Why universities are losing students

A sharp decline in student numbers has hit universities four years after President William Ruto’s new funding model was introduced, exposing deep cracks in the system.

Data from the Ministry of Education shows that university enrolment has fallen to a seven-year low.

Fresh figures tabled before the National Treasury in the Education Sector Report 2026/27–2027/28 reveal that student numbers dropped from an all-time high of 680,768 in the 2023/24 academic year to 547,092 in 2024/25.

This means institutions have lost 133,676 students in just one year, marking a sharp and abrupt break from years of steady growth.

The drop in student numbers comes despite a rapid increase in the number of students qualifying for university.

In the report, the Ministry of Education links the decline directly to the rollout of the new funding and placement system under President Ruto, but argues that many students are opting to join technical colleges.

“The decline was largely attributed to the introduction of new university funding and placement models, which have redirected some students towards Technical and Vocational Education and Training (Tvet) institutions,” the report states.

An analysis by The Standard over the past seven years shows a steady upward trend in university enrolment, culminating in the 2023/24 peak before the current dramatic decline, the first major contraction in nearly a decade.

The data shows that enrolment rose from 542,005 students in the 2018/19 academic year to 547,133 in 2019/20, before increasing more sharply to 571,510 in 2020/21.

The numbers grew further in 2021/22, when enrolment rose to 621,231, marking one of the most significant single-year increases.

This upward trend continued, with enrolment climbing to 638,479 in 2022/23 eventually peaking at 680,768 in 2023/24.

The pattern, however, was abruptly reversed in the 2024/25 academic year, when enrolment plunged to 547,092 students.

This represents a 19.6 per cent decline, effectively wiping out gains accumulated over the previous four years and pushing university enrolment back to levels last recorded in 2019/20.

The decline comes as the last cohort of students under the old funding model, also known as the Differentiated Unit Cost (DUC) model, exits university.

While presenting the budget estimates for the 2026/27 financial year in Parliament, Higher Education Principal Secretary Beatrice Inyangala said only students pursuing Engineering and Medicine remain under the old funding model.

This means the vast majority of university students are now under the new model introduced in 2023 by President Ruto.

Questions are now emerging over whether uncertainty and affordability challenges have slowed students’ transition into universities.

Onesmus Maluki, the Universities Academic Staff Union organising secretary, argued that the decline in enrolment, despite rising university qualification rates, could indicate deeper challenges.

“This could either be students who are deferring, dropping out, or reconsidering their options altogether,” Maluki said in a telephone interview.

While the government insists that students bypassing universities are enrolling in technical colleges, stakeholders in those institutions are also raising concerns over increasing dropout rates. Tvet trainers argue that fees in public institutions have nearly doubled within a year, fundamentally altering their position as the more affordable alternative and contributing to higher dropout rates.

Under the modular curriculum introduced in May 2025, tuition fees increased from about Sh56,000 to Sh105,000 per year, excluding accommodation, examination fees, tools, materials and other living expenses.

This sharp increase has triggered lower enrolment and rising dropout rates in Tvet institutions, undermining their capacity to absorb students who may be choosing not to attend university.

Trainers warn that the increased financial burden is locking out learners from poor and middle-income households—the very groups the reforms were intended to support.

According to the Kenya Union of Technical and Vocational Education Trainers, the situation has been worsened by gaps in government capitation, with only students who enrolled in September 2023 currently benefiting from support. Those who enrolled in 2024 and later have largely been left without funding, forcing institutions to rely on limited bursaries and private sponsorship.

Appearing before the National Assembly Departmental Committee on Education, Tvet Principal Secretary Esther Muoria said the State Department required Sh28.336 billion to fund scholarships in technical colleges but had received only Sh9.2 billion from the National Treasury. This leaves a funding shortfall of Sh19.16 billion.

Muoria told the committee, chaired by Tinderet MP Julius Melly, that the deficit had limited scholarships to only the most vulnerable students and was contributing to increased dropout rates.

“This shortfall is expected to escalate the accumulation of pending bills for services provided by suppliers, increase dropouts and trigger litigation due to unmet financial obligations,” the PS told Parliament in May.

The government’s argument that students are simply shifting from universities to Tvet institutions is also beginning to come under scrutiny.

Rising fees in technical institutions have eroded their long-standing position as a low-cost alternative, effectively closing what was intended to be a safety valve within the education system. The results have seen a strain with students locked out of both university and technical education.

The revelations now put a litmus test on the new funding model that the President had presented as the solution to the longstanding university funding crisis for the institutions that are drowning in massive debts.