Why Mudavadi is fuming at Western Kenya as 2027 vote nears

Why is Musalia Mudavadi angry? The Prime CS is throwing up uncharacteristic tantrums in public. He is speaking with a sense of monarchical entitlement, like an irritated owner of people. He has told Western Kenya indigenes to quit auditing President William Ruto’s 2022 electoral promises to them. That they do not deserve anything from Ruto, “because you did not vote for this government!”

“Where were you when we made Ruto the president? Stop blaming Musalia for Ruto’s (failed) promises. Why do you think that Ruto should develop this region? What did you do for him? Where were you when I was telling you that he would win the election; and you refused to listen to me? No! Stop it!” he is saying.

But is Mudavadi’s concern about 2022, or is he thinking of 2027? Mudavadi appears more worried about 2027 than upset about 2022. The 2022 mater is so much water under the bridge. The real issue is whether Ruto’s brokerage of Western in next year’s election can work. It is also about fears that the Musalia Mudavadi–Moses Wetang’ula political duet has become irrelevant in the region.

The rise of Edwin Sifuna has upset the applecart, even as TIFA’s latest opinion polls indicate. Sifuna is leading Ruto in the region and tying with him at 31 per cent in the national average of voter preference. That spells disaster not just for Ruto but for elite political brokers like Mudavadi and Wetang’ula.

Their dilemma is intensified by the fact that Sifuna has gained acceptance by other prominent political voices in the region, and especially those of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, and Senators Godfrey Osotsi (Vihiga), and Boni Khalwale (Kakamega). These leaders have gone beyond flirting. They are now a formidable item. TIFA indications are that the region is with them.

Sifuna is a mortal political challenge not just to Ruto, but also to the Luhya legacy political class. Ruto is flirting with the old Western political brokers precisely at the moment when the electorate has dumped them. The team that Sifuna leads in Western does not seem to be just another coalition in the making. It looks more like the beginning of a generational revolt against the political brokerage system itself. And Ruto has himself contributed significantly to the happenings. He set out to destroy ODM by dividing it and incorporating elements of it into his government.

The younger leaders and voters in Raila Odinga’s party have refused to be Ruto’s political pawns. But they are also rejecting traditional ethnic power barons as their automatic representatives. Ask Oburu Oginga. A majority of potential voters, say about 75 per cent, are aged between 18 and 35 years, according to national population demographic disaggregation. Now this is the demographic rejecting the old guards and embracing new leaders. They are making people like Mudavadi and Wetang’ula politically irrelevant, unless they reinvent themselves in new roles.

Mudavadi has traditionally characterised himself as an individual who soars above the storms of passion. He has believed himself to be unflappable, and attributes this to teachings by his late mother, Mama Hannah Mudavadi. That was what he told mourners at her burial a few years ago. But he is now as mad as a hatter. He is banging microphones, angrily telling people to shut up. He is gloating and asking to be left alone; ostensibly to enjoy the trappings of high office.

Like the rest of the country, Western is undergoing generational political change. This is harsh reality that the old guards will find difficult to swallow. While it is in the grip of economic and human rights abuse at the very top, Kenya is yearning for generational change, constitutionalism and accountability. The path towards the Kenya that the new generations want goes through rejection of elite political brokerage that people like Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula represent.

Yet, don’t we have old guards in what looks like successful elite ethnic political power brokerage in the opposition? Yes, true that, as my children say. People like Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka are no less Jurassic Park material than Mudavadi and Wetang’ula. Their isomorphic mimicry in the right political environment, however, shields them from obvious irrelevance.

But the opinion polls tell it all. Kalonzo’s rating in the TIFA poll has dropped from 12 per cent in June to 9 per cent. Gachagua has declined from 7 per cent to 4 per cent. And Fred Matiang’i has dropped from 14 per cent to 5 per cent. What is there to be angry and shout about? What is there to debate on who will send Ruto and the Gang home?

-Dr Muluka is a strategic communications adviser.