ODM, DCP size up popularity ahead of Magarini by-election

Voter apathy and underdevelopment could undermine the chances of immediate former Magarini MP Harrison Kombe of ODM in recapturing the seat in the November 27 by-election in the race against Democracy for the Citizens Party’s (DCP) Stanley Kenga.

Although Kombe has the backing of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) of Senate Speaker Amason Kingi, who hails from Magarini constituency, the situation on the ground might not work in his favour.

The by-election was occasioned by the nullification of the August 2022 General Election results by the Supreme Court.

Reports that the broad-based government was yet to open the wallet and that Kombe has limited resources may also raise his rivals’ chances, particularly for Kenga, who lost by only 21 votes in the 2022 election.

In 2022, Kenga polled 11,925 votes against Kombe’s 11,946, a difference of 21 votes.

With more than 80,000 registered voters, Magarini constituency is said to be experiencing its worst voter apathy, going by the last General Election, blamed on underdevelopment and poverty, where the population has lost hope in its political leadership.

And with the perception of the Ruto government, which Kombe is allied to, and the current situation on the ground, many believe that personal political weight will be a factor in swaying votes.

Kenga decamped from UDA to DCP after he realised that his party was backing Kombe under the broad-based arrangement.

The main issues identified in Magarini are grinding poverty, squatters crisis and lack of water, although the constituency hosts the source of the Baricho pipeline that serves Malindi, Kilifi and Mombasa towns.

Almost everyone in Magarini is said to be a squatter, while many parcels, including those owned by the Agricultural Development Corporation, are contested by the people.

Earlier this year, President Ruto promised to address the squatter issue after Kilifi Senator Stewart Madzayo said it was one of the many problems facing the residents since time immemorial.

Most of the roads there are impassable and a source of public outrage among residents who blame both the county and national government.

Areas bordering the sea face environmental issues due to salt firms that have expanded their farms and reportedly affected fresh water sources and caused environmental destruction. The firms are also accused of exploiting the workers who operate under bad working conditions with poor pay.

Residents are mainly subsistence farmers growing maize, beans, cassava, cowpeas and green grams for food. The area is the main source of pineapples in the entire Coast region, attracting some farmers from upcountry.

The economy around Ngomeni, Mjanaheri, Mambrui and Sabaki villages is dominated mainly by artisanal fishing, while the upper part of the constituency relies a lot on charcoal burning.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 2022 poverty index shows that Magarini constituency has an overall poverty rate of 47.5 per cent, or almost half of the population lives below the national poverty line.

The national overall poverty headcount rate in 2022 was 39.8 per cent. The overall poverty rate for Kilifi County is estimated to be higher, at approximately 71.7 per cent. 

In the battle for the Magarini, the ODM party hopes to avoid the mistakes that cost it the Msambweni seat in Kwale County in the December 2021 mini poll, where a newly registered UDA won.

To the broad-based government and United Opposition, the battle for the soul of Magarini draws similarities to the Msambweni by-election because a win for the latter will elevate it to popularity in the Coast, as was the case for President William Ruto in Msambweni when he registered his first MP in the region dominated by ODM.

In 2021, ODM was in a handshake deal with Jubilee Party, while Ruto challenged the “status quo” as he contested like a government outsider.

DCP also hopes to capitalise on the broad-based government’s incumbency disadvantage and disorganisation to capture the seat.

However, for the leading candidates, Kombe’s and DCP’s Kenga, the by-election is a rematch after the 2022 gruelling battle between them.

Kombe is in the by-election for the second time in his political career after he beat a field of rivals, including the current Senate speaker Kingi, in a tough by-election in 2002.

In this race, other candidates are Amos Katana (Independent), Sarah Wahito Gakahu of the Kenya Moja Movement and Emmanuel Kalama of the We Alliance Party.

Others are Reverend John Sulubu of the Kenya Social Congress, Furaha Chengo Ngumbao of the Democratic National Alliance, Hamadi Chadi of the Roots Party and Jacob Thethe of the Federal Party of Kenya.

This past week, Wiper Patriotic Front party leader Kalonzo Musyoka led the United Opposition team in campaigning for Kenga, vowing that his formation will clinch the seat to shame the broad-based government.

Kenga urged voters to elect him since he was best placed to represent them at the National Assembly.

“The whole country is looking at Magarini, and as residents, you should vote for me so that we shame them. They are saying that there is little time left, but I assure you that I will perform better than the time my competitor has been MP,” said Kenga.

Kenga stated that he will work closely with the national and county governments and other partners to improve education standards.

“Education has always been close to my heart because I understand the power it has in changing an individual’s life, and this is why I promise, if elected, to work with different stakeholders to make a better change in Magarini,” Kenga said.