send him home. For his part, President Ruto has dismissed the Opposition as “jokers” who are long on calling him names and saying that he must go, “while offering Kenyans nothing.”

Ruto’s attack dogs have come out with all barrels blazing. Their counter-strategy is simple, and they have been practising all along. They will simply characterise and traduce Gachagua and his party as tribal and wicked. That they are driven by a tribal appetite that seeks to establish a Mt Kenya hegemony over the rest of the country. The engines of this propaganda are sufficiently warmed up. The counter-offensive took off the very same day the Gachagua party was unveiled. 

 It was unfortunate that the unveiling lacked the elements of surprise, shock and awe. This was a factor of the ex-DP having announced his intentions too early. The Mountain, he has said repeatedly, made a mistake in joining up with Ruto in the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), instead of using its own raft to get into a coalition  with him. Accordingly, they have been treated like squatters in the Ruto party. Gachagua gave his nemeses early warning, and far too much time to plan their counter-offensive. Should he probably have gone subterranean and hit them unexpectedly like a sudden thunderbolt? He will probably have to learn the lesson that in poker you keep a blank face. You leave your adversaries anxiously guessing. You don’t open yourself up to be read like a book. He has been far too easy to read. A journey back to the drawing boards of strategic thinking and planning will help him a great deal. As things stand, Ruto and his people are planning how to manage him on June 4 and beyond. Before that, they will have something strong to say on Madaraka Day. 

Meanwhile, the DCK party is largely a revanchist outfit. Its leaders are coming to town feeling angry and betrayed. Apart from broader regional and national concerns, there are personal scores to be settled. Both Gachagua as the party leader and his deputy, Cleophas Malala, feel used and abused by Ruto. They have personal points to prove. They have arrived angry and unforgiving. They will be fighting like wounded buffalos. Ruto can only take them for granted at his own grand risk and peril. They are going to throw everything they have into this fight.  

But even as anger boils over and flows, Gachagua and DCK have other competitions to contend with. As late arrivals into the Opposition space, they must reckon with the reality that there exist earlier claimants to leadership on that landscape. Wiper Party leader, Kalonzo Musyoka, has been the de facto leader of the Opposition, ever since Raila Odinga and ODM chose to cohabit with President Ruto as a part of the Kenya Kwanza Government. DCK’s arrival presents a perfect philosophical antimony in the camp. It is both desirable and undesirable. It is desirable because it arrives with potential for bringing new numbers of voters that the Opposition could otherwise not count on before. But it is also undesirable because it generates further internal competition in an already overcrowded field. The navigation of dialogue and cutting of deals in this space is going to be dicey.

Yet, is the competition a straightforward affair between Kalonzo and Gachagua? Certainly not. The field begins looking like a star-studded galaxy, where each star may want to outshine the rest, and with the joint presidential ticket as the potential apple of discord.  Martha Karua ran for President in 2013 before casting her sights lower in 2017 and 2022, when she ran for governor of Kirinyaga County and deputized Raila Odinga for President, respectively. She has been categorical that this time it is the President or nothing. Will she bolt out if she does not get the joint ticket? Anyone who bolts out can only have the value of a spoiler. Nobody can beat a wily Ruto on their own, what with an IEBC that is already raising eyebrows and opening up of border counties for foreigners to take up Kenyan citizenship! 

Separately, within the current Cabinet, Ruto cannot also be too sure of the entrants from Mt. Kenya. Mutahi Kagwe, William Kabogo, and Lee Kinyanjui had presidential hopes before joining Kenya Kwanza. Never mind what their popularity ratings may have been. Indeed, their nomination for Cabinet was largely seen in their strongholds as a clever ploy to stall them. It is anyone’s guess whether they will stay the Kenya Kwanza course to the bitter end. Indications are that the Ruto regime is going to win for itself ever growing unpopularity in the coming days. This is because it is hard of hearing and disdainfully dismissive of all contrary views, on everything. Its philosophy of government, especially, seems to be about individual accumulation of wealth at the expense of the public. 

 Land acquisition and business deals at home and away is what Kenya Kwanza knows as the reason governments are formed. This has created space for grand corruption, crippling taxation, high cost of living, and negative ethnicity. It has placed in high office trusted homeboys who can help to externalize resources from public coffers. The spinoff is the smell of the skunk as the most remarkable character of the regime. Anyone staying the course with them must, accordingly, prepare to carry part of the smell. If Kagwe and Kinyanjui elect to run away from the skunk in good time, they will crowd the Opposition field further. 

Justin Muturi, Kivutha Kibwana, David Maraga, Reuben Kigame, and Okoiti Omutata, are all names on the cards. How they collectively manage and situate themselves in the Opposition space is critical for joint success. Big egos will need tempering with humility, in the interest of the greater good. 

The one name that is not featured much in the WANTAM (one term) conversation is Gideon Moi and his Kanu Party. And yet, if the Opposition is looking for one term for Ruto, the one person to send him home in the first round is Gideon. Unlike all the other hopefuls, Gideon will split Ruto’s strongholds right in the middle, at the very minimum. He will use that to crown his performance elsewhere and see Ruto pack his bags and return where he came from in 1992; when he emerged through the Youth for Kanu (YK)’92 movement. More laboured, but plausible, efforts will be around Matiang’i and Kalonzo, with the backing of the rest. They are the most viable alternative to a Mountain ticket. A Mt. Kenya ticket, moreover, will be music to Ruto’s ears. The President is itching for every opportunity to paint the Mountain as “selfishly tribal.” His experiments through the gadflies that are Mutahi Ngunyi and MP George Peter Kaluma indicate, so far, that the mud has failed to stick. But will it stick if Gachagua insists that he must run? 

On the other hand, if the Mountain holds the view that Ruto betrayed it after a massive poll for him, will it be willing to take the risk on another outsider? Any hesitance from the Mountain will be easy to understand on account of the bitter fallout between them with Ruto. Yet, if the Mountain insists on carrying the joint ticket, it will play straight into Ruto’s hands. A Mount Kenya presidential candidate is his most ardent prayer, for he believes that the card of “41 tribes against one” that was played in 2007 can be played again, to his advantage.  It is a veritable Catch 22 situation for the Opposition, and especially for Gachagua, DCK and Mt. Kenya. In all, they must stand together, or face another five years of lamentation. 

-Dr Muluka is a communications adviser and secretary general of DNA party